Key question KQ-33 · Trade, tariffs and sanctions
One forecast: the estimate that it happens, and its complement. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.
US tariffs, 2027 to Sep 2029: US raises tariff generally
40% · unlikely · confidence not registered
F-0234 · Open
It does not happen
60%
The situation when it was sealed (10 Oct 2026). The truce runs to 10 January 2027; the brief also prices a general US tariff rise after it, to September 2029.
Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.
| No. | Row | Sealed | Estimate | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | F-0234 | 10 Oct 2026 | 40% | Open |
No reassessment yet.
What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.
No signpost is published for this question yet.
The brief names it the likeliest of its severe risks, at 40%.
The countries our register links to these forecasts, most often linked first.
The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.
F-0234
“Happened if, between 11 Jan 2027 and 30 Sep 2029, a US proclamation or Federal Register notice takes effect that raises the additional tariff on all or substantially all Chinese-origin goods above the rate in force on 10 Jan 2027.”
Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.