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World risk · Trade, tariffs and sanctions · US trade & foreign policy

The US tariff wall around Canada and Mexico stays up or grows

The test Between 25 Oct 2026 and 30 Sep 2027, no published US-Canada arrangement lifts the Section 338 duties and bans on Canadian goods, and the US keeps or widens duties of 25% or more on goods of Canada or Mexico that qualify under CUSMA (Section 338 or Section 232). It is built on the inverse of Strature forecast F-0172, plus a Section 232 limb.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
8High rising this month

Likelihood ↑ Since 8 Sep 2026: the US signed import bans on Canadian goods effective 29 Sep (Proclamation 11063) and redrew two lists (11064, 11065), after Canada suspended talks on 21 Aug (announced 22 Aug).

Impact
6Elevated steady this month
Breadth6
Depth5
Duration8
Hard to substitute6
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Impact 8 to 6.

Why it matters

The treaty no longer keeps Canadian goods safe. The US declined to extend CUSMA/USMCA on 1 July 2026, a 50% Section 338 duty has applied to three lists of Canadian goods since 22 Aug, and bans followed on 29 Sep. On 23 Oct the US redrew the list of Canadian goods under the 50% Section 338 duty again, from 30 Oct. The Section 232 duties on steel, aluminium, copper, autos, trucks and lumber still apply to both partners, and Mexico, closer to a deal, has not won published relief on autos or metals.

Why Likelihood 8 Pushes: no proclamation has an end date and the 8 Sep bans set no condition for lifting; Canada suspended talks on 21 Aug; Mexico had no published Section 232 relief on 20 Oct. Brakes: a near-final deal existed in August; Mexico aims to close its review by year end and was in Washington talks on 23 Oct.

Why Impact 6 Threshold case: the duties and bans stay as they are to 30 Sep 2027 on Canadian and Mexican autos, metals, forestry, dairy and alcohol. Brakes: duties collected were 3.2% of import value from Canada and Mexico in Aug 2026, and about 80% of US imports from the two partners claimed CUSMA by Jul 2025.

