Key question KQ-18 · Geopolitics and conflict
One forecast: the estimate that it happens, and its complement. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.
US military action against Canada - the 'extreme tail risk' the Prime Minister says Canada has prepared for
2% · almost no chance · confidence not registered
F-0178 · Open
It does not happen
98%
The situation when it was sealed (1 Oct 2026). Washington's position on record calls the Northwest Passage an international strait.
Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.
| No. | Row | Sealed | Estimate | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | F-0178 | 1 Oct 2026 | 2% | Open |
No reassessment yet.
What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.
No signpost is published for this question yet.
The Prime Minister calls it an extreme tail risk that Canada has prepared for; the brief puts a number on it.
The countries our register links to these forecasts, most often linked first.
The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.
F-0178
“Happened if, by 30 Sep 2027, US armed forces take a military action on Canadian territory or in waters Canada claims without Canada's consent.”
Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.