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World risk · Trade, tariffs and sanctions · US trade & foreign policy

The US puts a tariff on Danish goods over Greenland

The test Between 28 Oct 2026 and 27 Oct 2027, the US puts in force an added duty of at least 10% on all or most goods from Denmark that does not apply to the EU as a whole, with Greenland or the Arctic named by the US government as a reason.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
3Low steady this month
Impact
3Low steady this month
Breadth4
Depth1
Duration4
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Impact 4 to 3.
  2. No 2026 Federal Register trade notice names Greenland [11]
  3. President's 14 Oct post on exploration; Danish Foreign Ministry says extraction rules unchanged [7]
  4. Agreement announced 18 Sep, signed 22 Sep 2026 at the UN General Assembly (signing per [7]): Pituffik expansion, Narsarsuaq and Mestersvig, investment screening, no end date [6]

Why it matters

In January 2026 the US President threatened a 10% tariff on Denmark and seven other allies from 1 February, rising to 25% in June, over Greenland, then dropped it on 21 January. The US, Denmark and Greenland signed a defence agreement on 22 Sep 2026. On 14 Oct 2026 the President called Greenland 'our new and beautiful Greenland', and Copenhagen pushed back on resource rules the same day.

Why Likelihood 3 Pushes: the President's restated aim in July and on 14 Oct; a one-country Section 301 case exists (Germany). Brakes: the signed 22 Sep agreement; IEEPA duties ended so a duty needs a months-long case; the January threat was dropped within days.

Why Impact 3 Threshold case: a 10% added duty on most Danish goods, Section 232 medicines left out.

The other facts on file (6)
  • 10% tariff threatened on Denmark, the UK and others from February, 25% from June; withdrawn 21 Jan 2026 after a framework with NATO's Secretary General [1] (21 Jan 2026)
  • Executive Order 14389 ended IEEPA duties 'in light of recent events' [3] (20 Feb 2026)
  • Section 301 forced-labour duty: most EU goods pay 10% in total from 24 Jul 2026 [4] (28 Jul 2026)
  • USTR opened a Section 301 case on Germany alone over medicine prices on 18 Jun 2026 (notice published 24 Jun) [5] (18 Jun 2026)
  • Danish border-crossing goods exports to the US DKK 71.28bn in 2025, 7.3% of DKK 982.32bn; medicines (SITC 54) DKK 17.46bn of it [8] (2025)
  • 75% of Danish goods exports to the US did not cross the Danish border in 2024 [9] (2024)

Where it sits

11. The US puts a tariff on Danish goods over Greenland: Low impact · unlikely1 · Low impact · unlikelyOttawaMexico CityCANADAMEXICOUNITED STATESPACIFIC OCEANATLANTIC OCEANGULF OF MEXICO01000 kmat 40°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
11. The US puts a tariff on Danish goods over Greenland: Low impact · unlikelyWashingtonCANADAMEXICOUNITED STATESGULF OF MEXICO0500 kmat 40°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

If

Between 28 Oct 2026 and 27 Oct 2027, the US puts in force an added duty of at least 10% on all or most goods from Denmark that does not apply to the EU as a whole, with Greenland or the Arctic named by the US government as a reason.

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss.
  2. Danish exportersA further 10% on the DKK 53.8bn of non-medicine goods [8] would cost about DKK 5.4bn a year (Strature's calculation).
  3. InvestmentMore output would move into US plants; 75% of Danish goods exports to the US already do not cross the border [9].
  4. NATO and the EUA tariff on one member over an ally's territory would test the EU's common trade policy; in January European politicians moved to suspend the proposed EU-US trade deal (low confidence) [2].

Sectors 2

  • Agriculture and food
  • Ports and logistics

Countries 3

Who is exposed

Countries
Denmark
Sectors
Agriculture and food, Ports and logistics

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Deal holds

    Bases go ahead and resource talk stays words.

  2. S2

    Pressure on resources

    Washington presses Nuuk on drilling and mining; Copenhagen holds the line without tariffs.

  3. S3

    Tariff returns

    USTR opens a case on Denmark and duties follow.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1A joint plan for the new defence areas
S2Greenland's ruling on the pre-2021 oil permits
S3A Federal Register notice naming Denmark or Greenland

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 2027 Planned east Greenland test well (company plan) [7] Tentative · Outside event
  2. 27 Oct 2027 End of the scored window Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · WORLD · strature.net

The other side

The agreement fixes the US role in Greenland with no end date and reaffirms Danish sovereignty [6]. If it holds, Arctic defence spending and base works could bring orders to Danish and Greenlandic builders and suppliers (Strature's view).

Connected in Strature

Sources

10 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Trump pauses Greenland tariffs on European countries. NBC News (NBC Washington) · 21 Jan 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  2. Greenland crisis. Wikipedia · Commentary · confidence low · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  3. Ending Certain Tariff Actions (Executive Order 14389). Federal Register · 2026-02-20 (signed; published 2026-02-25) · Official · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  4. Notice of Actions in Section 301 Investigations... Forced Labor (2026-15181). USTR, Federal Register · 28 Jul 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  5. Initiation of Section 301 Investigation: Germany's Persistent Underpayment for Innovative Pharmaceutical Products. USTR, Federal Register · 24 Jun 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  6. The new US-Denmark-Greenland agreement. European Parliamentary Research Service · 12 Oct 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  7. Denmark pushes back as Trump touts Greenland oil and mineral deals. Al Jazeera · 14 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  8. SITC2R4: trade in goods by SITC and country. Statistics Denmark · 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  9. Omfattende danske handels- og investeringsrelationer med USA. Statistics Denmark · 10 Mar 2025 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  10. Federal Register API: documents with the term greenland from 1 Jan 2026. Federal Register · 28 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026

Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: Impact 4 to 3 · All risks