The other facts on file (57)
  • USTR's notice of 5 October 2026 states that "the United States did not agree to extend the Agreement for a new 16-year term" at the 1 July 2026 joint review. Under Article 34.7, a joint review now happens every year until all three parties confirm extension. Without that confirmation, the agreement ends on 1 July 2036. [11]
  • Comments for the 2027 review are due on 12 January 2027, and no hearing date has been set. [11] [12]
  • Mexico's Economy Secretary, Marcelo Ebrard, said on 20 October: "the treaty is going to be in force for 10 years. We are going to an annual review" (Strature's translation). [34]
  • On 20 July 2026 the US President signed three Section 338 proclamations: 11046 (alcohol), 11047 (dairy) and 11048 (motor vehicles). They impose an additional 50% duty on listed goods of Canada, the most that section 338 allows. [6]
  • The stated grievance is Canada's 25% tariff on US vehicles that do not qualify under CUSMA. The proclamation says US vehicle exports to Canada fell about 22%, from about US$25.9bn to US$20.3bn, in April 2025 to March 2026 against a year earlier. [6]
  • Goods paying Section 232 duties were first excluded. [6]
  • Since 15 September the alcohol and vehicle lists stack on top of Section 232. [9]
  • Proclamation 11056 moved the start date from 19 to 22 August 2026. It says that, according to senior officials, Canada "has expressed a commitment to remove" the measures. [7]
  • On 22 August the Prime Minister said he had suspended trade negotiations the evening before, 21 August. [57]
  • On 25 August Finance Canada said the US was "asking too much of Canada, and offering too little in return". [25]
  • The US dates the break to 21 August, when, in its words, Canada "reneged on its commitment". [8]
  • On 24 August the US President posted that all Canadian cars, trucks, automotive parts and steel would pay 50% from 1 January 2027, as TNND reported. [49]
  • No proclamation to that effect was published in the Federal Register to 22 October. [54]
  • On 8 September the US signed three import bans, effective 29 September: Proclamations 11061 (alcohol), 11062 (dairy) and 11063 (vehicles). [8] [54]
  • The bans state no review date and no condition for lifting them; if a ban is struck down, the 50% duty applies again. [8] [54]
  • The vehicle ban covers motorcycles over 800 cc, among other goods. [8]
  • The same day the US redrew the vehicle and alcohol lists from 15 September (Proclamations 11064 and 11065). [9]
  • USTR said Canada "walked away from a near-final trade deal". The US added "strategic Canadian sectors", dropped "non-sensitive" goods, and ordered US$50bn of Canadian-origin products removed from federal purchasing schedules. [10]
  • The President's memorandum of 16 September directs the budget office and USTR to identify Canadian-origin items in federal civil procurement that can be removed; it states no amount. [56]
  • A proclamation of 23 October 2026 further modifies Proclamation 11048's list of Canadian goods under the 50% Section 338 duty, effective 30 October 2026. It removes plywood sheets, some paper products, certain machinery and refrigeration equipment, and certain packing crates and boxes, and adds certain valves, carpets, waste products and other goods. The duty applies whether or not a good originates under CUSMA, and on top of Section 232 duties (White House fact sheet). [60]
  • A law-firm summary reports 22 tariff classifications removed and 100 added, effective 12:01 a.m. eastern time on 30 October, with no exemption for goods in transit; the fact sheet gives no counts (International Trade Insights, medium). [61]
  • The duty covers 666 tariff lines. Of these, 68 have been banned from import since 29 September. [3]
  • Listed goods were worth US$10.1bn to US$27bn of 2025 US imports, depending on how partly listed headings are counted. [1]
  • CUSMA origin does not protect a good from Section 338 or Section 232. [3]
  • From 8 September 2026 Canada set counter-tariffs of 15%, 25% and 50% on US goods worth "$27.6 billion", matching the US rates. [25]
  • Its steel and aluminium counter-tariffs rose from 25% to 50%. Its auto counter-tariffs from April 2025 remain. [25] [30]
  • It added a C$7.5bn support package, on top of nearly C$25bn already provided. [25]
  • The Advisory Committee on Canada-US Economic Relations held its ninth meeting since April on 22 October. The readout reports work on "unjustified trade measures" but no talks date. [27]
  • On 20 February 2026 the Supreme Court held that IEEPA "does not authorize the President to impose tariffs" (Learning Resources v. Trump, No. 24-1287). [13]
  • The same day, Executive Order 14389 ended the IEEPA duties on Canada and Mexico. [14]
  • Proclamation 11012 put a 10% Section 122 surcharge in their place from 24 February. It exempted CUSMA goods, energy and goods under Section 232, and ended on 24 July 2026. [15]
  • Since 6 April 2026, steel, aluminium and most copper articles pay duty on their full customs value, "regardless of metal content": most derivatives 50%, some 25% (Proclamation 11021). [16]
  • Proclamation 11032 took effect on 8 June 2026. It sets a 25% rate on the non-US content of CUSMA-qualifying derivative products from Canada and Mexico listed in its Annex I-C, with a floor of 15%. That schedule runs to 31 December 2027. [17]
  • From 14 October 2026, Commerce's guidance tells customs to count as US content the value of parts made or substantially transformed in the US and of steel, aluminium and copper melted or smelted and cast there; it changes no rate. [48]
  • On 20 July 2026 the US offered approved companies that build or expand US primary aluminium capacity "half the section 232 rate" (Proclamation 11045). It created no rate specific to Canada. [18]
  • Cars have paid 25% since 3 April 2025. For a CUSMA-qualifying car, the duty falls only on the value of its non-US content. CUSMA parts stay exempt until Commerce sets up a process. [19] [42]
  • Medium and heavy trucks have paid 25% since 1 November 2025, buses 10%. [20]
  • Semi-finished copper has paid 50% since 1 August 2025. A 15% duty on refined copper from 1 January 2027 was left to a report due by 30 June 2026. [21]
  • No decision on it was published in the Federal Register to 22 October 2026. [54]
  • Softwood lumber pays 10% under Section 232. [22]
  • On 19 October 2026 Commerce set final duty rates for 2024 for non-selected Canadian mills: 10.64% anti-dumping and 14.11% countervailing. [23] [24]
  • Together with the Section 232 duty, those mills face about 34.75%, a Strature calculation. [22] [23] [24]
  • Canfor, West Fraser and Resolute were selected for the review and have their own 2024 anti-dumping rates (17.00%, 4.71% and 13.13%). [23]
  • West Fraser's and Resolute's countervailing rates are 15.31% and 12.42%. [24]
  • Ottawa has announced loan support to the lumber firms Millar Western, Arbec and Conifex Timber. [45] [46] [47]
  • Mexico and the US held review rounds on 28-29 May, 16-17 June and 21-23 July 2026. [31]
  • A fourth round was planned in Washington for early September. [32]
  • Its outcome was not reported; Ebrard held further talks in Washington on 23 October. [52]
  • The US reportedly wants 50% US content in vehicles and 82% regional content, up from 75%. [31]
  • Mexico rejects the 50% US-content demand. It treats relief on the 25% auto duty and the 50% metals duty as a precondition for progress on other issues. [32]
  • On 1 October Ebrard said the two sides were working to narrow positions (Strature's translation), without giving terms. [33]
  • On 20 October he said he wants the review closed before the end of the year. He said there had been about 115 meetings on trade and Section 232. He named autos, steel, aluminium and the ongoing Section 301 investigations as the open issues. [34]
  • The same day he welcomed an announcement by the US President on Mexico's Section 232 requests; no terms were published. [34]
  • On 23 October Ebrard was in Washington for more talks, and the US President said the two countries were close to a deal, without details; no agreement has been announced (Crónica). [52]
  • Bloomberg reported, citing unnamed people, that talks had stalled over Section 232 relief on steel, aluminium and downstream metal goods, and that real progress could wait until after the 3 November US midterms (as SteelOrbis relayed on 23 October). [51]
  • In August 2026, the month the Section 338 duty began on the 22nd, duties came to 3.2% of the value of US imports from Canada, and 3.2% for Mexico (USAFacts estimate). [40]
  • About 80% of US imports from the two partners together claimed the CUSMA preference by July 2025, up from under 40% for Canada and about 50% for Mexico. [35]

