Today C$0.14bn is checkable; TD states an amount against its C$150bn pledge by mid-2027 at 17%, our estimate, set by the firm, scored when it resolves.
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On 15 September 2026 the Prime Minister's Office listed fourteen summit lines worth C$480.84bn, including C$322bn pledged by four banks. Budget 2026 plans four airport concessions; none has a bill.
17% is the chance that TD states, in a document it publishes by 30 June 2027, an amount against its C$150bn summit commitment. That it states none is 76%; a record that does not settle it, 7%. The brief also prices six scenarios for how much of the summit total becomes checkable by then. Each is our estimate, scored when it resolves.
Which summit pledges can be checked, and what governs the airports?
The forecast register’s own words, quoted as registered; a registered forecast is never edited.
F-0426 · TD states an amount · 17% · resolves by 30 Jun 2027
“Resolves if: TD Bank Group states, in a document it publishes dated 15 Sep 2026 to 30 Jun 2027, an amount lent, underwritten, advised, deployed or committed against its C$150bn summit commitment (an amount TD itself ties to the C$150bn; the 22 Sep Cohere release, which says only that it builds on the commitment, does not count).”
Each answer is quoted verbatim from the brief, with the section that answers it and the countries it touches. Answers with a register ID are our estimates, scored when they resolve; the others are the brief’s reading of the evidence, not forecasts.
“Today C$0.14bn is checkable; TD states an amount against its C$150bn pledge by mid-2027 at 17%, our estimate, set by the firm, scored when it resolves.”
On the register: F-0426 17%, open. The forecast register
Primary Canada
“Today C$0.14bn is checkable; at most C$88.34bn by June 2027, a ceiling unless a pledger reports. In the releases read to early November, no bank reported against its C$322bn, and the airports have no bill.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“Only C$0.14bn of the summit pledges can be checked against a dated document today; the ceiling is C$88.34bn within a year.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“For a pension-fund allocator, 30 November is the one date in the plan window when a documented line could move.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“Budget 2026 gave the four airport concessions a term and a target date, but no rule for what an operator may charge.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“Budget 2026 targets a first operator by early 2029 (Exhibit 23). The firm puts a bill tabled by 31 March 2027 at 26%, and by 30 June at 44%”
our estimate, scored when it resolvesOn the register: F-0438 26%, open · F-0441 44%, open. The forecast register
Primary Canada
“That C$0.14bn of the C$480.84bn itemised is the Canada Growth Fund's stake in Generation Mining, about C$89m of it closed.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“In the releases read to early November 2026, no bank states an amount against the C$322bn the four banks pledged in September.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“The seven investor lines, C$105.5bn of the Prime Minister's list, carry no amount reported against a summit figure.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“The Productivity Mega Deduction is a tax cost, not a pledge, and it is not among the C$480.84bn of itemised lines.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“PSP Investments holds the one dated document among the five lines that name one: its annual public meeting on 30 November 2026.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“Eight weeks moved one summit line to evidence: the Canada Growth Fund's C$0.14bn stake in Generation Mining.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“Budget 2026 writes a term of 40 to 50 years, keeps the land and assets with the Crown and sets aside equity for the Canada Strong Fund and local Indigenous communities.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“Most documents that would move this answer carry no published date; the first that does is PSP's meeting on 30 November.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
Registered forecasts are never changed: they stay as issued and are scored as registered. Facts found after the research date are listed here with their date and source.
Each estimate is our estimate, scored when it resolves.
