Key question KQ-19 · Trade, tariffs and sanctions
One forecast: the estimate that it happens, and its complement. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.
Canada falls into recession
25% · unlikely · confidence not registered
F-0174 · Open
It does not happen
75%
The situation when it was sealed (1 Oct 2026). Canada's population is growing at its slowest since the series began in 1946, while a 50% US duty reaches named Canadian goods.
Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.
| No. | Row | Sealed | Estimate | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | F-0174 | 1 Oct 2026 | 25% | Open |
No reassessment yet.
What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.
No signpost is published for this question yet.
Two consecutive quarters of falling real GDP is the recession test this forecast uses, settled by Statistics Canada's first release.
The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.
F-0174
“Happened if real GDP falls in two consecutive quarters at any point up to 2027Q4 (Statistics Canada, first release).”
Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.