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World risk · Energy and resources

Mauritius orders rotating power cuts because fuel or generating capacity falls short

The test Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027 the government or the Central Electricity Board orders scheduled or rotating power cuts (load-shedding) for household or business customers on at least one day because fuel or generating capacity falls short, not because of a grid fault or a cyclone, by an official notice or two news reports.

Not under way · Confidence: low · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
3Low steady this month
Impact
4Elevated steady this month
Breadth4
Depth3
Duration2
Hard to substitute6
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

Why it matters

Mauritius makes most of its power from imported oil. In March 2026 a fuel cargo failed to arrive, stocks fell to about 21 days and the government imposed curbs on electricity use. An emergency plan in April raised tariffs and set a larger fuel reserve, so rotating cuts remain a weak case unless supply fails again.

Why Likelihood 3 Push: a fuel supply exposed to the Gulf, shown by costly cargoes and an alert into the summer. Brakes: the larger fuel stock plan and an Indian supply deal in progress. One live driver held by blockers.

The other facts on file (4)
  • An oil shipment did not arrive; 21 days of fuel left; costlier fuel secured from Singapore; electricity use restricted [1] (26 Mar 2026)
  • Cabinet plan: tariffs up 15% from 1 May 2026; strategic fuel stock of 30 to 45 days; curbs on non-essential lighting; heavy-fuel-oil deal with India being finalised [2] (10 Apr 2026)
  • Officials estimated a 100 MW capacity shortfall and sought a 90-110 MW floating plant by January 2026 [3] (30 Jul 2025)
  • Central Electricity Board energy alert to end-November 2026; three heavy-fuel-oil cargoes of over 30,000 tonnes imported since February at close to double usual prices; summer demand near 600 MW [4] (25 May 2026)

Where it sits

11. Mauritius orders rotating power cuts because fuel or generating capacity falls short: Elevated impact · unlikely (placed at the country)1 Mauritius power cutsElevated impact · unlikelyMAURITIUS POWER CUTS0250 kmat 20°SMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
11. Mauritius orders rotating power cuts because fuel or generating capacity falls short: Elevated impact · unlikely (placed at the country)1 Mauritiuspower cutsMAURITIUS POWER CUTS0200 kmat 20°SMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.

If

Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027 the government or the Central Electricity Board orders scheduled or rotating power cuts (load-shedding) for household or business customers on at least one day because fuel or generating capacity falls short, not because of a grid fault or a cyclone, by an official notice or two news reports.

Not under way

Channels 3 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. BusinessA cut stops hotels, factories and offices in the financial centre (Strature's view).
  3. Public financeEmergency fuel at higher cost adds to the import bill [1][4].

Sectors 1

  • Energy and pipelines

Countries 1

Who is exposed

No figure on file: Mauritius.

Sectors
Energy and pipelines
Goods
Heavy fuel oil, Diesel

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Stocks hold

    The reserve and the Indian deal cover supply.

  2. S2

    Curbs again

    A late cargo brings use curbs but no rota.

  3. S3

    Rota

    Fuel or capacity falls short and cuts are scheduled.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1Stocks of 30 days or more through early 2027
S2A new government appeal to save electricity
S3A Central Electricity Board load-shedding timetable

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. Nov 2026 The Central Electricity Board's energy alert period ends [4] Declared · Strature date
  2. Dec 2026 Summer peak demand (December 2026 to March 2027) [4] Tentative · Window
  3. 3 Nov 2027 End of the scored window [2] Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · MAURITIUS · strature.net

The other side

The crisis speeds the move to solar and storage (Strature's view).

Connected in Strature

Sources

4 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. South Sudan and Mauritius impose electricity curbs as Iran war triggers fuel fears in Africa. The Star (Kenya) · 26 Mar 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  2. Ile Maurice: Le pays déploie un plan d'urgence pour protéger son économie. L'Express (via AllAfrica) · 10 Apr 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  3. Mauritius turns to fossil fuels amid looming power crisis. Ecofin Agency · 30 Jul 2025 · News · confidence low · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  4. Ile Maurice: Le CEB sonne l'alerte sur l'énergie et mobilise les citoyens. L'Express (via AllAfrica) · 25 May 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026

Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks