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Argentina needs another IMF waiver to keep its programme on track

The test Between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, the IMF Executive Board completes a review of Argentina's Extended Fund Facility arrangement that grants a waiver of nonobservance of a quantitative performance criterion.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 26 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
5Elevated steady this month
Impact
4Elevated steady this month
Breadth4
Depth3
Duration4
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. IMF data: 2026 growth 2.1%, average inflation 32.5%, end-year inflation 29.5%; 2027 growth 3.5%. [15]
  2. Official wholesale rate ARS 1,528.26 per US dollar on 23 Oct 2026. [12]
  3. Gross reserves US$41,095m on 30 Dec 2025 and US$50,228m on 21 Oct 2026. [7]
  4. Central bank FX purchases US$15,685m, 2 Jan to 20 Oct 2026 (Strature sum). [5]
  5. IMF (Chalk), 16 Oct 2026: technical discussions are advancing and a staff-level agreement is expected soon; 2026 growth forecast cut by about two points. [16]
  6. Third review mission 21-29 Sep 2026; talks continue towards a staff-level agreement; about US$900m on Board approval. [4]

Why it matters

Argentina owed the IMF SDR 41,789m on 31 Mar 2026. Both reviews of its US$20bn programme so far, in July 2025 and May 2026, missed the reserve target and came with a request for a waiver. The third review mission ended on 29 Sep without a staff-level agreement, and on 16 Oct the IMF said the technical talks were advancing and it expected a staff-level agreement soon. Reserves are now rising fast, which is the main brake.

Why Likelihood 5 Brakes: FX purchases well above the programme aim, gross reserves rising, a lowered end-June 2026 target, and on 16 Oct the IMF said technical talks were advancing and a staff-level agreement was expected soon [16].

Why Impact 4 Threshold case, a review completed with a waiver: one national economy; months; a market shock.

The other facts on file (10)
  • Outstanding IMF credit SDR 41,789m at 31 Mar 2026. [1] (31 Mar 2026)
  • EFF US$20bn (SDR 15.267bn) approved 11 Apr 2025; about US$15.8bn disbursed; second review completed 21 May 2026, about US$1bn; end-Dec 2025 NIR target missed. [2] (21 May 2026)
  • Report title lists a request for a waiver of nonobservance of a performance criterion; NIR miss 'largely reflecting a surge in dollarization ahead of the elections'. [3] (22 May 2026)
  • First review completed 31 Jul 2025, about US$2bn; the mid-June 2025 NIR target was missed. [13] (31 Jul 2025)
  • Country Report 25/219 (first review) title lists requests for a waiver of nonobservance of a performance criterion. [14] (1 Aug 2025)
  • Waiver requested for the end-Dec 2025 NIR performance criterion; end-June 2026 NIR target lowered; end-2025 shortfall about US$10bn; third review available from 31 Jul 2026 (SDR 636m), fourth from 31 Jan 2027, fifth from 31 Jul 2027. [17] (22 May 2026)
  • April 2026: FX purchases of at least US$10bn and NIR up at least US$8bn in 2026; primary surplus 1.4% of GDP; the zero-cash balance the key anchor. [6] (15 Apr 2026)
  • The BCRA's exchange-stabilisation agreement of up to US$20bn with the US Treasury was announced on 20 Oct 2025. [8] (20 Oct 2025)
  • The BCRA's 2025 financial statements date the signing of the US Treasury agreement to 18 Oct 2025 and say the transactions under it were settled before year-end. [9] (14 May 2026)
  • Canadian mining assets in Argentina C$8,143m, 2024 (preliminary). [10] (31 Dec 2024)

Where it sits

Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. Argentina needs another IMF waiver to keep its programme on track: Elevated impact · possible1 · Elevated impact · possibleBab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan StraitUNITED STATESUNITED KINGDOMJAPANNORWAYFRANCEITALYPACIFIC OCEANINDIAN OCEANMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. Argentina needs another IMF waiver to keep its programme on track: Elevated impact · possibleBab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan StraitUNITED STATESJAPANFRANCEITALYINDIAN OCEANMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

If

Between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, the IMF Executive Board completes a review of Argentina's Extended Fund Facility arrangement that grants a waiver of nonobservance of a quantitative performance criterion.

