KQ-03: By 31 December 2026, does an EU-Canada association track open, how many of the six drafted summit deals land, and does the EU's share of Canada's goods exports stay above its 2025 level?

Our standing estimate

Six outcomes that together make 100%. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.

A partial package, and the EU share holds above 2025

47% · roughly even chance · confidence not registered

No association track; one to five of the six deals are delivered, and the EU share is above 5.519%.

F-0213 · Open
A package (full or partial), but the EU share falls back

18.3% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

No association track; at least one deal is delivered, but the EU share is at or below 5.519%.

F-0214 · Open
The summit delivers none of it

12.9% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

No association track and no deal delivered, including if the summit is not held.

F-0215 · Open
An association track opens

12% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

An official text opens, or formally starts, negotiations on an association-type agreement, whatever happens to trade.

F-0211 · Open
The full package, and the EU share holds above 2025

8% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

No association track; all six drafted deals are delivered, and the EU share of exports for August-October 2026 is above 5.519%.

F-0212 · Open
All other outcomes

1.8% · almost no chance · confidence not registered

No association track, and Statistics Canada has not published October 2026 exports by 31 December 2026.

F-0216 · Open

The situation when it was sealed (4 Oct 2026). Canada and the EU meet at a summit on 29–30 October 2026; six deals are drafted for it, and none of them touches a tariff.

How it moved

Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.

The vertical line is 31 Oct 2026. Numbers match the outcomes above.

Every sealed estimate for this question: outcome number, register row, date sealed, estimate, status
No.	Row	Sealed	Estimate	Status
1	F-0213	4 Oct 2026	47%	Open
2	F-0214	4 Oct 2026	18.3%	Open
3	F-0215	4 Oct 2026	12.9%	Open
4	F-0211	4 Oct 2026	12%	Open
5	F-0212	4 Oct 2026	8%	Open
6	F-0216	4 Oct 2026	1.8%	Open

Reassessments

No reassessment yet.

Signposts

What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.

No signpost is published for this question yet.

Why it matters, by category

Geopolitics and conflict

What does the EU relationship add beyond CETA, and when should exporters commit?
Defence access, not market access: by 31 December 2026 summit deals land and the EU share holds, 55% (8% + 47%), our estimate, set by the firm, scored when it resolves. Read it in the brief
How far will the relationship go, and what could stop it?
The one that opens a legal track toward access beyond CETA, an association negotiation, stands at 12%: our estimate, set by the firm, scored when it resolves. Read it in the brief

Trade, tariffs and sanctions

The brief finds the relationship adds defence access, not market access; for a goods exporter, CETA's existing terms are the whole offer.

Countries it touches

The countries our register links to these forecasts, most often linked first.

How it resolves

The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.

F-0211
“Resolves if: By 31 Dec 2026 an official text states that the EU and Canada will open, or have opened, negotiations on an association-type agreement (association, economic area, associate status, or access beyond CETA in services, financial services, procurement or labour mobility), or the Commission or Council formally starts such negotiations; whatever happens to the EU share of exports.”
F-0212
“Resolves if: By 31 Dec 2026 no association track has opened, all six drafted summit deliverables are delivered by their tests, and the August-October 2026 EU share of Canadian goods exports is above 5.519%.”
F-0213
“Resolves if: By 31 Dec 2026 no association track has opened, between one and five of the six drafted summit deliverables are delivered by their tests, and the August-October 2026 EU share of Canadian goods exports is above 5.519%.”
F-0214
“Resolves if: By 31 Dec 2026 no association track has opened, at least one of the six drafted summit deliverables is delivered by its test, and the August-October 2026 EU share of Canadian goods exports is at or below 5.519%.”
F-0215
“Resolves if: By 31 Dec 2026 no association track has opened and none of the six drafted summit deliverables is delivered by its test (including the case where the summit is not held), and the August-October 2026 EU share of Canadian goods exports is published by then.”
F-0216
“Resolves if: All other outcomes: no association track has opened by 31 Dec 2026 and Statistics Canada has not published October 2026 exports by then, whatever the summit delivered.”

The seals: each statement’s SHA-256 fingerprint

F-0211 sealed 4 Oct 2026SHA-256 c01eb74907256d09836e877438d54338f254a640ff304ce5db2376faeb99cf39
F-0212 sealed 4 Oct 2026SHA-256 0cdb60d29e0757491c9e5b84222331208061e9974494fc442c48ca67b6ddffc7
F-0213 sealed 4 Oct 2026SHA-256 18ae6fb44362f2a31b767b437b74dac2ed85b0da823df6de2e0d8e8cd0bdad67
F-0214 sealed 4 Oct 2026SHA-256 5f4175ee01251a62df91492e104fe953d1e172ecf3a2058dd01be7b56a667a75
F-0215 sealed 4 Oct 2026SHA-256 6196cae5d4ce2adef13038f85755564bd829abec15085e51625e9f6f56e3bf32
F-0216 sealed 4 Oct 2026SHA-256 7614e99c48a59474ef457431d200bd1cd3803c5153eed4ab8069c5ed8647c5aa

Go further

Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.