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World risk · Finance and markets

Japan's 10-year bond yield closes above 3.5%

The test On any day between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, the 10-year Japanese government bond yield closes above 3.50%.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
4Elevated steady this month
Impact
5Elevated steady this month
Breadth4
Depth7
Duration5
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting 17-18 Dec 2026 [7]
  2. 10-year JGB yield 2.817% on 30 Oct 2026; October high 3.111% on 7 Oct; 30-year 3.908% on 30 Oct [1]
  3. BoJ held at around 1.25% on 30 Oct 2026, 8-1; Takata proposed 1.5% [4]
  4. Reuters poll 13-19 Oct: 54 of 78 expect 1.5% this quarter; 51% see a peak of 2.00% or higher [5]
  5. Brent futures about US$107/bbl [6]
  6. 10-year auction 6 Oct 2026: yield at lowest accepted price 3.103% [2]

Why it matters

Japan's 10-year yield was 2.817% on 30 Oct 2026, off an October high of 3.111% on 7 Oct. A 10-year auction cleared at 3.103% on 6 Oct, against 1.619% in September 2025. Most economists polled by Reuters expect a rate rise to 1.5% this quarter. A close above 3.5% needs a further rise of about 0.7 points.

Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: auction yield up about 1.5 points in 13 months; most polled economists expect a rate rise. Brakes: the yield fell back in late October; 0.68 points to go. Price-threshold event with no cited volatility range: at most 6; drivers in place, blockers holding, 4.

The other facts on file (1)
  • 10-year auction 2 Sep 2025: yield at lowest accepted price 1.619% [3] (2 Sep 2025)

Where it sits

JAPANNORTH KOREASOUTH KOREA11. Japan's 10-year bond yield closes above 3.5%: Elevated impact · possible (placed at the country)1 Japan's 10-year bondyield closes above 3.5%Elevated impact · possibleJAPAN 10-YEAR YIELD ABOVE 3.5%0500 kmat 38°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
JAPANNORTH KOREA11. Japan's 10-year bond yield closes above 3.5%: Elevated impact · possible (placed at the country)1 Japan 10-yearyield above 3.5%JAPAN 10-YEAR YIELD ABOVE 3.5%0500 kmat 38°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.

If

On any day between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, the 10-year Japanese government bond yield closes above 3.50%.

Not under way

Channels 3 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. Finance and marketsHigher yields raise the state's interest bill and cut the value of bond holdings at Japanese banks and insurers.
  3. Global bondsJapanese investors may bring money home, adding pressure on other bond markets.

Sectors 2

  • Banks and insurers
  • Government bonds

Countries 1

Who is exposed

No figure on file: Japan.

Sectors
Banks and insurers, Government bonds

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Grind higher

    Two rate rises and sticky inflation lift the yield past 3.5%.

  2. S2

    Range

    The yield stays between 2.5% and 3.3%.

  3. S3

    Spike

    A fiscal package or bond-market shock pushes yields up fast.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1a Bank of Japan rise in December 2026 and another by mid-2027
S2no rate rise in December 2026
S3a weak 10-year auction

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 18 Dec 2026 Bank of Japan policy decision [7] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · JAPAN · strature.net

The other side

The yield fell about 0.3 points between 7 and 30 Oct [1]; a slower path of rate rises would keep it well below 3.5%.

Connected in Strature

Sources

7 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Interest Rate (JGB benchmark yields, October 2026). Ministry of Finance, Japan · 30 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  2. Auction Results of 10-year JGBs (October 6, 2026). Ministry of Finance, Japan · 6 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  3. Auction Results of 10-year JGBs (September 2, 2025). Ministry of Finance, Japan · 2 Sep 2025 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  4. Statement on Monetary Policy. Bank of Japan · 30 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  5. BOJ to raise rates to 1.50% in December, sticking to quarterly pace: Reuters poll. GV Wire (Reuters) · 20 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  6. Oil Market Report, October 2026. International Energy Agency · 14 Oct 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  7. Monetary Policy Meetings: schedule. Bank of Japan · 2026-11 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026

Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks