No. The more concentrated side is supply: China supplied 40.9 per cent of Vietnam's 2025 imports, against a 32.2 per cent US share of exports, for as long as assembly runs on imported components.
Archive edition. Researched 1 September 2026; harmonised to the current house standard 30 September 2026. Evidence to 30 September 2026; facts refreshed 30 September 2026.
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
| Exporters and traders | Direct investors and operators | Lenders, bondholders and insurers | Long-horizon allocators | Governments | People and labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market access at the outbound end | High | High | Medium | Medium | Medium | Not assessed |
| Component supply at the inbound end | High | High | High | Medium | Low | Not assessed |
| Value retained at home | Medium | Medium | Low | Medium | Low | Not assessed |
| Capital inflows | Low | Medium | Medium | High | Low | Not assessed |
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“No. The more concentrated side is supply: China supplied 40.9 per cent of Vietnam's 2025 imports, against a 32.2 per cent US share of exports, for as long as assembly runs on imported components.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“The United States took 32.2% of what Vietnam sold and supplied 4.2% of what it bought. China supplied 40.9% of what it bought and took 14.8% of what it sold.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“In 2023, HS chapter 85 (electrical machinery and equipment) was the largest chapter on both sides of the account, and no other chapter behaved that way.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Vietnam
“Counterparty concentration, measured as a Herfindahl index over countries, was higher on imports than on exports in 2023, and highest of all inside chapter 85's imports.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“Trade in goods and services was 190.3% of Vietnam's GDP in 2025, against 68.5% for the world aggregate, and exports of goods and services alone were 98.2% of GDP (World Bank, re-checked 30 Sep 2026).”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Vietnam
“Four domains pass: two are core (market access at the outbound end, component supply at the inbound end) and two pass (value retained at home, capital inflows).”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Vietnam
“A change in the buyer market's trade rules acts on revenue. The United States took US$153.2bn of Vietnam's 2025 goods exports (NSO, preliminary).”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Vietnam Affected United States
“An interruption in supply acts on the ability to produce, not only on revenue: where the outbound leg consists of assembling the inbound one, a supply shock stops output rather than scaling it.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“On the OECD's modelled estimate, 51.5% of the value in Vietnam's gross exports was produced in Vietnam in 2022, the smallest share of the six economies compared.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Vietnam
“Net foreign direct investment inflows were US$20.2bn in 2024, the largest of the fourteen years drawn, through a pandemic, a tariff dispute and a global rate cycle (World Bank, re-checked 30 Sep 2026; no 2025 value yet).”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Vietnam
“China supplied 40.9% of Vietnam's imports in the NSO's 2025 tables and 41.0% in January to August 2026.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.“The NSO's report of 3 September 2026 records a goods deficit of US$20.46bn for January to August 2026, against a surplus of US$14.02bn a year earlier; imports rose 35.3% and exports 22.4%.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Vietnam
“For 2025, Vietnam reports US$153.2bn of exports to the United States; the US Census Bureau reports US$193.9bn of imports from Vietnam.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Vietnam Affected United States
“The call would be wrong if, in Vietnam's own partner tables, the import side became the less concentrated side of the account, or if China's share of imports fell below the United States' share of exports.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Registered forecasts are never changed: they stay as issued and are scored as registered. Facts found after the research date are listed here with their date and source.
No forecast is registered with this edition.
Issued before the research date but not read by the source, which used UN Comtrade to 2023: the NSO's preliminary 2025 tables put goods exports at US$475.1bn and imports at US$455.0bn; China supplied 40.9% of imports and the United States took 32.2% of exports.
NSO, preliminary exports and imports of goods in 2025 (issued 25 Mar 2026), retrieved 30 Sep 2026
Goods trade ran a US$20.46bn deficit in January to August 2026, against a US$14.02bn surplus a year earlier; imports rose 35.3% and exports 22.4%. The computers-and-electronics group ran a US$60.6bn deficit.
NSO, Report on socio-economic performance in August and 8 months of 2026 (issued 3 Sep 2026)
US imports from Vietnam were US$149.6bn in January to July 2026, and US exports to Vietnam US$10.8bn.
US Census Bureau, Trade in Goods with Vietnam (July data, released 3 Sep 2026)
In January to August 2026 China supplied 41.0% of Vietnam's goods imports and the United States took 32.6% of its exports.
NSO, preliminary exports and imports of goods in 2026 (issued 19 Sep 2026); shares computed by Strature
UN Comtrade still returned no 2024 or 2025 row for Vietnam as reporter; its 2023 row still returned. The chapter-level reading keeps its 2023 date.
UN Comtrade public preview route, queried 30 Sep 2026
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