Key question KQ-34 · Finance and markets
One forecast: the estimate that it happens, and its complement. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.
Hidden local debt by 2029: Beijing declares it fully cleared
40% · unlikely · confidence not registered
F-0235 · Open
It does not happen
60%
The situation when it was sealed (10 Oct 2026). Local financing vehicles are being shut down to a 2028 deadline, with about RMB5tn of their bonds due by end-2027.
Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.
| No. | Row | Sealed | Estimate | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | F-0235 | 10 Oct 2026 | 40% | Open |
No reassessment yet.
What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.
No signpost is published for this question yet.
It tests whether Beijing declares its debt clean-up finished; wording that the task has been 'basically' completed does not count.
The countries our register links to these forecasts, most often linked first.
The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.
F-0235
“Happened if, by 31 Mar 2029, the State Council's 2029 Government Work Report or the Ministry of Finance's budget report to the NPC states that the existing stock of hidden local-government debt has been fully resolved or cleared (cleared to zero, qingling); wording that the task has been 'basically' completed does NOT count.”
Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.