Druzhba oil to Hungary and Slovakia stops again for two weeks or more
The test Between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, crude deliveries through the Druzhba pipeline to Hungary or Slovakia (at Fényeslitke or Budkovce) stop for 14 consecutive days or more, for any cause other than a planned maintenance stop announced in advance.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- All EUR 290m of EU Russian crude imports in Sep 2026 came through Druzhba; Hungary EUR 475m in total (EUR 61m crude), Slovakia EUR 229m crude [4]
Why it matters
Druzhba, the last route for Russian crude into the EU, stopped on 27 January 2026 (by Ukraine's account) and restarted on 23 April after almost three months. It still carried EUR 290m of crude to Hungary and Slovakia in September 2026. Another long stop would hit two refineries and could spill into EU votes on Ukraine and sanctions.
Why Likelihood 4 held back by Hungary's new government and the Croatian route. Likelihood 5 to 4. the base rate is the card's own count, not a split, and no source leans towards a new stop, so 4: drivers in place, brakes holding.
Why Impact 4 Two economies plus Ukraine, Croatia and EU votes; weeks to months.
The other facts on file (8)
- MOL received oil at Fenyeslitke and Budkovce on 23 Apr 2026 after a break of almost three months; flows had stopped at the end of January [1] (23 Apr 2026)
- Hungary blocked a EUR 90bn EU loan to Ukraine and Slovakia conditioned the next sanctions package on the restart; both lifted their blocks [1] (23 Apr 2026)
- MOL contracted seven tankers of non-Russian crude to Croatia; Slovakia approved a 250,000-tonne loan from state reserves [2] (18 Feb 2026)
- Ukraine's foreign ministry said Druzhba transit had been interrupted since 27 Jan 2026 [9] (13 Feb 2026)
- MOL said it could supply about 80% of its landlocked refineries' intake via the Adriatic pipeline, with higher technical risks and logistics costs [10] (7 Nov 2025)
- Flows halted after a strike on the Unecha pumping station on 21 Aug 2025 and resumed on 28 Aug 2025 [3] (28 Aug 2025)
- Peter Magyar won the 12 Apr 2026 election and said Hungary will buy oil and gas in the cheapest and safest way, including from Russia [5] (13 Apr 2026)
- The Commission's proposal to ban Russian oil imports, set for 15 Apr 2026, was taken off the agenda with no new date [6] (25 Mar 2026)
Where it sits
How it spreads
Between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, crude deliveries through the Druzhba pipeline to Hungary or Slovakia (at Fényeslitke or Budkovce) stop for 14 consecutive days or more, for any cause other than a planned maintenance stop announced in advance.
Not under wayChannels 5 on the card
- CanadaNo direct Canadian channel found.
- RefiningMOL's Hungarian and Slovak refineries run on seaborne crude via Croatia and state reserves.
- EU decisionsBudapest and Bratislava used EU votes as leverage in the last stop.
- UkraineThe transit state takes the blame; Kyiv says Russian attacks cause the stops.
- RussiaAbout EUR 290m a month of crude sales at risk, the September 2026 level [4].
Goods 2
Sectors 2
- Energy and pipelines
- Ports and logistics
Countries 6
- Hungary primary
- Slovakia primary
- Russia primary
- Ukraine
- Croatia
- European Union
Who is exposed
- Sectors
- Energy and pipelines, Ports and logistics
- Goods
- Crude oil, Refined fuels
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Steady flow to the end
Druzhba runs until the EU's oil phase-out law, if adopted, ends it.
- S2
Struck again
A strike on the line or a pumping station stops flows for weeks.
- S3
Quiet decline
Hungary and Slovakia buy more crude through Croatia ahead of the EU ban, and a stop matters less.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | a Commission oil phase-out proposal tabled by 30 Jun 2027 |
| S2 | a MOL or Slovak ministry notice of a halt lasting 14 days or more |
| S3 | Druzhba crude below EUR 150m a month in a CREA monthly report |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- 30 Sep 2027 EU ban on Russian pipeline gas under long-term contracts (31 Oct 2027 if storage is short) [8] Declared · Outside event
- 31 Dec 2027 EU target to end all remaining Russian oil imports; no legal act yet [7] Tentative · Outside event
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The other side
Each stop has pushed MOL to test non-Russian crude through Croatia, which lowers the cost of the EU's planned exit from Russian oil (Strature's view); Croatia's port and pipeline gain throughput, and seaborne sellers such as Norway and Kazakhstan gain a market.
Connected in Strature
- Crude oil
- Refined fuels
- Hungary
- Slovakia
- Russia
- European Union
- A veto lets an EU Russia sanctions regime lapse at its renewal date Shares a channel: The last stop led Hungary and Slovakia to block EU votes.
- Russia and Ukraine sign a general ceasefire on the current front line Driven by: Without a ceasefire, energy infrastructure stays a target.
- Ukrainian drones shut a main Russian oil port for a week or more Shares a channel: Both rest on Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil assets.
Sources
10 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- MOL resumes receiving oil from Druzhba after three months, with flows also reaching Slovakia. oEnergetice.cz · 23 Apr 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Hungary's MOL turns to seaborne oil as Druzhba pipeline stalls. Reuters via Baird Maritime · 18 Feb 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Oil flows to Hungary, Slovakia resume via Druzhba pipeline after attack outage. Polskie Radio · 28 Aug 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- September 2026 — Monthly analysis of Russian fossil fuel exports and sanctions. CREA · 16 Oct 2026 · Think tank · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Magyar keeps door open to Russian energy despite EU phase-out plans. Euronews · 13 Apr 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- EC postpones legislative proposal to completely ban Russian oil imports. Energynomics · 25 Mar 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- EU reaches political agreement to permanently end Russian gas imports. Reed Smith · 14 Dec 2025 · Commentary · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- EU to begin phasing out Russian gas on 3 February. Interfax · 2 Feb 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Slovakia reports Druzhba pipeline supply disruption, expects prompt resumption. oEnergetice.cz · 13 Feb 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Hungarian Refiner MOL Says Most Russian Oil Replaceable If Druzhba Pipeline Dries Up. The Moscow Times · 7 Nov 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: reviewed · All risks