Where it sits

11. The US tariff wall around Canada and Mexico stays up or grows: Elevated impact · likely1 · Elevated impact · likelyWashingtonOttawaMexico CityCANADAMEXICOUNITED STATESPACIFIC OCEANATLANTIC OCEANGULF OF MEXICO01000 kmat 40°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
11. The US tariff wall around Canada and Mexico stays up or grows: Elevated impact · likelyWashingtonCANADAMEXICOUNITED STATES0500 kmat 40°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

If

Between 25 Oct 2026 and 30 Sep 2027, no published US-Canada arrangement lifts the Section 338 duties and bans on Canadian goods, and the US keeps or widens duties of 25% or more on goods of Canada or Mexico that qualify under CUSMA (Section 338 or Section 232). It is built on the inverse of Strature forecast F-0172, plus a Section 232 limb.

Not under way

Channels 6 on the card

  1. Canada's growthIn the five largest listed groups, the US buys 77% to 99% of Canada's exports on each line, so most sellers have no ready second market [2].
    More

    Absorbing the duty wipes out exporters' margins in those groups unless US customers carry at least 54% to 81% of it with no sales lost [2]. Strature's registered estimate of a Canadian recession by the fourth quarter of 2027 is 25% (Strature forecast F-0174, 1 Oct 2026) [5]. Ottawa tables Budget 2026 on 5 November [26].

  2. Canada's trade mapCanada's sales to countries other than the US reached C$254.1bn in August 2025 to July 2026 [36].
    More

    In August 2026, the month the duty began, Canada's exports to the US rose 8.1% and those to other countries fell 8.5%; the surplus with the US widened from C$6.1bn to C$11.2bn, and the non-US share of exports fell to 30.2% from 33.9% [53]. September data come on 4 November [53]. The EU's share of Canada's goods exports rose from 4.4% in 2024 to 5.8% in January-July 2026 [4]. The Canada-EU summit meets in Montréal on 29-30 October [28]. Strature's Q-027 work counts six deals drafted for it, none of which touches a tariff [4].

  3. Autos across the continentCanada's exports of motor vehicles and parts to the US were about C$73bn in 2025 (Strature estimate from the change Global Affairs Canada reports) [38].
    More

    A US 50% tariff on Canadian vehicles, as threatened on 24 August [49], would fall on part of that flow. Strature registers such a tariff at 40% by 30 Sep 2027 (Strature forecast F-0167, 1 Oct 2026) [5]. Mexico, the other CUSMA assembler, could gain if Canadian assembly loses US access (Strature's view). Mexico is also exposed to the same US-content demands [31].

