Gulf war / Hormuz · Strature analysis, not from the brief
Gulf war / Hormuz: what is at stake for Madagascar
Madagascar buys 95.8% of its fuel products from the Gulf, but 78.5% from Oman, outside the Strait. The exposure is price: oil-fired plants make a third of its power.
Theme band Medium
78.5%
of product imports from Oman, outside the Strait (2025)
17.3%
from Hormuz Gulf producers (2025)
33.5%
of electricity made from oil (2023)
8.6%
inflation in Jun 2026
Read the full panel
Risks
- Power: oil made 33.5% of electricity in 2023, and power and water cuts at JIRAMA were among the grievances in the Sep 2025 protests that preceded the Oct 2025 change of government. Estimate from press or commentary
- Prices: inflation rose from 6.8% in March to 8.6% in Jun 2026; the central bank raised its rate to 12.5% in August.
- Concentration: Oman supplied 78.5% of fuel products in 2025.
- Fertiliser: Hormuz producers supplied 26.6% of urea in 2024, but only 2.93 kt worth US$1.74m. Farming is 21.7% of GDP, yet the volume is too small to raise the band above Medium.
Opportunities
- Oman loads outside the Strait, which shields most fuel volume from a closure.
- Oil's share of power fell from 45.7% in 2022 to 33.5% in 2023; more hydro and solar would cut the fuel bill.
- Rice is not a Hormuz channel: 87.1% of 2024 imports came from Pakistan.
Uncertainties
- Reserves for 2025-2026 were not found; the latest is US$2.78bn at end-2024.
- Whether war-risk premia raised the cost of Omani cargoes during the war.
- The status of the IMF programme after the Oct 2025 change of government. Estimate from press or commentary
What to watch
- 20 Nov 2026F-0074 resolves.
- MonthlyPump prices and supply from the distributors Jovena, Galana and Vivo Energy.
- Nov 2026-Mar 2027Rice planting and the cyclone season.
- Each BFM meetingCentral bank (BFM) policy rate, 12.5% since Aug 2026.
Exposure by lens
| Lens | Figure | Band | Published line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fertiliser (urea)Food and farming | 26.6% 2024Share of urea imports from Hormuz Gulf producers (excluding Oman) | Medium | High ≥50% · Medium 25–50% · Low 10–25% |
| Refined productsDependence | 17.3% 2025Share of refined product imports from Hormuz Gulf producers (excluding Oman) | Low | High ≥40% · Medium 20–40% · Low 10–20% |
| Exports to the GulfTrade | US$36.4m 2024Goods exports to GCC6 + Iran | Below line | High ≥25% · Medium 10–25% · Low 5–10% |
Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.
GulfElsewhere
Drawn to scale from zero. Source: UN Comtrade (public API): Madagascar imports HS 2710 by partner, 2025.
Briefs and questions
- T-003 · Had Hormuz crude flows recovered by late September 2026? Products recovered least after the Strait reopened to escorted traffic.
- T-003 · Which economies are most exposed to the Gulf fertiliser shock? Gulf nitrogen; Madagascar is not on the WTO list.
- S-001 F-0074 Renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran by 20 Nov 2026, 61%, our estimate, scored when it resolves.
Sources cited
- UN Comtrade (public API): Madagascar imports HS 2710 by partner, 2025 (2025; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- World Bank WDI EG.ELC.PETR.ZS (IEA data) (2023; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- World Bank, Madagascar overview (economy section, read 6 Oct 2026) (2026-06; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- WITS/UN Comtrade: Madagascar urea (HS 310210) imports by partner, 2024 (2024; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- UN Comtrade (public API): Madagascar exports, all goods, by partner, 2024 (2024; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- World Bank WDI NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS (2025; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- UN Comtrade (public API): Madagascar imports HS 1006 by partner, 2024 (2024; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- World Bank WDI FI.RES.TOTL.CD (2024; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- IMF country page, Madagascar (WEO data) (2026; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
Estimates from press or commentary
- 2025 Malagasy protests (Wikipedia) (2025; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
Our calculations
- Scenario: combined one-quarter FX hit (fuel + urea) as a share of reserves: 1.1% of reserves (= (31.4 + 0.19) US$m / US$2,785m = 1.13%; low (20.9 + 0)/2,785 = 0.75%; high (41.9 + 0.28)/2,785 = 1.51%. As % of 2025 GDP (US$19.62bn): 0.16% (0.11-0.21))
- Scenario: extra product import bill for one quarter, Brent +US$15/bbl: US$31.4m (= 1.117 Mt (2025 products) × 7.5 bbl/t = 8.38m bbl a year; /4 × US$15; range US$10-20)
- Scenario: Hormuz-only product volume to re-source in 3 months: 0.06 Mt (= 224.5 kt (2025 Hormuz-only products by weight: 20.1% of 1,117 kt) × 3/12 = 56 kt)
- Scenario: extra cost of replacing Hormuz Gulf urea for 3 months: US$0.19m (= 2.93 kt (2024 Hormuz-only urea) × 3/12 = 0.73 kt; x US$254/t premium (725.6 - 472); low × 0; high × 378)
Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 6 Oct 2026. General research, not advice. Who is exposed to the Gulf war / Hormuz