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Your exposure · Country · Sub-Saharan Africa

Mauritius

Mauritius bought 52.94% of mineral fuels from Gulf producers in 2024, mostly the UAE. Under a five-year agreement reported in Aug 2026, Indian Oil is to supply all its petrol, diesel and jet imports (press). Approved reading

This page answers: Which questions do our briefs address about Mauritius?

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  • Region Sub-Saharan Africa · East Africa and the Horn
  • Readings updated
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Your exposure

Mauritius in our readings

Mauritius is in 2 of our country readings; High in 1.

  • Gulf war / Hormuz High
  • Sovereign debt Low

Each band as published in its reading, against that reading’s stated lines; the readings are never combined into one band.

Outlook to November 2027

  • Geopolitics and conflict Not yet set
  • Trade, tariffs and sanctions Not yet set
  • Supply chains and chokepoints Not yet set
  • Energy and resources High
  • Technology and cyber Not yet set
  • Regulation and compliance Not yet set
  • Finance and markets Low
The seven outlooks in full: why, and the index

Seven categories, 12 months ahead. The outlook is our judgement, approved by the Principal. The index measures open data on 0–10; higher means more risk. How they are set

Compare Mauritius on the outlook map

Dates for Mauritius on the risk calendar

Risks that reach Mauritius

  • Gulf war / Hormuz High

    • F-0074 · A renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran, 22 Aug-20 Nov 2026 · 61%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 20 Nov 2026 · Open · brief S-001

    Note, : US Central Command reported strikes on Iranian territory on 30 Aug and 1 Sep 2026; this question resolves on 20 Nov under its rules.

    Strait of Hormuz

Show all 2 risks that reach Mauritius
  • Sovereign debt Low

    No forecast in our register is attached to this reading.

Each forecast is our estimate, scored when it resolves, in the register’s own words.

World risks for Mauritius

All world risks that touch Mauritius

Goods and chokepoints

Exhibit S-1 · Supply balance

How much Mauritius makes, buys and sells, good by good

Consumption = production + imports − exports (± stock change).
Reading the supply balance

Supply balance first, suppliers second.

One card per good, each in its own unit. Goods are never added together.

Each card shows the latest complete period: the newest with consumption and at least one of production, imports and exports on file.

Figures of 1,000 kb/d or more show in million barrels a day (mb/d).

Periods are marketing years, as published.

What to watch

  • Quarterly Statistics Mauritius trade releases: imports from the UAE and of refined products. Gulf war / Hormuz
  • As announced First Indian Oil cargoes under the five-year agreement. Gulf war / Hormuz
  • As announced State Trading Corporation tenders and heavy fuel oil supply from India. Gulf war / Hormuz
  • End of FY2026/27 FY2026/27 ends: the outturn against the 3.7% deficit target. Sovereign debt
  • Annual (last: 2026 Article IV) IMF Article IV consultation (annual). Sovereign debt
  • Date not published Moody's periodic review; the outlook has been negative since Jan 2025, as reported. Sovereign debt

Questions firms in this position often review

  • Which of the risks above reach our own suppliers, customers or assets in Mauritius?
  • Which of the forecasts above bear on our plans in Mauritius, and which outcome would change them?
  • Which dated items under What to watch fall inside our next planning cycle?

General research, not advice. Request a free pilot

Full analyst view

Open Mauritius on the map of brief questions

Country analysis

Questions our briefs address

The questions our published briefs address that touch Mauritius.

Gulf war / Hormuz · Strature analysis, not from the brief

Gulf war / Hormuz: what is at stake for Mauritius

Mauritius bought 52.94% of mineral fuels from Gulf producers in 2024, mostly the UAE. Under a five-year agreement reported in Aug 2026, Indian Oil is to supply all its petrol, diesel and jet imports (press).

Theme band High

52.9%

of mineral fuel imports from Gulf producers, by value (2024, Statistics Mauritius)

9,581

Rs m of Gulf mineral fuels to replace in 3 months, on 2024 values (our calculation)

50.8%

of mineral fuel imports from the UAE alone (2024)

21est.

days of fuel stocks left on 30 Mar 2026 (reported, estimate)

Read the full panel

Risks

  • The UAE alone supplied 50.82% of mineral fuel imports in 2024; India was next with 12.53%.
  • The Commerce Minister said a heavy fuel oil cargo could not leave Fujairah after the war began, and the State Trading Corporation ran an emergency tender on 9 Mar 2026 (press report, May 2026). Estimate from press or commentary
  • Bids in that tender ranged from US$227 to US$369 a tonne (press report). Estimate from press or commentary
  • Fuel stocks were reported at 21 days on 30 Mar 2026, with usage restrictions and costlier fuel from Singapore (press summary, estimate). Estimate from press or commentary

Opportunities

  • Indian Oil is to supply the entire import requirement of petrol, diesel and jet fuel for five years under an agreement reported in Aug 2026 (press report); once it runs, that supply would no longer be bought from Gulf refineries directly. Estimate from press or commentary
  • A non-Gulf route exists: supply from Singapore was offered at the day's Platts price in Mar 2026 (press report). Estimate from press or commentary

Uncertainties

  • The start date of the Indian Oil contract is not stated; a minister said in May 2026 that petrol and diesel under the next agreement would come only from August. Estimate from press or commentary
  • No 2025 split by country and product is published: the Q4 2025 release gives refined product imports of Rs 66,007m but no origins.
  • Oman loads outside the Strait and is not counted: it supplied 12.19% of mineral fuels in 2023 and 1.67% in 2024.
  • Heavy fuel oil is not listed in the Indian Oil agreement, so that part of supply may still come from the Gulf. Estimate from press or commentary

What to watch

  • 20 Nov 2026F-0074 resolves: a renewed strike on Iran could close the Strait again.
  • QuarterlyStatistics Mauritius trade releases: imports from the UAE and of refined products.
  • As announcedFirst Indian Oil cargoes under the five-year agreement.
  • As announcedState Trading Corporation tenders and heavy fuel oil supply from India.

Exposure by channel

Exposure band per channel, with the figure and the published line
ChannelFigureBandPublished line
Refined productsEnergy52.9% 2024Share of mineral fuel imports (SITC section 3) from Hormuz Gulf producers (value)HighHigh ≥40% · Medium 20–40% · Low 10–20%

Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.

Gulf share of Mauritius mineral fuel imports, 2022-2024 (%)
Share of mineral fuel imports (SITC section 3) from Hormuz Gulf producers (value): 53.2% (2023)202353.2Share of mineral fuel imports (SITC section 3) from Hormuz Gulf producers (value): 52.9% (2024)202452.9Share of mineral fuel imports (SITC section 3) from Hormuz Gulf producers (value): 35.2% (2022)202235.2

GulfElsewhere

Drawn to scale from zero. Source: Statistics Mauritius, Digest of External Trade Statistics 2024, Table 10: Imports by section and country of origin, 2017-2024.

Briefs and questions

Sources cited

Estimates from press or commentary

Our calculations

  • Gulf mineral fuels to replace if Gulf loadings stop for 3 months, on 2024 values: 9,581 Rs million (= Rs 38,322m × 3/12)

Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 3 Nov 2026. General research, not advice. Who else is exposed: Gulf war / Hormuz →

Sovereign debt · Strature analysis, not from the brief

Sovereign debt: what is at stake for Mauritius

Interest takes about a tenth of Mauritius's revenue: 10.4% in 2024 and 12.7% in the FY2026/27 budget. The interest line alone is reached. A Low band.

