On 30 September 2027, will US tariffs on Canadian goods still be above their 2024 level, with neither government having restored the pre-2025 terms?
From C-006Sealed 1 Oct 2026Resolves by 30 Sep 2027Open
Our standing estimate
One forecast: the estimate that it happens, and its complement. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.
1
A lasting break: the old lockstep does not return - US tariffs on Canadian goods above their 2024 level on 30 Sep 2027, re-scored after 20 Jan 2029
92% · very likely · confidence not registered
Label corrected by a note appended to the register; the sealed statement and its estimate are unchanged. Registered label: A lasting break: a later US president tries to repair relations but the old lockstep does not return. Correction note: A lasting break: the old lockstep does not return - US tariffs on Canadian goods above their 2024 level on 30 Sep 2027, re-scored after 20 Jan 2029.
F-0173 · Open
It does not happen
8%
The situation when it was sealed (1 Oct 2026). Canada is hedging between a volatile Washington and an open door to Europe, without choosing.
How it moved
Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.
The vertical line is 31 Oct 2026. Numbers match the outcomes above.
Every sealed estimate for this question: outcome number, register row, date sealed, estimate, status
No.
Row
Sealed
Estimate
Status
1
F-0173
1 Oct 2026
92%
Open
Reassessments
No reassessment yet.
Signposts
What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.
No signpost is published for this question yet.
Why it matters, by category
Trade, tariffs and sanctions
It tests whether the break with the old lockstep lasts; the row is scored again after 20 January 2029.
Countries it touches
The countries our register links to these forecasts, most often linked first.
The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.
F-0173
“Happened if, on 30 Sep 2027, US tariffs on Canadian goods remain above their 2024 level and neither government has restored the pre-2025 terms - scored again after 20 Jan 2029, the voice's own clock.”
The seals: each statement’s SHA-256 fingerprint
F-0173 sealed 1 Oct 2026SHA-256 dbd868d041348c2f00ac092ba0a4007f40a9067ac02d8882980bfbadbbac2976
Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.