Gulf war / Hormuz · Strature analysis, not from the brief
Gulf war / Hormuz: what is at stake for New Zealand
New Zealand's direct stake is urea: Saudi Arabia supplied 58.9% of 2024 imports by value. All its fuel is imported refined, mainly from Korea and Singapore.
0.29
urea from Saudi Arabia (2024)
US$6.08bn
refined product import bill (2024)
61.8%
Gulf crude inside product imports (our calculation)
58.9%
of urea imports by value from Saudi Arabia (2024)
Read the full panel
Risks
- Pasture urea depends on one Gulf supplier: Saudi Arabia shipped 0.29 Mt in 2024.
- No refinery since 2022: South Korea and Singapore supply about 80% of fuel. Estimate from press or commentary
- Our calculation puts Gulf crude inside 61.8% of product imports.
Opportunities
- Gulf food importers may look for suppliers outside the region; New Zealand sold US$1.44bn of goods to GCC states in 2023.
- Urea from outside the Gulf is available: Malaysia supplied US$44.4m in 2024, the next-largest source.
Uncertainties
- Fuel stock days were not found; only the 6 days released in Mar 2026 are known. Estimate from press or commentary
- The embedded share assumes suppliers' 2024-2025 crude slates; Korea and Singapore may have cut Gulf crude after the war began.
What to watch
- 20 Nov 2026F-0074 resolves; spring top-dressing demand for urea is under way.
- MonthlyMBIE fuel stock updates and the fuel alert level.
- MonthlyUrea import prices against US$780 a tonne at the April peak.
Exposure by lens
| Lens | Figure | Band | Published line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fertiliser (urea)Food and farming | 58.9% 2024Share of urea imports (by value) from Hormuz Gulf producers (excluding Oman) | High | High ≥50% · Medium 25–50% · Low 10–25% |
Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.
GulfElsewhere
Drawn to scale from zero. Source: WITS/UN Comtrade: NZL urea (HS 310210) imports by partner 2024; WITS/UN Comtrade: NZL petroleum products (HS 271000) imports by partner 2024. * Our calculation from the cited figures.
Briefs and questions
- T-003 · Which economies are most exposed to the Gulf fertiliser shock? Gulf economies supply about a quarter of world nitrogen fertiliser exports.
- T-003 · Had Hormuz crude flows recovered by late September 2026? Refined products recovered least after the reopening.
- S-001 F-0074 Renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran by 20 Nov 2026, 61%, our estimate, scored when it resolves.
Sources cited
- WITS/UN Comtrade: NZL urea (HS 310210) imports by partner 2024 (2024; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- WITS/UN Comtrade: NZL petroleum products (HS 271000) imports by partner 2024 (2024; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- WITS country profile, exports by partner (2023; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- Argus: Middle East conflict disrupts global urea trade and pricing (market opinion blog, 2026) (Apr 2026; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
Estimates from press or commentary
- RNZ: Where does New Zealand's fuel come from and how does it get here? (2026; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
- RNZ: NZ will release six days of fuel amid global concerns over supply (12 Mar 2026; retrieved 6 Oct 2026)
Our calculations
- Gulf crude embedded in refined product imports (import share x supplier's Gulf crude share): 61.8% of product imports (= sum over suppliers of (share of product imports by value × supplier's Gulf share of crude imports): Korea 53.8% × 69.9%; Singapore 30.7% × 52.3%; Malaysia 5.8% × 48.7%; Japan 4.7% × 87.4%; China 3.0% × 39.7%)
- Scenario: extra cost of replacing one quarter of Saudi urea at the April 2026 peak premium: US$33m (= 0.29 Mt / 4 × (780 - 330) US$/t = 72,500 t × 450 = US$32.6m)
- Scenario: extra refined product import bill for one quarter if prices rise 15%: US$0.23bn per quarter (= 6.08 / 4 × 15% (10-20%))
- Scenario: one-quarter cost (fuel + urea) as % of GDP: 0.1% of GDP (= (0.23 + 0.033) / 264.06 = 0.26 / 264)
Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 6 Oct 2026. General research, not advice. Who is exposed to the Gulf war / Hormuz