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World risk · Finance and markets · Global debt & markets

The Egyptian pound loses a tenth of its value within three months

The test Between 28 Oct 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, the number of Egyptian pounds per US dollar in the Central Bank of Egypt's official rate rises by 10% or more over any 90 consecutive days.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
4Elevated steady this month
Impact
4Elevated steady this month
Breadth4
Depth4
Duration5
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Likelihood 5 to 4.
  2. Brent US$114.87; WSJ: US warned Gulf states of a possible renewed Iran campaign after 3 Nov [5]
  3. A Houthi official called Egypt's vote a declaration of war [6]
  4. Non-resident holdings of local debt fell from US$39.1bn (Feb) to US$22.2bn (early Apr 2026); pound down about 14-17%, later recovered much of it; gross financing needs about 40% of GDP; reserves comfortably above adequate [1]
  5. Saudi deposit of about US$5.434bn due Oct 2026, talks unresolved; an economist says Gulf support cannot be withdrawn before the EFF ends in Dec 2026 [3]

Why it matters

When the Iran war began, foreign holders sold Egyptian pound debt: their holdings fell from US$39.1bn in February 2026 to US$22.2bn in early April, and the pound fell about 14-17% (IMF). Both later recovered most of the loss. A renewed US campaign against Iran, the end of the IMF programme in December 2026, when, an economist told The New Arab, Gulf deposits lose their lock, and Egypt's new place in the Saudi-Houthi war could bring a repeat inside a year.

Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: a reported US warning of renewed strikes on Iran; the IMF mission chief's downside-risk warning; the IMF programme's end in December 2026 and an unresolved Saudi deposit; large gross financing needs; the Houthi front.

Why Impact 4 Key price USD/EGP; threshold case a 10% rise over 90 days.

The other facts on file (7)
  • IMF approved about US$1.8bn, US$7.3bn disbursed; inflation 14.3% in June; Mati: downside risk remains important [2] (31 Jul 2026)
  • GCC deposits US$18.3bn, Saudi US$10.3bn; conversion of US$4bn of Kuwaiti deposits stalled [4] (9 Apr 2026)
  • Remittances a record US$47.3bn in FY2025/26 [7] (30 Jun 2026)
  • Suez Canal revenue US$4.67bn in FY2025/26, up 23% [8] (30 Jun 2026)
  • Monthly gas import bill from about US$0.56bn to US$1.65bn for the same volumes [10] (Mar 2026)
  • Reserves including gold US$48.9bn at end-2025 [11] (31 Dec 2025)
  • Gas import bill nearly tripled, amplified by the pound's depreciation [12] (Apr 2026)

Where it sits

Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. The Egyptian pound loses a tenth of its value within three months: Elevated impact · possible1 · Elevated impact · possibleBab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan StraitUNITED STATESUNITED KINGDOMJAPANNORWAYFRANCEITALYPACIFIC OCEANINDIAN OCEANMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. The Egyptian pound loses a tenth of its value within three months: Elevated impact · possibleBab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan StraitUNITED STATESJAPANFRANCEITALYINDIAN OCEANMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

If

Between 28 Oct 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, the number of Egyptian pounds per US dollar in the Central Bank of Egypt's official rate rises by 10% or more over any 90 consecutive days.

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaNo direct Canadian channel.
  2. PricesImported fuel and food cost more; the IMF says the return to the inflation target was delayed a year [1].
  3. The budgetGas imports cost more in pounds [12]; financing needs of about 40% of GDP roll at higher rates [1] (Strature's view on rates).
  4. Gulf partnersA sharp fall raises the stakes of each deposit rollover (Strature's view).

Goods 2

Sectors 3

  • Banks and insurers
  • Energy and pipelines
  • Agriculture and food

Who is exposed

Countries
Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates
Sectors
Banks and insurers, Energy and pipelines, Agriculture and food
Goods
LNG, Wheat

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Steady pound

    Reserves, remittances and canal revenue absorb the strains, as after the March 2026 shock; the Saudi deposit is rolled or converted; portfolio money stays.

  2. S2

    War repeat

    A renewed US campaign on Iran sends foreign money out, as in March 2026.

  3. S3

    Programme gap

    The IMF programme ends in December 2026 with no successor and Gulf deposits start to leave.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1A statement on the October Saudi deposit
S2Non-resident holdings below US$30bn in central bank data
S3An IMF statement on a new arrangement, or none, by January 2027

No probability is given for the three paths.

Forecasts

Strature forecast linked to this risk

61%F-0074 · A renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran, 22 Aug-20 Nov 2026 (operative)
Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) · resolves by 20 Nov 2026
050100%

Where the card uses it Strature forecast F-0074 resolves. Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026)

A forecast is a probability on a dated question. The Likelihood score above is a separate judgement and is never turned into a percentage.

The forecast register lists every forecast and how it is scored.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. Oct 2026 Saudi deposit of about US$5.434bn falls due [3] Tentative · Outside event
  2. 3 Nov 2026 US midterm elections; reported date after which a renewed campaign may start [5] Tentative · Outside event

    Remind me

  3. 20 Nov 2026 Strature forecast F-0074 resolves. Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) [13] Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

  4. Dec 2026 IMF Extended Fund Facility ends; Gulf deposit lock ends with it [3] Tentative · Outside event
  5. 31 Oct 2027 End of the scored window Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · EGYPT · strature.net

The other side

A weaker pound makes Egypt's tourism, exports and property cheaper for buyers abroad. Gulf investors have kept building: Prime Minister Madbouly launched construction of Qatari Diar's Alam Al Roum project, with US$29.7bn of planned investment, in August 2026 [14]. Remittances, at a record, gain value in pounds [7].

Connected in Strature

Sources

13 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. IMF: Egypt Absorbs Economic Shocks of War. Asharq Al-Awsat · 23 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  2. Egypt unlocks $1.8bn IMF funding after passing review. The National · 31 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  3. Egypt seeks to keep $5.4 billion Saudi deposit as regional wars bite. The New Arab · 22 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  4. Central Bank of Egypt looks to renew USD 2 bn Kuwaiti deposit as regional conflict stalls FDI conversions. Enterprise AM · 9 Apr 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 6 Oct 2026
  5. Oil prices up due to Houthi strikes and US threat to renew Iran war. The National · 28 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  6. Iran war live updates. CBS News · 27 Oct 2026 · News · confidence low · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  7. Egypt Remittances Hit a Record US$47.3 Billion. The Rio Times · 21 Aug 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 6 Oct 2026
  8. Suez Canal Revenue Rises 23 Percent in the 2025/2026 Fiscal Year. Egyptian Streets · 30 Jun 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 6 Oct 2026
  9. Egypt's energy import bill more than doubles as global oil prices surge. TRT Afrika · 2026-03 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  10. Total reserves including gold (current US$), Egypt (FI.RES.TOTL.CD). World Bank · 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 6 Oct 2026
  11. Gas Market Report, Q2-2026. International Energy Agency · 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  12. Strature forecast register, F-0074. Strature · 21 Aug 2026 · Think tank · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  13. Madbouly launches construction of Qatari Diar's $29.7bn Alam Al Roum project in North Coast. Daily News Egypt · 9 Aug 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 6 Oct 2026

Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: Likelihood 5 to 4 · All risks