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World risk · Trade, tariffs and sanctions · US trade & foreign policy

The US raises or widens its Section 301 "forced-labour" tariff on the 60 listed economies

The test Between 26 Oct 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, the US raises its Section 301 forced-labour tariff on any of the 60 listed economies above 12.5%, or moves an economy from the 10% tier to 12.5% or more.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
4Elevated steady this month
Impact
5Elevated steady this month
Breadth5
Depth3
Duration7
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. 11 USTR Federal Register notices since 29 Jul 2026, none on this action [5]
  2. 2018 China Section 301 actions remain in effect, subject to possible further modifications, during the second four-year review [9]
  3. Comments for the 2027 USMCA joint review due 12 Jan 2027 [6]
  4. Court of International Trade heard In re: Section 301 Forced Labor Cases (No. 26-cv-3555) on 30 Sep 2026; no ruling date [4]
  5. 50% Section 338 duty on products of Canada from 22 Aug 2026, 666 tariff lines, whatever CUSMA origin [7]

Why it matters

Since 24 Jul 2026 the US has charged a Section 301 tariff of 10% or 12.5% on goods from 60 economies that, USTR found, fail to ban or enforce a ban on imports made with forced labour. It replaced a temporary 10% tariff that followed the Supreme Court's February ruling against IEEPA tariffs. No notice has changed a rate or a tier since July, and the Court of International Trade heard a challenge on 30 Sep. The risk is a rate above 12.5% for any economy, or a move up from the 10% tier.

Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: tiers tied to deals and enforcement that can lapse; the US raised duties on single partners with other tools in 2026 (Section 338 on Canada, a separate 301 on Brazil); 60 economies. Brakes: no change in three months; the Court of International Trade case; other tools available instead.

Why Impact 5 A rate above 12.5%; threshold case one economy just above 12.5%.

The other facts on file (5)
  • Section 301 duties from 24 Jul 2026: 10% flat for 17 economies (incl. Canada, Mexico, India, Indonesia, UK, Pakistan); 10% net of MFN for the EU and Taiwan; 12.5% net of MFN for Japan, South Korea, Switzerland; 12.5% flat for 38 others (incl. China, Australia, Brazil, Singapore) [1] (28 Jul 2026)
  • USMCA duty-free goods of Canada and of Mexico (separate annex notes), Section 232 goods (steel, aluminium, copper, vehicles and parts, wood, semiconductors) and pharmaceuticals exempt; textile TRQs for Bangladesh, Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia with initial duration of three years [1] (28 Jul 2026)
  • Proposal of 2 Jun 2026: 14 economies in the 10% tier; 60 economies make up 99% of US imports; replaces the 10% Section 122 tariff expiring 24 Jul [2] (Jun 2026)
  • Supreme Court: IEEPA does not authorize the President to impose tariffs [3] (20 Feb 2026)
  • Separate Section 301 duty of 25% on Brazilian goods, with exemptions, since 22 Jul 2026 [10] (15 Jul 2026)

Where it sits

11. The US raises or widens its Section 301 "forced-labour" tariff on the 60 listed economies: Elevated impact · possible1 · Elevated impact · possibleOttawaMexico CityCANADAMEXICOUNITED STATESPACIFIC OCEANATLANTIC OCEANGULF OF MEXICO01000 kmat 40°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
11. The US raises or widens its Section 301 "forced-labour" tariff on the 60 listed economies: Elevated impact · possibleWashingtonCANADAMEXICOUNITED STATESGULF OF MEXICO0500 kmat 40°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

If

Between 26 Oct 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, the US raises its Section 301 forced-labour tariff on any of the 60 listed economies above 12.5%, or moves an economy from the 10% tier to 12.5% or more.

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaCanada sits in the 10% tier with USMCA duty-free goods exempt [1]; hit only if Canada is moved up.
  2. US landed pricesAt least 2.5 more points of duty on an economy's non-exempt goods, the gap between the 10% and 12.5% tiers [1].
  3. Trade dealsA move up would signal a lapsed deal and put a clock on pending ones.
  4. Supply chainsThe hit falls on goods outside the USMCA and Section 232 exemptions [1].

Sectors 2

  • Ports and logistics
  • Agriculture and food

Who is exposed

Countries
United States, Canada, Mexico, India, Indonesia, European Union, Taiwan, United Kingdom, Japan, South Korea, Switzerland, China, Australia, Brazil, Singapore
Sectors
Ports and logistics, Agriculture and food

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Steady tiers

    Rates stay at 10% and 12.5% while the court rules and deals are implemented.

  2. S2

    Tier shuffle

    An economy whose deal stalls or whose ban is judged not enforced moves to 12.5%, or a partner is pushed above 12.5%.

  3. S3

    Court reversal

    The Court of International Trade finds the action unlawful or sends it back; the administration turns to other tools.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1No USTR modification notice by mid-2027
S2A USTR notice modifying the action and naming a new rate
S3The ruling in No. 26-cv-3555

No probability is given for the three paths.

Forecasts

Strature forecast linked to this risk

20%F-0170 · Washington opens a Section 301 investigation of Canada's Online Streaming Act
Strature forecast F-0170: 20% (1 Oct 2026) · resolves by 30 Sep 2027
050100%

A forecast is a probability on a dated question. The Likelihood score above is a separate judgement and is never turned into a percentage.

The forecast register lists every forecast and how it is scored.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. Oct 2026 Court of International Trade ruling in No. 26-cv-3555 awaited (window open from Oct 2026; no date given) [4] Tentative · Window
  2. 2027 USMCA annual joint review meeting [6] Tentative · Outside event
  3. 12 Jan 2027 Deadline for comments before the 2027 USMCA joint review [6] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · WORLD · strature.net

The other side

The lower tier is a price for adopting forced-labour import bans: economies that legislate can lock in 10%, and their exporters gain against 12.5% rivals [1][2]. Exempt or lower-tier trade, such as Canada's USMCA goods, gains share when others move up.

Connected in Strature

Sources

9 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Notice of Actions in Section 301 Investigations of Acts, Policies, and Practices of Various Economies (FR Doc. 2026-15181). Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, Federal Register · 28 Jul 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  2. USTR releases findings in its Section 301 Investigation into 'Forced Labour' - June 2026. New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade · 2026-06 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  3. Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump, No. 24-1287 (slip opinion, syllabus). Supreme Court of the United States · 20 Feb 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  4. Trade Court Questions Legal Basis of Section 301 Forced-Labor Tariffs. ExFreight · 1 Oct 2026 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  5. Federal Register documents search: USTR, published from 2026-07-29. Federal Register · 26 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  6. Request for Public Comments and Notice of Public Hearing Relating to the Operation of the USMCA (91 FR 63379). Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, Federal Register · 5 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  7. Dossier CAN, theme us-tariffs-canada (Section 338 duty). Strature Library · 6 Oct 2026 · Think tank · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  8. Continuation of Actions: China's Acts, Policies, and Practices Related to Technology Transfer, Intellectual Property, and Innovation (FR Doc. 2026-20510). Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, Federal Register · 7 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  9. Notice of Action, Section 301 investigation of Brazil (final action). Office of the U.S. Trade Representative · 15 Jul 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 6 Oct 2026

Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: reviewed · All risks