Key question KQ-10 · Trade, tariffs and sanctions
One forecast: the estimate that it happens, and its complement. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.
China's tariff relief on Canadian peas, canola meal and seafood lapses at the end of 2026
30% · unlikely · confidence not registered
F-0169 · Open
It does not happen
70%
The situation when it was sealed (1 Oct 2026). China's tariff relief on Canadian peas, canola meal and seafood runs to the end of 2026.
Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.
| No. | Row | Sealed | Estimate | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | F-0169 | 1 Oct 2026 | 30% | Open |
No reassessment yet.
What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.
No signpost is published for this question yet.
Canada's sales outside the US rose by more than a quarter in a year; China is one of the markets that growth depends on.
The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.
F-0169
“Happened if, on 1 Jan 2027, no renewal has been announced and the pre-relief Chinese tariff applies again to Canadian peas, canola meal or seafood.”
Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.