A 2027 rise in business investment, its two scenarios together, is 42% by 31 March 2028, a flat year 31%, our estimate, set by the firm, scored when it resolves.
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Written for this page by Strature from the brief’s free layers and the forecast register; the answer above is quoted as printed.
The deduction in Budget 2026, of 5 November 2026, would cut the government's measured tax on new investment to 6.4%, but it is not yet law.
42% is the sum of two of five scenarios to 31 March 2028, both a rise: calendar 2027 more than 1% above 2026, on the first release carrying 2027's fourth quarter. It splits into 7% with machinery and equipment reaching the 3.46% test and 35% short of it. A flat year is 31%, a fall 25%, all other outcomes 2%; a separate early read resolves on 4 November 2027. Each is our estimate, scored when it resolves.
Will Canadian business investment rise in 2027?
The forecast register’s own words, quoted as registered; a registered forecast is never edited.
F-0358 · Rise, equipment reaches the test level (to 31 March 2028) · 6.7% · resolves by 31 Mar 2028
“Resolves if: The calendar-2027 annual average of v62305735, read in the first release carrying 2027Q4 (expected about 28 Feb 2028 by the 2026 pattern; the latest vintage on 31 Mar 2028 if none is out), is more than 1.0% above the 2026 average in the same vintage (RISE), AND machinery and equipment (v62305768) is at or above 3.46% of nominal GDP (v62305783) in each of four consecutive quarters between 2026Q3 and 2027Q4 in that vintage.”
F-0359 · Rise, equipment short of the test level (to 31 March 2028) · 35.3% · resolves by 31 Mar 2028
“Resolves if: The calendar-2027 annual average of v62305735, read in the first release carrying 2027Q4 (expected about 28 Feb 2028 by the 2026 pattern; the latest vintage on 31 Mar 2028 if none is out), is more than 1.0% above the 2026 average in the same vintage (RISE), AND machinery and equipment does NOT reach 3.46% of nominal GDP in four consecutive quarters between 2026Q3 and 2027Q4.”
Each answer is quoted verbatim from the brief, with the section that answers it and the countries it touches. Answers with a register ID are our estimates, scored when they resolve; the others are the brief’s reading of the evidence, not forecasts.
“A 2027 rise in business investment, its two scenarios together, is 42% by 31 March 2028, a flat year 31%, our estimate, set by the firm, scored when it resolves.”
On the register: F-0358 7%, open · F-0359 35%, open · F-0360 31%, open. The forecast register
Primary Canada
“A 2027 rise of more than 1% in business investment is the likeliest of three outcomes, but less likely than not.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“The central bank projects business investment growing about 4% a year on average in 2027 and 2028, on a response it does not vouch for.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“For a Canadian CFO in a trade-exposed sector, this means the tariff state may decide whether new capacity pays in Canada; we have not assessed any firm's tax position.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States
“For a Canadian CFO, this means financing capital brought forward costs more while the deduction would cut its tax cost.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“No evidence of private-capital allocations to Canada after Budget Day was found in the sources read to 5 November 2026.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“On the first release carrying 2027's fourth quarter, expected about 28 February 2028, the firm puts a rise at 42% and a flat year at 31%.”
our estimate, scored when it resolvesOn the register: F-0358 7%, open · F-0359 35%, open · F-0360 31%, open. The forecast register
Primary Canada
“The deduction would cut the government's measured tax on new business investment to 6.4%.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“As proposed, the deduction has no end date.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“In chained 2017 dollars, the yearly change was -1.4% in 2024 and 0.2% in 2025, and the first half of 2026 averaged 0.1% above 2025”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“Firms' investment intentions remain above their long-run average, but trade worries deepened after talks with the US broke down in August.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States
“For a Canadian CFO, this means the official path is a projection to test.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“In the second quarter of 2026, machinery and equipment came to 3.28% of nominal GDP, about 0.18 points below 3.46%”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“US tariffs on Canadian goods average 7.5%, up from 0.1% before 2025, and firms report that the August break in talks deepened the drag on plans.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States
“The Bank of Canada raised its policy rate to 2.5% on 28 October 2026 and said a further increase is possible.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
“The Canada Growth Incentive would exempt up to C$15m of gains per individual, per business, on new shares of Canadian-controlled private firms held 36 months.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada
Registered forecasts are never changed: they stay as issued and are scored as registered. Facts found after the research date are listed here with their date and source.
Each estimate is our estimate, scored when it resolves.
| No. | Forecast | Our estimate | Issued | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F-0352 | Early rise, deduction in law (to 4 November 2027) | 28% | Issued 7 Nov 2026 | Resolves 4 Nov 2027 | Open |
| F-0353 | Early rise, deduction not yet law (to 4 November 2027) | 12% | Issued 7 Nov 2026 | Resolves 4 Nov 2027 | Open |
| F-0354 | Early flat, deduction in law (to 4 November 2027) | 22.4% | Issued 7 Nov 2026 | Resolves 4 Nov 2027 | Open |
| F-0355 | Early flat, deduction not yet law (to 4 November 2027) | 11.6% | Issued 7 Nov 2026 | Resolves 4 Nov 2027 | Open |
| F-0356 | Early fall (to 4 November 2027) | 25% | Issued 7 Nov 2026 | Resolves 4 Nov 2027 | Open |
| F-0357 | All other outcomes (to 4 November 2027) | 1% | Issued 7 Nov 2026 | Resolves 4 Nov 2027 | Open |
| F-0358 | Rise, equipment reaches the test level (to 31 March 2028) | 6.7% | Issued 7 Nov 2026 | Resolves 31 Mar 2028 | Open |
| F-0359 | Rise, equipment short of the test level (to 31 March 2028) | 35.3% | Issued 7 Nov 2026 | Resolves 31 Mar 2028 | Open |
| F-0360 | Flat year (to 31 March 2028) | 31% | Issued 7 Nov 2026 | Resolves 31 Mar 2028 | Open |
| F-0361 | Fall (to 31 March 2028) | 25% | Issued 7 Nov 2026 | Resolves 31 Mar 2028 | Open |
| F-0362 | All other outcomes (to 31 March 2028) | 2% | Issued 7 Nov 2026 | Resolves 31 Mar 2028 | Open |
No fact has been added since the research date.
No new forecast is issued with these facts; a new view would be a new, separately dated forecast.
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