  4. Steel, aluminium and lumber prices in the USCanada sold the US about C$51bn of metal and non-metallic mineral products in 2025, largely aluminium, and about C$37bn of forestry and building products (Strature estimates from Global Affairs Canada) [38].
    More

    Duties on these goods pass into US building and manufacturing costs, because there is little supply to switch to (Strature's view).

  5. The rulebookA deal may set the price of access as Canada adopting US tariffs on third countries in named sectors (F-0176) [5].
    More

    Bloomberg reported, citing unnamed sources, that the US asked Mexico to match its steel and aluminium tariffs on imports from outside North America; no agreement has been announced [31]. From 1 January 2026, Mexico raised its general import tariffs, to as much as 50%, on about 1,400 lines; partners with a trade agreement in force keep their treaty rates (Strature's reading of the decree, which refers to imports from countries with no free trade agreement in force) [31][43]. On 7 October 2026 Canada and Mexico joined the US and twelve other economies in a ministerial statement on global excess capacity that sets up "dedicated sectoral platforms"; it names no tariff [50]. Strature forecast F-0176: 7% (1 Oct 2026).

  6. Capital and courtsOn 20 October 2026 Gellert Global Group, a New Jersey importer, sued in the Court of International Trade for itself and a proposed class of importers, represented by the Liberty Justice Center, asking the court to declare the Section 338 duty unlawful and order refunds [58][59].
    More

    At the only pace on record, a court exit would stop collection only after June 2027 [2]. Strature registers a court ruling against the duty by 30 Sep 2027 as F-0175 [5]. Strature forecast F-0175: 12% (1 Oct 2026).

Goods 9

Sectors 7

  • Autos
  • Mining and metals
  • Forestry
  • Furniture
  • Paper
  • Agriculture and food
  • Alcohol

Countries 3

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    The wall holds and talks grind on

    Section 338 lists and bans stay and are redrawn on their dates; Mexico gets an interim Section 232 deal and Canada none; annual reviews roll on without extension.

  2. S2

    A deal and a partial lift

    A published US-Canada arrangement lifts the Section 338 duties and bans (F-0172), perhaps in return for aligning Canada's outside tariffs (F-0176); Section 232 duties fall to non-US content but do not end. Strature forecast F-0172: 25% (1 Oct 2026); Strature forecast F-0176: 7% (1 Oct 2026).

  3. S3

    Widening into autos

    A US proclamation puts 50% or more on Canadian-made vehicles from 1 Jan 2027 or later (F-0167); more lines move from duty to ban; CUSMA-exempt goods come under threat; at the extreme, withdrawal notice (F-0165). Strature forecast F-0167: 40% (1 Oct 2026); Strature forecast F-0165: 4% (1 Oct 2026).

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1No Canada-US talks date by the 5 Nov budget
S1US-Mexico interim text before 31 Dec 2026
S1Section 338 trade data on 4 Nov and 8 Dec 2026
S2A suspension proclamation like 11056
S2Canada pauses its 8 Sep counter-tariffs
S2Greer's aim of at least some arrangements with Mexico met by year end
S3A Section 338 or 232 proclamation naming Canadian vehicles
S3New annex changes like those of 8 Sep 2026
S3A Section 301 case on the Online Streaming Act (F-0170). Strature forecast F-0170: 20% (1 Oct 2026)

No probability is given for the three paths.

Forecasts

Strature forecast linked to this risk

7%F-0156 · the duty ends
Strature forecast F-0156: 7% (30 Sep 2026) · resolves by 31 Dec 2026
050100%

Other forecasts the card links Open one for what it forecasts and where the card uses it

  • F-015723%Forecasts: partial relief

    The card links it as a related forecast.

    Strature forecast F-0157: 23% (30 Sep 2026) · resolves by 31 Dec 2026 · brief Q-022

  • F-015825.2%Forecasts: the duty lasts, US-bound sales hold

    The card links it as a related forecast.

    Strature forecast F-0158: 25.2% (30 Sep 2026) · resolves by 31 Dec 2026 · brief Q-022

  • F-015928%Forecasts: the duty lasts, US-bound sales cut

    The card links it as a related forecast.