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaC$8,143m of Canadian mining assets in Argentina at end-2024 (preliminary) [10]; no sourced loss from a waiver.
  2. Programme credibilityA third waiver in a row [13][14][3] shows the reserve target as the weak point (Strature view).
  3. Bonds and the pesoA waiver keeps money flowing; read as a cost, not a break (Strature view).
  4. The US backstopThe US Treasury's swap of up to US$20bn (signed 18 Oct 2025 per the BCRA's financial statements, announced 20 Oct 2025) [8][9] sits beside the programme; its transactions were settled before end-2025 [9].

Sectors 3

  • Banks and insurers
  • Mining and metals
  • Energy and pipelines

Countries 3

Who is exposed

Countries
Argentina, United States, Canada
Sectors
Banks and insurers, Mining and metals, Energy and pipelines

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Clean reviews

    FX buying lifts NIR past the targets; the third review passes without a waiver.

  2. S2

    Waiver and carry on

    A target is missed again; the IMF grants a waiver with corrective measures, as in July 2025 and May 2026.

  3. S3

    Stall before the vote

    Election-year dollarisation drains reserves; no review is completed for months.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1A staff-level agreement on the third review with no waiver request
S2'Waiver of nonobservance' in a Board press release or report title
S3No staff-level agreement on the third review by the end of 2026

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. Nov 2026 Possible staff-level agreement on the third review (Nov-Dec 2026) [4] Tentative · Window
  2. 31 Jan 2027 Fourth review available, end-December 2026 performance criteria [17] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  3. 31 Jul 2027 Fifth review available, end-June 2027 performance criteria [17] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  4. 24 Oct 2027 General election, a test of dollarisation as in 2025 [11] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · ARGENTINA · strature.net

The other side

Central-bank buying of US$15.7bn in under ten months (Strature sum of the daily series) [5] gives Argentina the best chance in years to meet a reserve target outright. Clean reviews would cut borrowing costs and could reopen market access for the state and provinces.

Connected in Strature

Sources

17 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Argentina and the IMF. International Monetary Fund · 31 Mar 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  2. IMF Executive Board Completes Second Review... Argentina (PR 26/165). International Monetary Fund · 21 May 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  3. Argentina: 2026 Article IV Consultation, Second Review..., Requests for a Waiver of Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion (country report page). International Monetary Fund · 22 May 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  4. IMF urges Argentina to extend benefits of growth to workers. Buenos Aires Times · 1 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  5. Variación de reservas internacionales por compra de divisas, series 78. Banco Central de la República Argentina · 20 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  6. IMF Reaches Staff-Level Agreement on the Second Review under Argentina's EFF Arrangement (PR 26/120). International Monetary Fund · 15 Apr 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  7. Reservas internacionales, series 1. Banco Central de la República Argentina · 21 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  8. The BCRA and the U.S. Department of the Treasury sign a USD20 billion agreement for exchange rate stabilization. Banco Central de la República Argentina · 20 Oct 2025 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  9. Financial statements for 2025. Banco Central de la República Argentina · 14 May 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  10. Canadian Mining Assets (CMAs), by Country and Region, 2023 and 2024 (p). Natural Resources Canada · 2024 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  11. Código Electoral Nacional, Ley 19.945, art. 53. InfoLEG, Ministerio de Justicia · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  12. Tipo de cambio mayorista de referencia (Comunicación A 3500), series 5. Banco Central de la República Argentina · 23 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  13. IMF Executive Board Completes First Review of the Extended Arrangement Under the EFF for Argentina (PR 25/272). International Monetary Fund · 31 Jul 2025 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  14. IMF Country Report No. 25/219, Argentina: First Review..., Requests for a Waiver of Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion.... International Monetary Fund · 2025-08 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  15. IMF DataMapper API, Argentina: NGDP_RPCH, PCPIPCH, PCPIEPCH. International Monetary Fund · 26 Oct 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  16. El FMI recortó la previsión para 2026 pero espera una aceleración de la economía argentina en 2027. Canal 26 · 16 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  17. Argentina: 2026 Article IV Consultation, Second Review under the Extended Arrangement under the EFF (staff report PDF, ¶38 and Table 13). International Monetary Fund · 22 May 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026

Reviewed 26 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: reviewed · All risks