Gulf war / Hormuz · Strature analysis, not from the brief
Gulf war / Hormuz: what is at stake for Brunei
Brunei is mainly a seller: 5.0 Mt of LNG in 2025 into a market short of Qatari cargoes. Its refinery took 16.3% of its crude from the Gulf. Low band.
Theme band Low
16.3%
Gulf share of crude imports, 2024
5
LNG exports, Mt, 2025
1.12
Gulf crude, Mt, 2024
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Risks
- UAE and Saudi crude, 1.12 Mt in 2024, feeds the refinery; part of the UAE crude may load inside the Strait.
- Replacement crude is priced off a Brent that averaged US$114 in Sep 2026.
- Most other crude comes from Malaysia (39.0%) and Russia (20.0%).
Opportunities
- Qatar and the UAE shipped 85.6 Mt of LNG in 2025, 20.0% of world trade, almost all through the Strait. Brunei already supplies Vietnam, where Qatar held 24% of LNG imports in 2025; Brunei and Malaysia supplied the rest.
- Spot LNG in Asia rose from 13.4 to 19.4 US$/MMBtu between Mar and Jul 2026, raising the value of any spot cargo.
Uncertainties
- How much Brunei LNG is sold spot rather than on fixed contracts, which decides the gain.
- Whether the UAE crude loads at Fujairah (outside the Strait) or inside the Gulf.
What to watch
- 20 Nov 2026F-0074 resolves. A renewed strike could raise Asian LNG prices and cut Gulf crude loadings.
- MonthlyJKM spot LNG.
- MonthlyBrent and refinery crude arrivals by origin.
Exposure by lens
| Lens | Figure | Band | Published line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crude oilEnergy | 16.3% 2024Share of crude imports from Hormuz Gulf producers (value) | Low | High ≥50% · Medium 25–50% · Low 10–25% |
Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.
Gulf
Drawn to scale from zero. * Our calculation from the cited figures.
Briefs and questions
- T-003 · Does reopening the Strait restore Qatar's LNG exports? Qatari LNG out; Asian buyers seek other sellers
- S-001 · How does a strike reach buyers of Gulf energy? F-0074 Renewed strike, 61%, our estimate, scored when it resolves
Sources cited
- GIIGNL Annual Report 2026 (2025 trade; data GIIGNL and Kpler) (2025; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- US EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026 (released 6 Oct 2026) (Sep 2026; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- WITS/UN Comtrade: BRN crude (HS 270900) imports by partner 2024 (2024; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- TBS; IndexBox (as recorded in BGD-gulf-war-hormuz-deep-19) (2026; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
Our calculations
- Share of crude imports from Hormuz Gulf producers (value): 16.3% (= (505.5 + 166.4) / 4127.8)
- Crude imports from Hormuz Gulf producers (weight): 1.12 Mt (= 0.85 + 0.27)
- Gulf crude to replace if Gulf supply stops for 3 months: 0.28 Mt (= 1.12 × 3 / 12)
Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 6 Oct 2026. General research, not advice. Who is exposed to the Gulf war / Hormuz