    Strature forecast F-0159: 28% (30 Sep 2026) · resolves by 31 Dec 2026 · brief Q-022

  • F-016015.4%Forecasts: the duty lasts, US-bound sales collapse

    The card links it as a related forecast.

    Strature forecast F-0160: 15.4% (30 Sep 2026) · resolves by 31 Dec 2026 · brief Q-022

  • F-01611.4%Forecasts: the duty lasts, sales not yet measured

    The card links it as a related forecast.

    Strature forecast F-0161: 1.4% (30 Sep 2026) · resolves by 31 Dec 2026 · brief Q-022

  • F-016227%Forecasts: The zombie agreement: no renewal, no withdrawal - annual reviews roll on with the agreement unchanged and investment held back by the doubt ("Hotel California")

    The card links it as a related forecast.

    Strature forecast F-0162: 27% (1 Oct 2026) · resolves by 30 Sep 2027 · brief C-006

  • F-016351%Forecasts: Escalation short of withdrawal - tit-for-tat, more bans, 50% auto tariffs from January, and a progressive shrinking of tariff-free trade

    The card links it as a related forecast.

    Strature forecast F-0163: 51% (1 Oct 2026) · resolves by 30 Sep 2027 · brief C-006

  • F-016410%Forecasts: The agreement is renewed or extended - with limited concessions or tighter terms (stricter auto rules of origin), possibly needing Congress

    The card links it as a related forecast.

    Strature forecast F-0164: 10% (1 Oct 2026) · resolves by 30 Sep 2027 · brief C-006

  • F-01654%Forecasts: US withdrawal, severe fragmentation - the agreement ends and the 50% Section 338 rate, or an import ban, is extended to goods now exempt, on top of the Section 232 duties already in force

    at the extreme, withdrawal notice (F-0165). Strature forecast F-0165: 4% (1 Oct 2026).

    Strature forecast F-0165: 4% (1 Oct 2026) · resolves by 30 Sep 2027 · brief C-006

  • F-01668%Forecasts: All other outcomes (trade agreement)

    The card links it as a related forecast.

    Strature forecast F-0166: 8% (1 Oct 2026) · resolves by 30 Sep 2027 · brief C-006

  • F-016740%Forecasts: The threatened 50% US tariff on Canadian vehicles takes effect

    A US proclamation puts 50% or more on Canadian-made vehicles from 1 Jan 2027 or later (F-0167); Strature forecast F-0167: 40% (1 Oct 2026);

    Strature forecast F-0167: 40% (1 Oct 2026) · resolves by 30 Sep 2027 · brief C-006

  • F-016820%Forecasts: The one oil route to the West Coast fills: Trans Mountain begins apportioning spot nominations

    The card links it as a related forecast.

    Strature forecast F-0168: 20% (1 Oct 2026) · resolves by 31 Dec 2028 · brief C-006

  • F-016930%Forecasts: China's tariff relief on Canadian peas, canola meal and seafood lapses at the end of 2026

    The card links it as a related forecast.

    Strature forecast F-0169: 30% (1 Oct 2026) · resolves by 1 Jan 2027 · brief C-006

  • F-017020%Forecasts: Washington opens a Section 301 investigation of Canada's Online Streaming Act

    A Section 301 case on the Online Streaming Act (F-0170). Strature forecast F-0170: 20% (1 Oct 2026)

    Strature forecast F-0170: 20% (1 Oct 2026) · resolves by 30 Sep 2027 · brief C-006

  • F-017160%Forecasts: The Labrador hydro programme misses its own date for binding agreements

    The card links it as a related forecast.

    Strature forecast F-0171: 60% (1 Oct 2026) · resolves by 31 Dec 2026 · brief C-006

  • F-017225%Forecasts: The trade war is sorted out and proves temporary - talks resume and the new tariffs fall

    A published US-Canada arrangement lifts the Section 338 duties and bans (F-0172), perhaps in return for aligning Canada's outside tariffs (F-0176); Strature forecast F-0172: 25% (1 Oct 2026);

    Strature forecast F-0172: 25% (1 Oct 2026) · resolves by 30 Sep 2027 · brief C-006

  • F-017392%Forecasts: A lasting break: a later US president tries to repair relations but the old lockstep does not return

    The card links it as a related forecast.

