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World risk · Energy and resources · Russia, Ukraine & NATO

Hungary ends the Russian contract for the Paks II nuclear project

The test Between 28 Oct 2026 and 27 Oct 2027, the Hungarian government gives formal notice to terminate the Paks II engineering and construction contract with its Russian state contractor, or announces a government decision to replace that contractor.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
4Elevated steady this month
Impact
6Elevated steady this month
Breadth4
Depth3
Duration9
Hard to substitute7
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Impact 5 to 6.
  2. Unit 6 pit dug to 23 m; nearly 70% of the building foundations on the Unit 5 nuclear island slab done; comprehensive review under way [6]
  3. Likhachev: work follows the annual plan; Rosatom does not know the government's position yet [9]
  4. Paks plant running 100-500 MW below full power, per Economica.net (unattributed) [8]
  5. Two sources told Reuters the government is weighing all options including a change of contractor; a source close to it said the expansion is needed but the Russian contractor should not be involved [1]
  6. First estimate EUR 12.5bn; over EUR 2bn spent by first concrete in February 2026; EUR 1.1bn paid to the contractor; awarded without tender in 2014, amended five times [1]
Show 3 earlier changes
  1. Existing Paks units' licences end between 2032 and 2037; 20-year extension under study [1]
  2. Magyar has said ending the agreement is among the options; decision expected by end-2026 [2]
  3. Kapitány: project hugely delayed; review to end at end-2026 or early 2027; units no earlier than about 2034-2035 [9]

Why it matters

Hungary's new government is reviewing the Paks II nuclear expansion, a project of two new units, to be built by Russia's state nuclear firm, first priced at EUR 12.5bn. Two sources told Reuters on 21 Oct 2026 that replacing the Russian contractor is among the options, and the review should end around the turn of the year. Work on site goes on, and dropping the contractor could bring claims of several billion euros, an expert said (low-confidence source).

Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: Reuters' two sources and a source close to the government; the Prime Minister names ending the deal as an option; the EU court annulled the state aid approval; delay to 2034-2035 at the earliest. Brakes: claims of several billion euros; EUR 2bn spent; work under way; no other vendor named; no notice received.

Why Impact 6 Threshold case: a formal notice or government decision to replace the contractor.

The other facts on file (1)
  • EU Court of Justice annulled the Commission's 2017 state aid approval in September 2025 (as reported) [1] (Sep 2025)

Where it sits

11. Hungary ends the Russian contract for the Paks II nuclear project: Elevated impact · possible1 · Elevated impact · possibleMoscowKyivWarsawAUSTRIABULGARIABELARUSCZECH REPUBLICGERMANYESTONIAFINLANDHUNGARYITALYKAZAKHSTANLITHUANIALATVIANORWAYPOLANDROMANIARUSSIASERBIASWEDENUKRAINEUZBEKISTANBLACK SEA0500 kmat 52°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
11. Hungary ends the Russian contract for the Paks II nuclear project: Elevated impact · possibleMoscowKyivAUSTRIABULGARIABELARUSCZECH REPUBLICESTONIAFINLANDHUNGARYLITHUANIALATVIAPOLANDROMANIARUSSIASERBIASWEDENUKRAINE0300 kmat 52°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

If

Between 28 Oct 2026 and 27 Oct 2027, the Hungarian government gives formal notice to terminate the Paks II engineering and construction contract with its Russian state contractor, or announces a government decision to replace that contractor.

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. EnergyA new vendor, licence and finance; new units later than 2034-2035 [3]; Paks I extension carries more weight [1][4].
  3. Budget and legal claimsClaims of several billion euros possible (low-confidence source) [2]; EUR 1.1bn paid may be lost [1].
  4. Russia and the EUHungary ends its largest open project with a Russian state firm; Finland's 2022 exit is still disputed in 2026 [1][2].

Goods 1

  • Electricity

Sectors 3

  • Nuclear power
  • Energy and pipelines
  • Construction

Who is exposed

Countries
Hungary, Russia, Austria, European Union
Sectors
Nuclear power, Energy and pipelines, Construction
Goods
Electricity
Companies
Rosatom, Paks II Ltd.

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Keep and renegotiate

    The review ends with the contract kept under new terms or a slower plan.

  2. S2

    Change of contractor

    The government gives notice and seeks a Western vendor; claims follow.

  3. S3

    Long pause

    No decision; work slows and Paks I life extension takes the lead.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1A sixth contract amendment signed
S2A government decision published after the review, around the turn of 2026
S3A Paks I extension filing with no Paks II decision

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. Nov 2026 Next handover stage to the Hungarian client, per Rosatom [3] Tentative · Outside event
  2. Dec 2026 Government review of Paks II due to end (end of 2026 or early 2027) [9] Tentative · Window
  3. 27 Oct 2027 Scored window ends [1] Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · HUNGARY · strature.net

The other side

A clean break could open the project to European or North American vendors and remove a sanctions risk from Hungary's largest energy build (Strature's view).

Connected in Strature

Sources

7 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Reuters: Hungary could drop Russia's Rosatom from Paks nuclear project. Daily News Hungary (Reuters) · 22 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  2. Hungary could lose EUR billions in compensation if Paks II project is cancelled, expert warns. Daily News Hungary · 20 Oct 2026 · News · confidence low · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  3. Rosatom presses ahead with Paks II despite delays as Hungary reviews nuclear project. Daily News Hungary · 28 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  4. A rezsicsökkentés marad, máshol inkább a piacra bízná az árakat a kormány (Kapitány interview; introduction only). Portfolio · 14 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  5. Soil excavation down to the 23-meter level has been completed. Paks II Ltd. · 27 Oct 2026 · Company · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  6. Centrala de la Cernavodă ar putea fi repornită abia în decembrie; starea de criză din energie se prelungeşte cu încă o lună. Economica.net · 23 Oct 2026 · News · confidence low · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  7. Megszólalt a Roszatom vezetője: a csúszások ellenére folytatják a paksi beruházás munkálatait (MTI). Portfolio · 27 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026

Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: Impact 5 to 6 · All risks