More likely at or below plan. A 2026-27 deficit above plan by 31 December 2027, two scenarios together: 25%, our estimate, set by the firm, scored when it resolves.
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Evidence to 5 November 2026.
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Written for this page by Strature from the brief’s free layers and the forecast register; the answer above is quoted as printed.
Budget 2026 plans a $62.3 billion deficit for 2026-27, 1.8% of GDP, as in 2027-28; through August the deficit ran at about half its 2025 pace, as reported.
25% is two of six scenarios to 31 December 2027 together: the 2026-27 deficit comes in above the $62.3 billion plan and the anchor still holds (15%), or it comes in above the plan and the anchor breaks (10%). To 4 November 2027 the same two are 20%. The likeliest scenario is at or under plan with the anchor holding, at 53%. Each is our estimate, scored when it resolves.
What do the budget's numbers say about Ottawa's 2026-27 deficit and its anchor to the end of 2027?
The forecast register’s own words, quoted as registered; a registered forecast is never edited.
F-0299 · Over plan, anchor still holds (to 31 December 2027) · 14.8% · resolves by 31 Dec 2027
“Resolves if: On the 2026-27 deficit that counts on 31 Dec 2027: as first reported in the Annual Financial Report / Public Accounts of Canada 2026-27 if tabled by then; else the latest 2026-27 figure in an official Department of Finance fiscal plan published after Budget 2026 and by then (Budget 2027, a fall statement or an economic update); else the March 2027 Fiscal Monitor's full-year figure before year-end adjustments, it is above $62.3 billion; AND on Finance's PRINTED one-decimal deficit-to-GDP ratios, taking the latest published figure for each fiscal year from 2026-27 to the final year of the latest official plan published by 31 Dec 2027 (Budget 2026 itself if none newer), the ratio never rises from one year to the next (flat counts as not rising) and the final year is below 2026-27; AND no official Finance document between 5 Nov 2026 and 31 Dec 2027 has replaced, dropped or redefined the declining deficit-to-GDP anchor.”
F-0300 · Over plan, anchor breaks (to 31 December 2027) · 9.9% · resolves by 31 Dec 2027
“Resolves if: On the 2026-27 deficit that counts on 31 Dec 2027: as first reported in the Annual Financial Report / Public Accounts of Canada 2026-27 if tabled by then; else the latest 2026-27 figure in an official Department of Finance fiscal plan published after Budget 2026 and by then (Budget 2027, a fall statement or an economic update); else the March 2027 Fiscal Monitor's full-year figure before year-end adjustments, it is above $62.3 billion; AND on Finance's PRINTED one-decimal deficit-to-GDP ratios, taking the latest published figure for each fiscal year from 2026-27 to the final year of the latest official plan published by 31 Dec 2027 (Budget 2026 itself if none newer), the ratio rises in at least one step from one year to the next, or the final year is not below 2026-27; AND no official Finance document between 5 Nov 2026 and 31 Dec 2027 has replaced, dropped or redefined the declining deficit-to-GDP anchor.”
Each answer is quoted verbatim from the brief, with the section that answers it and the countries it touches. Answers with a register ID are our estimates, scored when they resolve; the others are the brief’s reading of the evidence, not forecasts.
“More likely at or below plan. A 2026-27 deficit above plan by 31 December 2027, two scenarios together: 25%, our estimate, set by the firm, scored when it resolves.”
On the register: F-0299 15%, open · F-0300 10%, open. The forecast register
Primary Canada
“The 2026-27 deficit more likely lands at or below the $62.3 billion plan. By our calculation, about $3.2 billion more in 2027-28 prints 1.9% and breaks the anchor; a 2026-27 outturn below about $60.0 billion prints 1.7%.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“Less likely than not: a deficit above the plan is 20% by 4 Nov 2027 and 25% by 31 Dec 2027, our estimate, set by the firm, scored when it resolves.”
On the register: F-0293 12%, open · F-0294 8%, open · F-0299 15%, open · F-0300 10%, open. The forecast register
Primary Canada
“More likely than not: the anchor holding is 70% by 4 Nov 2027 and 68% by 31 Dec 2027, our estimate, set by the firm, scored when it resolves.”
On the register: F-0292 58%, open · F-0293 12%, open · F-0298 53%, open · F-0299 15%, open. The forecast register
Primary Canada
“Budget 2026's debt plan sells $298 billion of bonds in 2026-27 and $316 billion in 2027-28, counting the bonds that replace maturing ones.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“Finance's own test, a sustained rise of one percentage point in all interest rates, adds $7.2 billion to federal expenses and $3.1 billion to revenue in the first year.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“For a provincial treasury, this means the federal anchor is not the figure its own credit is read on.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“The firm puts a deficit above the plan at 20% by 4 November 2027 and 25% by 31 December 2027.”
our estimate, scored when it resolvesOn the register: F-0293 12%, open · F-0294 8%, open · F-0299 15%, open · F-0300 10%, open. The forecast register
Primary Canada
“From April to August 2026 the federal deficit ran at about half its pace over the same months of 2025.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“In 2023-24 the final deficit came in $21.8 billion worse than Budget 2024 projected; in 2024-25 it came in $12.0 billion better than the December 2024 statement”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“Budget 2025 put 2026-27 at $65.4 billion, the spring update at $65.3 billion and Budget 2026 at $62.3 billion”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“The budget's path passes the anchor today: two years in a row print 1.8%.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“Parliament's budget watchdog projected larger deficits than the plan in every year, and on its path the printed ratio rises.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“Most of the year's nominal growth came from prices, not volume. For a Government of Canada bond holder, this means the cushion under the ratio can fade as fast as inflation cools.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“Non-residents bought a net $92.8 billion of federal bonds from January to August, 5.1 times the same months of 2025.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“From April to July, Ottawa needed $54.7 billion in cash while its deficit was $5.1 billion.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“Public debt charges rise from $60.2 billion in 2026-27 to $85.5 billion in 2030-31, faster than revenue.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“Counting the provinces, Fitch forecast Canada's general government deficit at 2.4% of GDP for 2026, beside a federal deficit of 1.8% for 2026-27.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
Registered forecasts are never changed: they stay as issued and are scored as registered. Facts found after the research date are listed here with their date and source.
Each estimate is our estimate, scored when it resolves.
| No. | Forecast | Our estimate | Issued | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F-0292 | At or under plan, anchor holds (to 4 November 2027) | 57.8% | Issued 8 Nov 2026 | Resolves 4 Nov 2027 | Open |
| F-0293 | Over plan, anchor still holds (to 4 November 2027) | 12.3% | Issued 8 Nov 2026 | Resolves 4 Nov 2027 | Open |
| F-0294 | Over plan, anchor breaks (to 4 November 2027) | 7.5% | Issued 8 Nov 2026 | Resolves 4 Nov 2027 | Open |
| F-0295 | At or under plan, anchor breaks (to 4 November 2027) | 14.4% | Issued 8 Nov 2026 | Resolves 4 Nov 2027 | Open |
| F-0296 | Anchor replaced or redefined (to 4 November 2027) | 5% | Issued 8 Nov 2026 | Resolves 4 Nov 2027 | Open |
| F-0297 | All other outcomes (to 4 November 2027) | 3% | Issued 8 Nov 2026 | Resolves 4 Nov 2027 | Open |
| F-0298 | At or under plan, anchor holds (to 31 December 2027) | 52.8% | Issued 8 Nov 2026 | Resolves 31 Dec 2027 | Open |
| F-0299 | Over plan, anchor still holds (to 31 December 2027) | 14.8% | Issued 8 Nov 2026 | Resolves 31 Dec 2027 | Open |
| F-0300 | Over plan, anchor breaks (to 31 December 2027) | 9.9% | Issued 8 Nov 2026 | Resolves 31 Dec 2027 | Open |
| F-0301 | At or under plan, anchor breaks (to 31 December 2027) | 14% | Issued 8 Nov 2026 | Resolves 31 Dec 2027 | Open |
| F-0302 | Anchor replaced or redefined (to 31 December 2027) | 6% | Issued 8 Nov 2026 | Resolves 31 Dec 2027 | Open |
| F-0303 | All other outcomes (to 31 December 2027) | 2.5% | Issued 8 Nov 2026 | Resolves 31 Dec 2027 | Open |
No fact has been added since the research date.
No new forecast is issued with these facts; a new view would be a new, separately dated forecast.
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