| No. | Forecast | Our estimate | Issued | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F-0420 | Crown money only, no bill (to 30 June 2027) | 19.5% | Issued 10 Nov 2026 | Resolves 30 Jun 2027 | Open |
| F-0421 | Crown money only, bill moves (to 30 June 2027) | 17.3% | Issued 10 Nov 2026 | Resolves 30 Jun 2027 | Open |
| F-0422 | Documented lines report, no bill (to 30 June 2027) | 20.6% | Issued 10 Nov 2026 | Resolves 30 Jun 2027 | Open |
| F-0423 | Documented lines report, bill moves (to 30 June 2027) | 18.2% | Issued 10 Nov 2026 | Resolves 30 Jun 2027 | Open |
| F-0424 | A bank or large line reports (to 30 June 2027) | 21.4% | Issued 10 Nov 2026 | Resolves 30 Jun 2027 | Open |
| F-0425 | All other outcomes (to 30 June 2027) | 3% | Issued 10 Nov 2026 | Resolves 30 Jun 2027 | Open |
| F-0426 | TD states an amount | 17% | Issued 10 Nov 2026 | Resolves 30 Jun 2027 | Open |
| F-0427 | No: TD states an amount | 76% | Issued 10 Nov 2026 | Resolves 30 Jun 2027 | Open |
| F-0428 | Not settled: TD states an amount | 7% | Issued 10 Nov 2026 | Resolves 30 Jun 2027 | Open |
| F-0429 | A bank reports against its figure | 30% | Issued 10 Nov 2026 | Resolves 30 Jun 2027 | Open |
| F-0430 | No: A bank reports against its figure | 63% | Issued 10 Nov 2026 | Resolves 30 Jun 2027 | Open |
| F-0431 | Not settled: A bank reports against its figure | 7% | Issued 10 Nov 2026 | Resolves 30 Jun 2027 | Open |
| F-0432 | Maple Fund names a first deal | 33% | Issued 10 Nov 2026 | Resolves 30 Jun 2027 | Open |
| F-0433 | No: Maple Fund names a first deal | 62% | Issued 10 Nov 2026 | Resolves 30 Jun 2027 | Open |
| F-0434 | Not settled: Maple Fund names a first deal | 5% | Issued 10 Nov 2026 | Resolves 30 Jun 2027 | Open |
| F-0435 | Bell's hub becomes binding | 20% | Issued 10 Nov 2026 | Resolves 30 Jun 2027 | Open |
| F-0436 | No: Bell's hub becomes binding | 74% | Issued 10 Nov 2026 | Resolves 30 Jun 2027 | Open |
| F-0437 | Not settled: Bell's hub becomes binding | 6% | Issued 10 Nov 2026 | Resolves 30 Jun 2027 | Open |
| F-0438 | Airport bill tabled by March | 26% | Issued 10 Nov 2026 | Resolves 31 Mar 2027 | Open |
| F-0439 | No: Airport bill tabled by March | 72% | Issued 10 Nov 2026 | Resolves 31 Mar 2027 | Open |
| F-0440 | Not settled: Airport bill tabled by March | 2% | Issued 10 Nov 2026 | Resolves 31 Mar 2027 | Open |
| F-0441 | Airport bill tabled by June | 44% | Issued 10 Nov 2026 | Resolves 30 Jun 2027 | Open |
| F-0442 | No: Airport bill tabled by June | 54% | Issued 10 Nov 2026 | Resolves 30 Jun 2027 | Open |
| F-0443 | Not settled: Airport bill tabled by June | 2% | Issued 10 Nov 2026 | Resolves 30 Jun 2027 | Open |
| F-0444 | Charge rule or request published | 10% | Issued 10 Nov 2026 | Resolves 30 Jun 2027 | Open |
| F-0445 | No: Charge rule or request published | 85% | Issued 10 Nov 2026 | Resolves 30 Jun 2027 | Open |
| F-0446 | Not settled: Charge rule or request published | 5% | Issued 10 Nov 2026 | Resolves 30 Jun 2027 | Open |
| F-0447 | Insurance law amendment tabled | 50% | Issued 10 Nov 2026 | Resolves 30 Jun 2027 | Open |
| F-0448 | No: Insurance law amendment tabled | 46% | Issued 10 Nov 2026 | Resolves 30 Jun 2027 | Open |
| F-0449 | Not settled: Insurance law amendment tabled | 4% | Issued 10 Nov 2026 | Resolves 30 Jun 2027 | Open |
No fact has been added since the research date.
No new forecast is issued with these facts; a new view would be a new, separately dated forecast.
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