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World risk · Geopolitics and conflict

The Chagos treaty is still not in force on 3 Nov 2027

The test On 3 Nov 2027 the UK-Mauritius treaty on the Chagos Archipelago, signed on 22 May 2025, has not entered into force (judged on that date).

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
6Elevated steady this month
Impact
4Elevated steady this month
Breadth4
Depth1
Duration5
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. The session ended on 29 Apr 2026 and the bill made no further progress; the treaty is not in force; Andy Burnham said on 21 Sep 2026 the UK would work with Mauritius and the US; Ramgoolam began talks in London on 26 Sep; Ramful called sovereignty non-negotiable [3]

Why it matters

The UK-Mauritius treaty on the Chagos Archipelago, signed on 22 May 2025, needs a UK law before the UK can ratify it. That bill fell when the parliamentary session ended on 29 Apr 2026, after the US President turned against the deal. Talks between the three governments resumed in September 2026, but no new bill has been reported.

Why Likelihood 6 Pushes: the US President's objection; the bill fell with the session; no new bill reported. Brakes: three-way talks since 21 Sep 2026. Two named sources lean this way. Not 7: neither states it as the base case, and a new bill could still pass inside the window.

The other facts on file (4)
  • By 22 Feb 2026 the bill had cleared every stage but the Lords' consideration of Commons amendments; on 18 Feb the US President contradicted his administration's support; the UK must pass a bill before it ratifies [1] (22 Feb 2026)
  • Richard Ekins: the bill has run out of time in the Lords; citing The Times, no ratification legislation in the King's Speech [2] (11 Apr 2026)
  • Moody's left expected Chagos revenue of Rs10bn (1.3% of GDP) out of its 2025-26 deficit estimate as uncertain [4] (20 Apr 2026)
  • Moody's June 2026 projections still exclude Chagos-linked revenue of about 1.3% of GDP [5] (28 Jun 2026)

Where it sits

11. The Chagos treaty is still not in force on 3 Nov 2027: Elevated impact · possible (Chagos Archipelago · Sovereignty is disputed.)1 The Chagos treaty is stillnot in force on 3 Nov 2027Elevated impact · possible · Chagos Archipelago · Sovereignty is disputed.CHAGOS TREATY STALLS0500 kmat 6°SMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
11. The Chagos treaty is still not in force on 3 Nov 2027: Elevated impact · possible (Chagos Archipelago · Sovereignty is disputed.)1 Chagos treatystallsCHAGOS TREATY STALLS0500 kmat 6°SMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.

If

On 3 Nov 2027 the UK-Mauritius treaty on the Chagos Archipelago, signed on 22 May 2025, has not entered into force (judged on that date).

Not under way

Channels 3 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. Public financeThe Chagos money does not arrive, widening the deficit [4][5].
  3. SovereigntyThe handover waits for ratification [1].

Who is exposed

No figure on file: Mauritius.

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    New bill

    The three governments agree terms and the UK passes a new bill.

  2. S2

    Long stall

    Talks go on without a bill.

  3. S3

    Legal route

    Mauritius goes to an international court.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1A bill introduced in the new session
S2No bill by mid-2027
S3A filing announced by Port Louis

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 3 Nov 2027 Date on which the event is judged [3] Declared · Strature date

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SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · MAURITIUS · strature.net

The other side

A deal with US support could give Mauritius a firmer settlement (Strature's view).

Connected in Strature

Sources

5 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Has the UK-Mauritius Chagos Treaty stalled?. Mauritius Times (David Snoxell) · 22 Feb 2026 · Commentary · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  2. This isn't the end of the Chagos debacle. The Spectator (Richard Ekins) · 11 Apr 2026 · Commentary · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  3. UK-Mauritius Chagos sovereignty deal stalls amid fears of further delays. Al Jazeera · 2 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  4. Mauritius: Moody's Downgrade Risk Rises. L'Express (via AllAfrica) · 20 Apr 2026 · Commentary · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  5. Ile Maurice: Moody's reconnaît les progrès du pays. L'Express (via AllAfrica) · 28 Jun 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026

Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks