Iraqi crude through Ceyhan falls back below 0.4 mb/d for 30 days
The test Iraqi crude delivered to Ceyhan through the Iraq-Türkiye pipeline, federal and Kurdistan Region crude together, averages below 0.4 mb/d for 30 consecutive days between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, as reported by Iraq's oil ministry, SOMO, Türkiye's energy ministry or two independent news reports.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- About 450,000 b/d moving towards Ceyhan by 4 Oct, roughly 200,000 from Kurdistan fields [7]
- Draft 2027 budget asks the KRG for about 400,000 b/d for export; SOMO began compensating oil companies with extra cargoes on 15 Oct [7]
- Iraq's exports topped 3.4 mb/d in October through Hormuz, Ceyhan and tanker routes [7]
- Jan-Sep 2026 through Ceyhan: 50.76m barrels of northern Iraqi crude (about 188,000 b/d) and 25.1m barrels of Kurdistan crude (about 93,000 b/d) [6]
- Brent spot US$115.22/bbl on 20 Oct 2026 [9]
- Hormuz oil flows 10.9 mb/d in September; Gulf bypass exports 5.6 mb/d [8]
Show 4 earlier changes
- Kurdistan24: Kirkuk exports via the pipeline at 250,000 b/d (180,000 Kirkuk, 70,000 Kurdistan, by the outlet's information) [5]
- 250,000 b/d of southern crude trucked to Kirkuk storage (Basra Oil Company manager) [1]
- SOMO head: September export capacity 4.2m b/d, actual exports 2.5m b/d [1]
- Oil funds about 90% of Iraq's federal budget; Iraq has lost an estimated US$60bn in oil income since the war began (Al Jazeera) [1]
Why it matters
The Iraq-Türkiye pipeline to Ceyhan is Iraq's main working export route that avoids Hormuz; Al Jazeera describes it as one step to diversify exports, alongside ship-to-ship transfers. A one-year deal signed about 1 Aug 2026 sets its capacity at 0.75 mb/d, but a SOMO document puts the January-September average at about 0.28 mb/d. Flows rose to about 0.45 mb/d by 4 Oct by one count; this risk asks whether they slip back below 0.4 mb/d for a month.
Why Likelihood 6 Pushes: flows below 0.4 mb/d for most of 2026; Kurdistan output halted March to June; KRG says the 2027 budget quota is hard to meet; trucking costs as Hormuz reopens. Brakes: about 0.45 mb/d by 4 Oct (one source); arrears being settled since 15 Oct; capacity of 0.75 mb/d.
Why Impact 4 Threshold case: flows drop from about 0.45 to just under 0.4 mb/d for 30 days; no Brent move sourced.
The other facts on file (6)
- The 1973 Iraq-Türkiye pipeline agreement expired on 27 Jul 2026 [3] (2 Aug 2026)
- The pipeline system has two lines and 1.5 mb/d of capacity [10] (22 Jul 2025)
- Baghdad and the KRG agreed on 18 Mar 2026 to resume Kirkuk exports through the line to Ceyhan, initial capacity about 250,000 b/d (North Oil Company, as relayed) [14] (18 Mar 2026)
- One-year agreement carried out by SOMO and the North Oil Company for Iraq and BOTAS for Türkiye; 0.75 mb/d initial export capacity, conditional on security, Kurdistan output and southern links [3] (2 Aug 2026)
- Bayraktar: the deal keeps exports through Ceyhan while a long-term agreement is negotiated; Basra-Haditha-Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline procedures advancing [2] (2 Aug 2026)
- North Oil Company source: 120,000 b/d reaching Ceyhan (70,000 Kurdistan, 50,000 Kirkuk) [4] (25 Aug 2026)
Where it sits
How it spreads
Iraqi crude delivered to Ceyhan through the Iraq-Türkiye pipeline, federal and Kurdistan Region crude together, averages below 0.4 mb/d for 30 consecutive days between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, as reported by Iraq's oil ministry, SOMO, Türkiye's energy ministry or two independent news reports.
