The US penalises India again for buying Russian oil
The test Between 26 Oct 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, the US puts a new or reinstated tariff on Indian goods, or blocking sanctions on an Indian oil refining company, on the stated ground of India's purchases of Russian crude.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Likelihood ↓ Since 16 Oct 2026: Graham Act duties waived with no end date (EO 14436).
Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- US imports from India US$103.8bn in 2025 and US$68.0bn Jan-Aug 2026 [4]
- Rubio toured the Jamnagar refinery complex on 21 Oct 2026, hosted by Reliance's chairman; talks covered energy security, data centres and US-India commercial ties [9]
- Rubio said on 18 Oct that India had voluntarily diversified its energy supplies [6]
- AP: the president called the waiver indefinite, citing national security; AP linked it to a fuel deal with Russia and pump prices; Congress in recess until after 3 Nov [5]
- India bought about EUR 4.1bn of Russian fossil fuels in Sep 2026, EUR 3.6bn crude; crude down 13% m/m, lowest since April [3]
- EO 14436 of 16 Oct 2026: 100% duty increase on the largest 5 importers of Russian crude or gas for purchases from 18 Oct, waived until the President or Secretary of State decides otherwise [2]
Why it matters
The US put an extra 25% duty on Indian goods over Russian oil in August 2025 and removed it from 7 February 2026, when India committed to stop importing Russian oil. India still bought EUR 3.6bn of Russian crude in September 2026. On 16 October the president set and then waived 100% duties on the largest buyers. The risk is that Washington penalises India again.
Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: India bought EUR 3.6bn of Russian crude in Sep 2026 (CREA), after the US order recorded its commitment to stop; criticism in Congress. Brakes: indefinite waiver, Rubio's praise and trade talks, US diesel needs, falling Indian volumes. Wider than the Graham Act risk alone (Likelihood 3).
Why Impact 5 Threshold case a 25% duty on Indian goods.
The other facts on file (2)
Where it sits
How it spreads
Between 26 Oct 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, the US puts a new or reinstated tariff on Indian goods, or blocking sanctions on an Indian oil refining company, on the stated ground of India's purchases of Russian crude.
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- US-India tradeA 25% duty, as in 2025 [1], would price part of US$103.8bn of annual imports out [4].
- Oil flowsIndian refiners would choose between discounted Russian crude and the US market; other suppliers would gain (Strature's view).
- Fuel marketsCREA puts Jamnagar's oil-product exports to the US at EUR 122mn in September [3]; a penalty would tighten diesel.
Who is exposed
- Countries
- India, United States, Russia
- Sectors
- Energy and pipelines
- Goods
- Crude oil, Refined fuels
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Quiet tolerance
The waiver holds and a US-India trade deal is signed; Russian volumes keep falling.
- S2
Reinstatement
A Commerce finding that India has resumed imports leads to a duty.
- S3
Graham duties
The waiver is lifted for the largest buyers after USTR reports.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | CREA October and November figures for India |
| S2 | A Commerce or State finding under EO 14384 |
| S3 | A USTR report or a determination under section 4 of EO 14436 |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- 3 Nov 2026 US midterm elections; Congress returns afterwards [5] Declared · Outside event
- 7 Apr 2027 OFAC General Licence 135 (issued 9 Oct 2026) on imports of Russian-origin diesel runs to this date [10] Declared · Outside event
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The other side
If the waiver holds, India keeps its US market and its access to discounted crude. A US-India trade deal would lock in lower tariffs.
Connected in Strature
- Crude oil
- Refined fuels
- India
- United States
- Russia
- The US lifts its Graham Act waiver and puts secondary tariffs on a buyer of Russian oil Shares a channel: Parent card, defined narrower: the Graham Act only; this card counts any US penalty on India [7].
- The US puts Graham Act secondary tariffs on Chinese goods over Russian oil Shares a channel: The same EO 14436 duties and waiver cover China [2].
- The US eases sanctions on Russia's oil majors while the EU keeps its Russia sanctions Shares a channel: The 16 Oct waiver moved both [2][5].
- A big fuel exporter bans or halts diesel exports to protect its home market Shares a channel: US demand for diesel weighs against a penalty on Indian refiners [5].
Sources
9 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Executive Order 14384, Modifying Duties To Address Threats to the United States by the Government of the Russian Federation. Federal Register via GovInfo · 11 Feb 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Implementing the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 (EO 14436). The White House · 16 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- September 2026: Monthly analysis of Russian fossil fuel exports and sanctions. CREA · 2026-10-16 (page also shows 2026-10-20) · Think tank · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Trade in Goods with India. US Census Bureau · 2026-10 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Trump's decision to waive Russian sanctions outrages Congress, but no quick counter seen (AP). PBS NewsHour · 17 Oct 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Why Rubio is visiting Reliance's oil refinery in India, the world's largest. Al Jazeera · 20 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- World risk “The US lifts its Graham Act waiver and puts secondary tariffs on a buyer of Russian oil”. Strature · 25 Oct 2026 · Think tank · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Rubio meets Mukesh Ambani at Jamnagar; talks span energy security, data centres, US collaboration. Business Today · 21 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 27 Oct 2026
- United States of America: OFAC authorises transactions for imports of Russian diesel fuel (General License 135, 9 Oct 2026, to 7 Apr 2027). Global Trade Alert · 9 Oct 2026 · Think tank · confidence medium · retrieved 27 Oct 2026
Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: reviewed · All risks