Gulf crude to the Netherlands stops for a month again
The test Eurostat's monthly data record zero crude oil imports into the Netherlands from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait together in at least one calendar month from November 2026 to October 2027.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
Follow this riskSign in to follow; one weekly email if you ask for it.
Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- 2025 monthly sum: Iraq about 4.05 Mt of 52.45 Mt (7.7%); four Gulf producers about 4.75 Mt (Saudi Arabia 0.70 Mt), 9.1% (Strature calculation); Iraq shipped every month [2]
- Gulf crude to the Netherlands zero in April, May and June 2026; no zero month from July 2023 to March 2026 [2]
- Total Dutch crude imports 4.68 Mt in April and May 2026 and 3.74 Mt in June (June 2025: 3.88 Mt; 2025 monthly range 3.34 to 5.08 Mt); US 0.72 Mt in April and 1.79 Mt in May; Norway 1.01 Mt in March and 1.19 Mt in April [2]
- July 2026: Iraq 0.15 Mt, UAE 0.07 Mt [2]
- Rotterdam crude throughput up 2.1% and product exports up 31.9% in Jan-Sep 2026 [5]
- Hormuz flows 10.9 mb/d in September; Gulf crude exports 13.9 mb/d, over 75% of pre-war; Iraq supply 4.10 mb/d; Dated averaged US$116.89 in September [3]
Show 2 earlier changes
Why it matters
It has already happened once this year. Eurostat's monthly data show no crude from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE or Kuwait reaching the Netherlands in April, May or June 2026, the first such months since at least mid-2023. Gulf crude came back in July, and Gulf exports were over 75% of pre-war levels in September. Dutch total crude imports barely moved while the Gulf barrels were gone: the risk is a cost, not a shortage.
Why Likelihood 5 Brakes: Iraq shipped every month from July 2023 to March 2026.
Why Impact 3 Threshold case one month without Gulf crude; Dated Brent not moved by this event alone. The worse case is the event of the risk “The Strait of Hormuz shuts again”.
Where it sits
How it spreads
Eurostat's monthly data record zero crude oil imports into the Netherlands from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait together in at least one calendar month from November 2026 to October 2027.
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaNo direct Canadian loss sourced; world prices if the cause is a new Hormuz closure.
- Refining costsDutch refiners would buy replacement Atlantic crude at war-time prices (a margin cost, not a supply gap).
- Products for north-west EuropeA grade change can alter refinery yields for the region's diesel and jet (not sized).
- Gulf sellersIraq would lose a European outlet of about 0.34 Mt a month; the four producers one of about 0.40 Mt a month (Strature calculation from 2025 monthly data [2]).
Goods 1
Sectors 2
- Energy and pipelines
- Ports and logistics
Straits 1
Countries 5
Who is exposed
- Countries
- Netherlands, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, European Union
- Sectors
- Energy and pipelines, Ports and logistics
- Goods
- Crude oil
- Straits
- Strait of Hormuz
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Back to normal
Gulf cargoes arrive most months, at lower volumes than 2024.
- S2
A thin trickle
Refiners keep Atlantic crude and Gulf cargoes come every second month.
- S3
A second stop
A renewed strike on Iran or a new closure of Hormuz cuts Basra loadings again.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | Eurostat shows Gulf crude each month from July 2026 |
| S2 | A zero month in Eurostat for August or September 2026 |
| S3 | F-0074 resolves yes by 20 Nov 2026. Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Forecasts
Strature forecast linked to this risk
Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) · resolves by 20 Nov 2026
Where the card uses it F-0074 resolves yes by 20 Nov 2026. Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026)
A forecast is a probability on a dated question. The Likelihood score above is a separate judgement and is never turned into a percentage.
The forecast register lists every forecast and how it is scored.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- Nov 2026 IEA Oil Market Report, November [3] Tentative · Outside event
- 20 Nov 2026 F-0074 resolves (a renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran). Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) [6] Declared · Strature date
Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.
The other side
The April-June stop showed Rotterdam can switch to Norwegian and US crude within a month (Strature reading of Eurostat monthly data [2]). Product exports from Rotterdam rose 31.9% in January-September 2026 [5] as Europe lost Gulf products, so the hub gains when Gulf refined supply falls.
Connected in Strature
- Was the Strait of Hormuz closed, or repriced cargo by cargo?
- Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and a renewed strike
- Crude oil
- Strait of Hormuz
- Netherlands
- Iraq
- Saudi Arabia
- United Arab Emirates
- European Union
- The Strait of Hormuz shuts again Driven by: A new Hormuz closure would cut Basra loadings.
- Saudi crude to Poland falls to a trickle for a month Shares a channel: Gulf crude to an EU refinery hub.
- A second EU country rations diesel or jet fuel Shares a channel: European product supply.
Sources
6 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, annual data (nrg_ti_oil), crude oil, Netherlands, 2024. Eurostat · 9 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (nrg_ti_oilm), crude oil, Netherlands, July 2023 to July 2026. Eurostat · 23 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Oil Market Report, October 2026. IEA · 14 Oct 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026. US EIA · 6 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Throughput in the port of Rotterdam rose by 0.9% in the first nine months of the year. Port of Rotterdam Authority · 16 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Forecast register (row F-0074). Strature · 2026 · Think tank · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: reviewed · All risks