Key question KQ-35 · Trade, tariffs and sanctions
One forecast: the estimate that it happens, and its complement. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.
Household share by 2031: two years above 2015-2024 range
35% · unlikely · confidence not registered
F-0236 · Open
It does not happen
65%
The situation when it was sealed (10 Oct 2026). The brief's call is that household demand does not turn through mid-2027.
Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.
| No. | Row | Sealed | Estimate | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | F-0236 | 10 Oct 2026 | 35% | Open |
No reassessment yet.
What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.
No signpost is published for this question yet.
It is the brief's long test of a turn to households: two years above the 2015-2024 range.
The countries our register links to these forecasts, most often linked first.
The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.
F-0236
“Happened if, in the World Bank WDI series NE.CON.PRVT.ZS (household and NPISH final consumption expenditure, % of GDP) for China as read on 30 Sep 2033, any two consecutive annual values from 2026 to 2031 are both above 40.0%.”
Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.