Key question KQ-15 · Trade, tariffs and sanctions
One forecast: the estimate that it happens, and its complement. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.
The Section 338 tariffs are struck down or narrowed in a US court
12% · very unlikely · confidence not registered
F-0175 · Open
It does not happen
88%
The situation when it was sealed (1 Oct 2026). No suit against the Section 338 duty had been found when the duty brief was researched.
Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.
| No. | Row | Sealed | Estimate | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | F-0175 | 1 Oct 2026 | 12% | Open |
No reassessment yet.
What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.
No signpost is published for this question yet.
A court is one way out of the duty without a deal; if a court strikes it, the refund goes to whoever entered the goods.
The countries our register links to these forecasts, most often linked first.
The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.
F-0175
“Happened if, by 30 Sep 2027, a US court rules that the Section 338 tariffs on Canadian goods exceed the statute, in whole or in part, and the ruling is not stayed.”
Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.