    Strature forecast F-0173: 92% (1 Oct 2026) · resolves by 30 Sep 2027 · brief C-006

  • F-017425%Forecasts: Canada falls into recession

    Strature's registered estimate of a Canadian recession by the fourth quarter of 2027 is 25% (Strature forecast F-0174, 1 Oct 2026) [5].

    Strature forecast F-0174: 25% (1 Oct 2026) · resolves by 31 Dec 2027 · brief C-006

  • F-017512%Forecasts: The Section 338 tariffs are struck down or narrowed in a US court

    Strature registers a court ruling against the duty by 30 Sep 2027 as F-0175 [5]. Strature forecast F-0175: 12% (1 Oct 2026).

    Strature forecast F-0175: 12% (1 Oct 2026) · resolves by 30 Sep 2027 · brief C-006

  • F-01767%Forecasts: Fortress North America: Canada accepts aligning its outside tariffs with US policy as the price of restored access

    A published US-Canada arrangement lifts the Section 338 duties and bans (F-0172), perhaps in return for aligning Canada's outside tariffs (F-0176); Strature forecast F-0176: 7% (1 Oct 2026).

    Strature forecast F-0176: 7% (1 Oct 2026) · resolves by 30 Sep 2027 · brief C-006

  • F-017740%Forecasts: Venezuelan heavy crude displaces Canadian crude in US refineries

    The card links it as a related forecast.

    Strature forecast F-0177: 40% (1 Oct 2026) · resolves by 30 Sep 2027 · brief C-006

  • F-01782%Forecasts: US military action against Canada - the 'extreme tail risk' the Prime Minister says Canada has prepared for

    The card links it as a related forecast.

    Strature forecast F-0178: 2% (1 Oct 2026) · resolves by 30 Sep 2027 · brief C-006

  • F-021112%Forecasts: An association track opens

    The card links it as a related forecast.

    Strature forecast F-0211: 12% (4 Oct 2026) · resolves by 31 Dec 2026 · brief Q-027

  • F-02128%Forecasts: The full package, and the EU share holds above 2025

    The card links it as a related forecast.

    Strature forecast F-0212: 8% (4 Oct 2026) · resolves by 31 Dec 2026 · brief Q-027

  • F-021347%Forecasts: A partial package, and the EU share holds above 2025

    The card links it as a related forecast.

    Strature forecast F-0213: 47% (4 Oct 2026) · resolves by 31 Dec 2026 · brief Q-027

  • F-021418.3%Forecasts: A package (full or partial), but the EU share falls back

    The card links it as a related forecast.

    Strature forecast F-0214: 18.3% (4 Oct 2026) · resolves by 31 Dec 2026 · brief Q-027

  • F-021512.9%Forecasts: The summit delivers none of it

    The card links it as a related forecast.

    Strature forecast F-0215: 12.9% (4 Oct 2026) · resolves by 31 Dec 2026 · brief Q-027

  • F-02161.8%Forecasts: All other outcomes

    The card links it as a related forecast.

    Strature forecast F-0216: 1.8% (4 Oct 2026) · resolves by 31 Dec 2026 · brief Q-027

  • F-015116%Forecasts: a build with a government term

    The card links it as a related forecast.

    Strature forecast F-0151: 16% (28 Sep 2026) · resolves by 31 Oct 2027 · brief Q-021

  • F-015227%Forecasts: a build on private contracts only

    The card links it as a related forecast.

    Strature forecast F-0152: 27% (28 Sep 2026) · resolves by 31 Oct 2027 · brief Q-021

  • F-015316%Forecasts: airport terms published, no build

    The card links it as a related forecast.

    Strature forecast F-0153: 16% (28 Sep 2026) · resolves by 31 Oct 2027 · brief Q-021

  • F-015414%Forecasts: a fast-track listing only

    The card links it as a related forecast.

    Strature forecast F-0154: 14% (28 Sep 2026) · resolves by 31 Oct 2027 · brief Q-021

  • F-015527%Forecasts: a standstill

    The card links it as a related forecast.

    Strature forecast F-0155: 27% (28 Sep 2026) · resolves by 31 Oct 2027 · brief Q-021

A forecast is a probability on a dated question. The Likelihood score above is a separate judgement and is never turned into a percentage.