Theme band Low

10.4%

Interest, % of revenue (2024, World Bank)

12.7%

Interest, % of revenue (FY2026/27 budget)

87.8%

Public sector debt, % of GDP (end-June 2026, estimate)

3.7%

Budget deficit, % of GDP (FY2026/27 budget)

Read the full panel

Risks

  • The budget puts interest at about MUR 30bn in FY2026/27, up 12% on the year.
  • Public sector debt is estimated at 87.8% of GDP at end-June 2026; the IMF put public debt at 86% at end-June 2025 and expects it to stay elevated.
  • Moody's rates Mauritius Baa3 with a negative outlook, as reported; the agency's own release was not read. Estimate from press or commentary
  • Budget revenue includes MUR 15bn of property income, up from MUR 3bn (MCCI summary). Separately, Moody's is reported to treat MUR 10bn of expected Chagos-related revenue as uncertain (press report). Estimate from press or commentary

Opportunities

  • The budget aims to cut the deficit to 3.7% of GDP in FY2026/27 and 3.0% in FY2027/28.
  • External borrowing is small: public external debt service was 5.2% of exports in 2024, and no bondholder principal falls due in 2026-2028 on the end-2024 schedule.

Uncertainties

  • The FY2026/27 figures are budget estimates; the summary read rounds interest to MUR 30bn.
  • Debt measures differ: central government debt is 79.4% of GDP, public sector debt 87.8%.

What to watch

  • End of FY2026/27FY2026/27 ends: the outturn against the 3.7% deficit target.
  • Jun 2027 (expected)Next budget speech, with new interest and debt estimates.
  • Annual (last: 2026 Article IV)IMF Article IV consultation (annual).
  • Date not publishedMoody's periodic review; the outlook has been negative since Jan 2025, as reported.

Exposure by channel

Exposure band per channel, with the figure and the published line
ChannelFigureBandPublished line
Interest burdenRevenue10.4% of revenue 2024Interest payments, % of revenue (central government)LowHigh ≥30% · Medium 20–30% · Low 10–20%
External debt serviceCapital and finance5.2% of exports 2024Public and publicly guaranteed external debt service, % of exports of goods, services and primary incomeBelow lineHigh ≥21% · Medium 15–21% · Low 10–15%
Refinancing wallCapital and finance9.8% of reserves 2026-2028 vs reserves 2025External public principal due 2026-2028, % of reservesBelow lineHigh ≥100% · Medium 50–100% · Low 25–50%
China creditorDependence3.7% of PPG external debt 2024Share of public external debt owed to ChinaBelow lineHigh ≥33% · Medium 20–33% · Low 10–20%
Default arrearsCapital and financeUS$0m 2025 (preliminary)Sovereign debt in default (all creditors)Below lineHigh ≥5% of GDP · Medium 1–5% of GDP · Low <1% of GDP but ≥US$1bn

Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.

Mauritius: interest, % of revenue
Interest payments, % of revenue (budget estimate): 12.7% of revenue (FY2026/27 (budget)) (our calculation)FY2026/27 (budget)*12.7Interest payments, % of revenue (central government): 10.4% of revenue (2024)202410.4

Drawn to scale from zero. Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators (GC.XPN.INTP.RV.ZS; from IMF Government Finance Statistics). * Our calculation from the cited figures.

Sources cited

Estimates from press or commentary

Our calculations

  • Interest payments, % of revenue (budget estimate): 12.7% of revenue (= interest / total revenue × 100)
  • External public principal due 2026-2028, % of reserves: 9.8% of reserves (= projected PPG principal 2026-2028 / total reserves × 100)
  • Share of public external debt owed to China: 3.7% of PPG external debt (= debt owed to China / PPG external debt × 100)

Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 3 Nov 2026. General research, not advice.

ISO 3166-1 name: Mauritius (MUS). Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty.

Sources and licences

No figure on this page yet.

Cite this page Strature, “Mauritius”, Strature GPS, https://strature.net/gps/mus/, 11 Nov 2026.

  • We say “the Gulf” for the sea also called the Persian Gulf or the Arabian Gulf.
  • General research, not advice.
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