Not under wayChannels 5 on the card
- CanadaNo direct Canadian loss sourced.
- Iraq's budgetMore exports back on Hormuz at discounts of US$26.5-28 a barrel [1]; oil funds about 90% of the federal budget [1].
- TürkiyeLost transit fees and a weaker case for the energy corridor and the Basra-Ceyhan line (Strature's view).
- Oil marketsA few hundred thousand b/d is small against 5.6 mb/d of Gulf bypass exports [8]; no price move expected at the threshold (Strature's view).
- Hormuz exposureEvery barrel off the pipeline goes back through the strait.
Goods 1
Sectors 2
- Energy and pipelines
- Ports and logistics
Straits 1
Who is exposed
- Sectors
- Energy and pipelines, Ports and logistics
- Goods
- Crude oil
- Straits
- Strait of Hormuz
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
The line fills
Kurdistan output and trucking lift flows towards 0.75 mb/d.
- S2
Back to a trickle
A payment row, a security incident or cheaper Gulf routes push flows under 0.4 mb/d.
- S3
A deal gap
The one-year bridge ends around 1 Aug 2027 with no long-term agreement, and flows stall.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | A SOMO or ministry figure above 0.5 mb/d for a month |
| S2 | KRG output halted or SOMO suspending Kurdistan liftings |
| S3 | No draft long-term text by spring 2027 |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- Jan 2027 Iraq's 2027 federal budget in parliament, with the KRG export quota (window Nov 2026 - Jan 2027) [7] Tentative · Window
- Aug 2027 One-year Iraq-Türkiye pipeline agreement ends unless extended (about 1 Aug) [3] Declared · Outside event
The other side
If Hormuz shuts again, Ceyhan becomes Iraq's most valuable outlet, and Türkiye gains transit income and weight as a corridor (Strature's view). A long-term deal and the Basra-Ceyhan line would make that lasting (Strature's view).
Connected in Strature
- Was the Strait of Hormuz closed, or repriced cargo by cargo?
- Crude oil
- Strait of Hormuz
- Turkey
- Iraq
- The Strait of Hormuz shuts again Shares a channel: A second Hormuz closure would raise the pipeline's value; a calmer strait lowers Baghdad's incentive to truck crude north.
- Gulf crude to the Netherlands stops for a month again Shares a channel: Iraqi crude to Europe; that card notes the Kirkuk-Ceyhan or Basra origin of cargoes is not known.
Sources
11 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Iraq looks for oil export alternatives to the troubled Strait of Hormuz. Al Jazeera · 28 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Iraq Advances Basra-Ceyhan Pipeline as One-Year Turkey Export Deal Takes Effect. Peregraf · 2 Aug 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Iraq and Turkey agree to resume oil exports via Ceyhan port. Kurdpress · 2 Aug 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Kurdistan-Ceyhan Oil Pipeline Exports Hit 120,000 BPD. Channel8 · 25 Aug 2026 · News · confidence low · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Kirkuk oil exports via Kurdistan Region pipeline surge to 250,000 barrels per day. Kurdistan24 · 28 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Iraq oil sales exceed 533M barrels in 2026. Shafaq News · 24 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Kurdistan Digest, October 25, 2026. dckurd.org (Kurdistan Digest) · 26 Oct 2026 · Think tank · confidence low · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Oil Market Report, October 2026. International Energy Agency · 14 Oct 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Europe Brent spot price FOB, daily. US EIA · 21 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Turkiye, Iraq begin talks on new oil transport deal. Anadolu Agency · 22 Jul 2025 · News · confidence high · retrieved 6 Oct 2026
- Iraq resumes Kirkuk oil exports to Turkey via Ceyhan pipeline. Live Libnanews (relaying Middle East Eye) · 18 Mar 2026 · News · confidence low · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: reviewed · All risks