The forecast register lists every forecast and how it is scored.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 4 Nov 2026 First trade data on who pays the Section 338 duty (Q-022) [2] Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

  2. 5 Nov 2026 Canada tables Budget 2026 [26] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  3. 8 Dec 2026 Trade data confirming the Q-022 reading [2] Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

  4. 31 Dec 2026 Q-022 resolves: the 50% duty ends, eases or lasts [2] Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

  5. 31 Dec 2026 Mexico's and USTR's target to close the review or reach first arrangements [34] Tentative · Outside event

    Remind me

  6. 1 Jan 2027 Section 232: upholstered wood furniture to 30%, cabinets and vanities to 50%, unless a country deal intervenes [22] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  7. 1 Jan 2027 50% on Canadian cars, trucks, parts and steel threatened from this date (US President, 24 Aug 2026) [49] Tentative · Outside event

    Remind me

  8. 1 Jan 2027 Possible 15% Section 232 duty on refined copper [21] Tentative · Outside event

    Remind me

  9. 12 Jan 2027 Comments due for the 2027 CUSMA joint review [11] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  10. Jul 2027 2027 annual joint review (no date set) [11] Tentative · Outside event
  11. 30 Sep 2027 Strature C-006 forecasts resolve [5] Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

  12. 31 Dec 2027 Annex I-C metal-derivative rate schedule ends [17] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · WORLD · strature.net

The other side

Annual reviews keep Canada and Mexico at the table [11], and a wall that holds still makes the cost of diversifying easier to calculate (Strature's view). Canada already sells C$254.1bn a year outside the US [36], and EUR 2,287.9m of CETA-eligible goods entered the EU in 2025 without claiming the preference [4], a gain that needs no new treaty. Mexico is gaining car sales in Canada [39]. Proclamation 11045 lets approved companies that build US primary aluminium capacity import at half the Section 232 rate [18]; Canadian producers could take part through US projects (Strature's view).

