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World risk · Supply chains and chokepoints

Mauritius raises a Class III cyclone warning in the 2026-27 season

The test Between 4 Nov 2026 and 30 Apr 2027 the Mauritius Meteorological Services issues a Class III or Class IV cyclone warning for the island of Mauritius.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 4 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
6Elevated steady this month
Impact
3Low steady this month
Breadth4
Depth2
Duration2
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. The Mauritius Meteorological Services issue Class III so that about six daylight hours remain before gusts of 120 km/h, and Class IV once such gusts are recorded [5]

Why it matters

Mauritius raised Class III or higher cyclone warnings in January 2024 and February 2025, and both times the airport closed. The 2025-26 season brought only a Class 1 warning. A Class III warning means gusts of 120 km/h are expected within about six hours of daylight.

Why Likelihood 6 Twice in the last 36 months (January 2024, February 2025), so not below 3. Pushes: a Class III or higher warning in two of the last three seasons, and a third in 2023. Brakes: none in 2025-26; no official outlook read for this season. Not 7: no official outlook. 6.

The other facts on file (5)
  • For Cyclone Belal the Mauritius Meteorological Services raised the warning to the maximum, level four, early on 16 Jan 2024 and lifted all warnings that afternoon; one person died [1] (16 Jan 2024)
  • Belal closed the Mauritius airport on 15 Jan 2024 and floods swept cars through Port Louis [2] (15 Jan 2024)
  • A Class 3 cyclone warning for Cyclone Garance closed the Mauritius international airport [3] (27 Feb 2025)
  • The 2025-26 season brought only a Class 1 warning for Mauritius (Cyclone Horacio), lifted on 23 Feb 2026 [4] (24 Feb 2026)
  • About a dozen storms form each year in the south-west Indian Ocean during the November-April season [1] (16 Jan 2024)

Where it sits

11. Mauritius raises a Class III cyclone warning in the 2026-27 season: Low impact · possible (placed at the country)1 Mauritius raises a ClassIII cyclone warningin the 2026-27 seasonLow impact · possibleCYCLONE WARNING SHUTS MAURITIUS0250 kmat 20°SMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
11. Mauritius raises a Class III cyclone warning in the 2026-27 season: Low impact · possible (placed at the country)1 Cyclone warningshuts MauritiusCYCLONE WARNING SHUTS MAURITIUS0200 kmat 20°SMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.

If

Between 4 Nov 2026 and 30 Apr 2027 the Mauritius Meteorological Services issues a Class III or Class IV cyclone warning for the island of Mauritius.

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. TourismAirport closures strand arrivals and departures, hitting the island's lead earner [2][3].
  3. TradePort and office closures stop work for the length of the warning [1].
  4. People and propertyFlash floods in Port Louis, as in January 2024 [2].

Countries 1

Who is exposed

No figure on file: Mauritius, Réunion.

Sectors
Tourism

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Quiet season

    Storms pass far off; at most a Class I or II warning.

  2. S2

    One shutdown

    A single Class III warning for a day or two, as with Garance.

  3. S3

    Severe hit

    A Class IV warning with floods in Port Louis, as with Belal.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1No Class III bulletin by the end of March 2027
S2An MMS Class III bulletin
S3A cyclone forecast to pass within 100 km of the island

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 30 Apr 2027 End of the November-April cyclone season [1] Tentative · Window

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · MAURITIUS · strature.net

The other side

The 2025-26 season passed with only a Class 1 warning [4], and warnings, even at the top level, have lasted hours to a day [1]. Mauritius is practised at short shutdowns.

Connected in Strature

Sources

5 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Mauritius mopping up after storm Belal wreaks havoc. Arab News (AFP) · 16 Jan 2024 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  2. Cyclone causes heavy flooding, 1 death in Mauritius after also battering French island of Reunion. AP (News4Jax) · 15 Jan 2024 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  3. Cyclone disrupts holidaymakers as Mauritius international airport closed. TimesLive · 27 Feb 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  4. Tropical Cyclone Horacio becomes strongest storm of 2026 east of Mauritius. watchers.news · 24 Feb 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  5. Tropical cyclone warning system. Mauritius Meteorological Services · undated · Official · confidence high · retrieved 4 Nov 2026

Reviewed 4 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks