The US lifts its general tariff on EU goods above 15%
The test Between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, the US puts in force a tariff not under Section 232 that raises the total duty, MFN included, on most EU goods above 15%.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- No determination in the excess-capacity cases among USTR Federal Register documents to 26 Oct 2026 [11]
- Section 122 surcharge of 10% expired 24 Jul 2026; EU rebalancing duties suspended until 6 Feb 2027; Turnberry concessions apply 1 Jul 2026 to 31 Dec 2029 [2]
- 666 US tariff lines carry a 50% Section 338 duty on products of Canada since 22 Aug 2026 [13]
Why it matters
Since 24 Jul 2026 most EU goods have paid a US duty of 10% in total, MFN included, under a Section 301 forced-labour action. That is below the 15% both sides set in their August 2025 framework, which rested on tariffs since ended. A second, open Section 301 case on excess capacity names the EU, and the President promised a substantial tariff over EU digital fines on 24 Jul 2026; either could take the rate above 15%.
Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: the open excess-capacity case naming the EU with a decision generally due within 12 months, the President's promise of a substantial tariff on 24 Jul 2026 (two news reports), the German drug case, a US$220bn deficit.
Why Impact 5 Key flow US goods imports from the EU.
The other facts on file (10)
- Section 301 duty on EU goods tops MFN up to 10% in total; zero where MFN is 10% or more; from 24 Jul 2026; Section 232 goods excluded [1] (28 Jul 2026)
- EU and Taiwan pay 10% including MFN; Canada, Mexico, the UK and 14 others pay a flat 10% on top of MFN; Japan, South Korea and Switzerland pay 12.5% including MFN [1] (28 Jul 2026)
- Aug 2025 framework: higher of MFN or 15%, MFN included [3] (21 Aug 2025)
- EO 14389 of 20 Feb 2026 ended additional IEEPA duties [4] (20 Feb 2026)
- Excess-capacity Section 301 investigations opened 11 Mar 2026 on 16 economies including the EU; hearings set for 5 May 2026; EU surplus with the US US$237bn in 2024 [5] (17 Mar 2026)
- USTR generally decides within 12 months in cases not under a trade agreement [6] (13 Mar 2026)
- Section 301 case on Germany's pharmaceutical pricing opened 18 Jun 2026 [8] (24 Jun 2026)
- President said on 24 Jul 2026 that USTR would open a case on EU tech fines and he expected a substantial tariff [9] (24 Jul 2026)
- News report quotes his post: a substantial tariff on the EU at the earliest possible moment, through a USTR Section 301 case [12] (27 Jul 2026)
- US goods imports from the EU US$632.9bn in 2025; deficit US$220.3bn [7] (2026)
Where it sits
How it spreads
Between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, the US puts in force a tariff not under Section 232 that raises the total duty, MFN included, on most EU goods above 15%.
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaCanadian goods pay a flat 10% on top of MFN [1], and 666 lines a 50% Section 338 duty [13]; a possible gain on some lines (Strature's view), no Canadian loss sourced.
- EU exportersGoods outside Section 232 would pay more than 15% instead of 10% [1].
- EU responseSuspended rebalancing duties could return after 6 Feb 2027 [2]; Turnberry cuts could be reversed [2].
- Supply chainsUS buyers could move some orders to suppliers whose rate stays below the EU's, such as Japan, South Korea and Switzerland at 12.5% including MFN [1] (Strature's view; not sized).
Countries 7
- European Union primary
- United States primary
- Germany
- Ireland
- Italy
- France
- Canada
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
10% holds
The excess-capacity case ends without a new EU duty.
- S2
Excess-capacity tariff
USTR finds the EU's practices actionable and adds a duty that takes the total above 15%.
- S3
Digital trigger
A Section 301 case on EU digital rules opens after a new fine and ends in a tariff.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | A further EU suspension before 6 Feb 2027 |
| S2 | A determination notice in the Federal Register, generally due by about March 2027 |
| S3 | A Federal Register initiation notice naming the DMA or DSA |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- 6 Feb 2027 EU rebalancing duties on US goods: suspension ends unless extended [2] Declared · Outside event
- Mar 2027 Excess-capacity Section 301 cases: determination generally due within 12 months of 11 Mar 2026 [6] Tentative · Outside event
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The other side
Suppliers whose US rate stays below the EU's could win US market share on some lines (Strature's view). Pressure could also speed a written agreement that locks in lower rates.
Connected in Strature
- US tariffs and Canada
- European Union
- United States
- Germany
- Ireland
- Italy
- France
- Canada
- The US raises or widens its Section 301 "forced-labour" tariff on the 60 listed economies Driven by: The same Section 301 notice sets the EU's 10% rate; the parent scores a move above 12.5% under the forced-labour action only, this card the larger move above 15% by any non-Section 232 route [1].
- The US opens a trade case against EU digital rules Driven by: A digital Section 301 case is one route to a higher rate [9].
- The US raises its tariff on EU cars above the 15% deal rate Shares a channel: Section 232 caps on EU cars [2].
- The US raises its drug tariff on EU medicines above 15% Shares a channel: Section 232 caps on EU medicines [2].
- The US raises its tariff on UK goods above 10% or ends the UK's zero drug rate Shares a channel: The same Section 301 notice [1].
- The US raises its tariff on Swiss goods or Swiss medicines Shares a channel: The same Section 301 notice [1].
Sources
12 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Notice of Actions in Section 301 Investigations... Forced Labor (2026-15181). USTR, Federal Register · 28 Jul 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- US tariffs: US and EU tariff measures in force. French customs (DGDDI) · 20 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Joint Statement on a United States-European Union Framework on an Agreement on Reciprocal, Fair and Balanced Trade. The White House · 21 Aug 2025 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Ending Certain Tariff Actions (Executive Order 14389). Federal Register · 20 Feb 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Initiation of Section 301 Investigations: Structural Excess Capacity and Production in Manufacturing Sectors (2026-05214). USTR, Federal Register · 17 Mar 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 (IF11346). Congressional Research Service · 13 Mar 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Trade in goods with European Union. US Census Bureau · 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Initiation of Section 301 Investigation: Germany's Persistent Underpayment for Innovative Pharmaceutical Products (2026-12671). USTR, Federal Register · 24 Jun 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Trump promises new Section 301 probe and tariffs over EU's digital fines. Inside US Trade · 24 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Federal Register search: USTR documents with the term Section 301, published from 1 Mar 2026. Federal Register API · 26 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Trump targets EU over Google fine, putting trade deal at risk. The National News Desk (KATV) · 27 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States, Revision 20, chapter 99 note 51 (Section 338 duty on products of Canada). USITC · 30 Sep 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: reviewed · All risks