Connected in Strature

Sources

56 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. C-006 (Edition 1.6): US-Canada agreement and tariffs. Strature · 1 Oct 2026 · Think tank · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  2. Q-022: the 50% duty on listed Canadian goods. Strature · 2026-10 · Think tank · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  3. Q-024: exposure by tariff line. Strature · 2026-10 · Think tank · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  4. Q-027: Canada and the EU. Strature · 2026-10 · Think tank · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  5. Forecast register. Strature · 1 Oct 2026 · Think tank · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  6. Proclamation 11048 (Section 338, motor vehicles). Federal Register · 23 Jul 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  7. Proclamation 11056 (temporary suspension). Federal Register · 24 Aug 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  8. Proclamation 11063 (import exclusion, motor vehicles). Federal Register · 14 Sep 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  9. Proclamations 11064 (alcohol) and 11065 (vehicles), scope changes (FR 2026-18838, 2026-18839). Federal Register · 14 Sep 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  10. Ambassador Greer statement on Canada's continued retaliation. USTR · 8 Sep 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  11. Request for public comments, 2027 USMCA joint review (FR 2026-20341). USTR / Federal Register · 5 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  12. USTR Seeks Public Comment on the 2027 Joint Review of USMCA. USTR · 2 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  13. Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump, No. 24-1287. Supreme Court of the United States · 20 Feb 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  14. Executive Order 14389, Ending Certain Tariff Actions. Federal Register · 25 Feb 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  15. Proclamation 11012, Section 122 temporary import surcharge. Federal Register · 25 Feb 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  16. Proclamation 11021 (aluminium, steel, copper). Federal Register · 9 Apr 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  17. Proclamation 11032 (aluminium, steel, copper regimes). Federal Register · 4 Jun 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  18. Proclamation 11045 (aluminium onshoring rate). Federal Register · 23 Jul 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  19. Proclamation 10908 (automobiles and parts). Federal Register · 3 Apr 2025 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  20. Proclamation 10984 (medium and heavy trucks, buses). Federal Register · 22 Oct 2025 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  21. Proclamation 10962 (copper). Federal Register · 5 Aug 2025 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  22. Proclamation 11000 (timber, lumber and derivatives). Federal Register · 9 Jan 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  23. Softwood Lumber From Canada: Final Results of AD Administrative Review, 2024. US Department of Commerce · 19 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  24. Softwood Lumber From Canada: Final Results of CVD Administrative Review, 2024. US Department of Commerce · 19 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  25. Canada announces targeted countermeasures and support in response to U.S. tariffs. Department of Finance Canada · 25 Aug 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  26. Government of Canada to release Budget 2026 on November 5, 2026. Department of Finance Canada · 20 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  27. Minister LeBlanc chairs Advisory Committee on Canada-U.S. Economic Relations. Global Affairs Canada · 22 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  28. Media Accreditation for the Canada-EU Summit. Global Affairs Canada · 2 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  29. Canada's response to U.S. tariffs (archived). Department of Finance Canada · 19 Jun 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  30. Tracking U.S.-Mexico Talks Ahead of the USMCA Review. AS/COA · 30 Jul 2026 · Think tank · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  31. Mexico, US Set Fourth Round of USMCA Review Talks for September. Mexico Business News · 27 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  32. Ebrard se reúne con el representante comercial de EE. UU.. Secretaría de Economía (Mexico) · 1 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  33. Mensaje a medios del secretario Ebrard ante las comisiones del T-MEC. Secretaría de Economía (Mexico) · 20 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  34. How USMCA compliance cushioned the 2025 tariff shock. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas · 4 Aug 2026 · Official · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  35. Canadian International Merchandise Trade 2025 and table 12-10-0011-01 (Strature library). Statistics Canada · 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 6 Oct 2026
  36. Highlights of Canada's merchandise trade performance, 2025 Update. Global Affairs Canada, Office of the Chief Economist · 8 Jun 2026 · Official · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  37. RAIAVL light-vehicle bulletin, September 2026. INEGI · 2026-09 · Official · confidence medium · retrieved 6 Oct 2026
  38. Average US tariff rate, Canada and Mexico (August 2026). USAFacts · 2026 · Think tank · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  39. Amending procedures for US-content submissions, USMCA automobiles (FR 2026-16859). US Department of Commerce, ITA · 19 Aug 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  40. Decreto por el que se reforman diversas fracciones arancelarias de la Tarifa de la LIGIE. Diario Oficial de la Federación (Mexico) · 29 Dec 2025 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  41. Government of Canada announces loan support to Millar Western Forest Products Ltd.. Department of Finance Canada · 27 Jul 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  42. Government of Canada acts to protect Canadian softwood lumber jobs, announces support to lumber company (Arbec). Department of Finance Canada · 28 Jul 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  43. Government of Canada commits financial support to Conifex Timber Inc.. Department of Finance Canada · 18 Sep 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  44. BIS guidance to CBP on US content under clause (2)(D) of Proclamation 11032 (FR 2026-20938). US Department of Commerce, BIS · 14 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  45. Trump threatens 50% tariffs on all Canadian cars, auto parts and steel. The National News Desk (WJLA) · 24 Aug 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  46. Fourteen economies join the US in a joint ministerial statement on global excess capacity. USTR · 7 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  47. Mexico-US trade deal progress halts over steel tariffs (Bloomberg relay). SteelOrbis · 23 Oct 2026 · News · confidence low · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  48. Ebrard reporta avances para reducir aranceles de Estados Unidos a México. La Crónica de Hoy · 23 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  49. Canadian international merchandise trade, August 2026. Statistics Canada · 6 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  50. Proclamations 11061 (alcohol) and 11062 (dairy) import bans (FR 2026-18835, 2026-18836); FR presidential documents 10 Sep-22 Oct 2026. Federal Register · 14 Sep 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  51. Memorandum of 16 Sep 2026, Restoring Reciprocity in Government Procurement (FR 2026-19336). Federal Register · 21 Sep 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  52. Prime Minister Carney delivers remarks on Canada-U.S. trade negotiations. Prime Minister of Canada · 22 Aug 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 27 Oct 2026
  53. Liberty Justice Center Sues Over Trump's Revival of 1930 Tariff Law, Citing Harm to American Businesses. Liberty Justice Center · 20 Oct 2026 · Think tank · confidence medium · retrieved 27 Oct 2026
  54. New Jersey food importer files lawsuit challenging Trump's 50% tariffs on Canadian goods. Associated Press via WCAX · 20 Oct 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 27 Oct 2026
  55. Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Further Modifies Canadian Products Subject to Tariffs Under Section 338. The White House · 23 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  56. President Trump Issues Order Further Modifying Section 338 Duties on Goods From Canada. International Trade Insights · 26 Oct 2026 · Commentary · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026

Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · version 3 · last change: reviewed · All risks