Petrol stations run dry again in Vietnam's cities
The test Between 28 Oct 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, the Ministry of Industry and Trade, a provincial government or two national news outlets report retail fuel stations closed or limiting sales for lack of supply in Hanoi or Ho Chi Minh City and at least one other province in the same month.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Nghi Son 48-day turnaround from 10 Aug 2027; storage about 15 days; ministry to arrange imports [4]
- Gasoil supply short of demand in 4Q26; Hormuz flows 10.9 mb/d in September [7]
- Nghi Son resumed Kuwaiti crude imports in September 2026 after five months; supplies 35-40% of products [3]
- Nghi Son processed about 10 new crude types; long-term contract about 80% Kuwaiti [5]
Why it matters
Vietnam's petrol stations ran short twice in 2026: 17 Hanoi stations closed in March, and in July a Hanoi distributor said big wholesalers met only about 40% of its contracts. Kuwaiti crude for Nghi Son, which supplies 35-40% of the country's fuel, came back in September after five months. The next tests are a renewed Gulf strike (Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026)) and a 48-day Nghi Son shutdown from 10 Aug 2027, when its tanks cover about 15 days.
Why Likelihood 5 C: no market or poll; the event happened in March and July 2026. Brakes: Kuwaiti crude back from September and secured to November; 10 crude grades; a year's notice; ministry supply quotas.
Why Impact 3 Threshold case: closures in Hanoi or Ho Chi Minh City and one other province for some days.
The other facts on file (5)
- 17 Hanoi stations temporarily closed; some stations suspended sales; refineries meet about 70% of demand [1] (9 Mar 2026)
- Hanoi distributor got about 40% of contracted supply; southern wholesaler suspended its network about a month; Petrolimex: localized and temporary [2] (28 Jul 2026)
- F-0074 renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran, 22 Aug-20 Nov 2026: 61% [6] (21 Aug 2026)
- Kuwait about 80% of 14.2 Mt crude imports in 2025 [10] (13 May 2026)
- 2025 imports: crude 14.15 Mt (US$7.74bn), products 9.96 Mt (US$6.82bn) [11] (2025)
Where it sits
How it spreads
Between 28 Oct 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, the Ministry of Industry and Trade, a provincial government or two national news outlets report retail fuel stations closed or limiting sales for lack of supply in Hanoi or Ho Chi Minh City and at least one other province in the same month.
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- Transport and farmsDiesel was the scarcest fuel in July; trucking, fishing and farm work depend on it.
- PricesRetail prices reportedly reached up to VND44,000 a litre (Tuoi Tre, July 2026) [2].
- WholesalersLosses and credit limits pushed some sellers out in July.
Goods 2
Sectors 2
- Energy and pipelines
- Ports and logistics
Straits 1
Who is exposed
- Countries
- Vietnam, Kuwait, South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia
- Sectors
- Energy and pipelines, Ports and logistics, Agriculture and food
- Goods
- Refined fuels, Crude oil
- Straits
- Strait of Hormuz
- Companies
- Petrolimex, Nghi Son Refinery and Petrochemical
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Steady tanks
Kuwaiti cargoes keep coming and traders import ahead of the August turnaround.
- S2
Gulf relapse
A new strike on Iran cuts Kuwaiti loadings again and stations close within weeks.
- S3
Turnaround gap
Imports fall short in August-September 2027 while Nghi Son is down.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | The ministry's import plan for the shutdown |
| S2 | F-0074 resolves yes by 20 Nov 2026. Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) |
| S3 | Product import volumes in June-July 2027 |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Forecasts
Strature forecast linked to this risk
Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) · resolves by 20 Nov 2026
Where the card uses it F-0074 resolves yes by 20 Nov 2026. Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026)
A forecast is a probability on a dated question. The Likelihood score above is a separate judgement and is never turned into a percentage.
The forecast register lists every forecast and how it is scored.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- 20 Nov 2026 F-0074 resolves. Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) [6] Declared · Strature date
- Dec 2026 NSRP notifies the ministry of the turnaround plan [4] Tentative · Outside event
- 10 Aug 2027 Nghi Son 48-day turnaround starts [4] Declared · Window
- 31 Oct 2027 End of the scored window Declared · Strature date
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Connected in Strature
- Was the Strait of Hormuz closed, or repriced cargo by cargo?
- Refined fuels
- Crude oil
- Strait of Hormuz
- Vietnam
- Kuwait
- A big fuel exporter bans or halts diesel exports to protect its home market Driven by: The same regional gasoil shortfall.
- Australia orders diesel rationing or allocation Shares a channel: Diesel imports from Asian refiners.
- Shipping through the Singapore Strait stops for 48 hours or more Shares a channel: Product cargoes from Singapore and Malaysia.
Sources
9 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Vietnam adopts measures to ensure fuel supply amid Middle East tensions. Tuoi Tre News · 9 Mar 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- Vietnam fuel retailers report supply shortages as Petrolimex, wholesalers cite supply difficulties. Tuoi Tre News · 28 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- Vietnam's Nghi Son refinery resumes Kuwait crude imports, posts $530m profit. VietNamNet · 3 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- Nghi Son refinery to undergo 48-day turnaround in August 2027. Viet Nam News · 14 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- Nghi Son refinery builds alternative crude sources amid geopolitical risks. Viet Nam News · 3 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- Strature forecast register, F-0074. Strature · 21 Aug 2026 · Think tank · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- Oil Market Report, October 2026. International Energy Agency · 14 Oct 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Vietnam's supplies of crude, refined oil amid Iran war (Reuters). MarketScreener · 13 May 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 19 Oct 2026
- Statistics of main imports by month, December 2025 (Table 15B) (preliminary). General Department of Vietnam Customs, via AsemConnect Vietnam · 2026-01 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 23 Oct 2026
Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks