Russia halts enriched uranium shipments to the US before the US ban takes full effect
The test Russia, through its government or its state uranium exporter, announces that enriched uranium shipments to US buyers will stop (a ban with no licence exemptions, or a stated halt of licensed shipments), between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 26 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Rosatom capacity 29,133 thousand SWU/yr of a world 68,076 in 2025; Urenco Eunice +700,000 SWU/yr by 2027; Orano +2.5 million by 2030. [7]
Why it matters
Russia still sells enrichment to US reactors under a tight leash: since November 2024 each shipment by Russia's state exporter needs its own licence, and the decree runs to 31 Dec 2027. US waivers for Russian LEU end no later than 1 Jan 2028. Russia supplied 26% of the foreign-origin enrichment bought by US reactor operators in 2025; an early stop would leave US utilities short until Western plants expand.
Why Likelihood 3 Pushes: per-shipment licences, 'no certainty' of more, isolated delays, the US ban ends sales in 2028 anyway. Brakes: licences issued in the normal course, foreign-currency earnings, Russia chose licences over a ban in 2024.
Why Impact 4 Key good SWU. One economy, one key good; about US$283m a year of Russian SWU, under US$1bn; months, as US waivers end by 1 Jan 2028; Western capacity at high cost or delay, Rosatom about 43% of world capacity.
The other facts on file (8)
- Russia announced a temporary restriction on enriched uranium exports to the US on 15 Nov 2024, amending Decree No 313; one-off licences possible. [3] (18 Nov 2024)
- The decree was extended through 31 Dec 2027 by Decree No 1516, enacted 2 Oct 2025; TENEX needs a specific licence per shipment; licences received except for isolated delays; no certainty of more. [4] (6 Aug 2026)
- Centrus filed a third waiver request on 11 Dec 2024 for 2026-2027; well over half its expected LEU deliveries come from TENEX; other sources not sufficient to replace it. [5] (6 May 2026)
- Centrus holds DOE waivers for already-committed US deliveries for 2024-2027; no DOE decision on the third waiver request reported as of the 10-Q of 6 Aug 2026. [4] (6 Aug 2026)
- By 6 Feb 2025 TENEX had received three special licences (Centrus 2024 annual report). [6] (13 Mar 2025)
- Public Law 118-62: waivers end no later than 1 Jan 2028; caps 464,183 kg in 2026 and 459,083 kg in 2027; ban to 31 Dec 2040. [2] (13 May 2024)
- US operators bought 13 million SWU in 2025 at US$108.70 average; 77% foreign origin; Russia 26% of foreign-origin SWU, France 18%, UK 14%, Netherlands 8%. [1] (13 Aug 2026)
- Canada produced 24% of world uranium in 2024 and supplied 33% of uranium bought by US reactors. [8] (27 Feb 2026)
Where it sits
How it spreads
Russia, through its government or its state uranium exporter, announces that enriched uranium shipments to US buyers will stop (a ban with no licence exemptions, or a stated halt of licensed shipments), between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027.
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaCanada mined 24% of the world's uranium in 2024 and supplied 33% of uranium bought by US reactors that year [8]; demand for Western-route uranium and conversion would rise (a gain, not a loss).
- US reactor fuelRussian enrichment sold to US reactors in 2025 was about 2.6 million SWU, worth about US$283m at the 2025 average price (Strature's calculation from [1]: 13 million SWU x 77% foreign x 26% Russian, at US$108.70); utilities would draw down inventories and pay more for Western enrichment (Strature's view).
- CentrusCentrus's filings say well over half of the LEU it expects to deliver comes from TENEX and that other sources are not sufficient to replace it [4][5].
More
Strature gives no view on the company.
- Western enrichmentDemand for Western enrichment capacity, including the expansions at Eunice and in France [7], would rise (Strature's view).
Sectors 1
- Mining and metals
Countries 3
- Russia primary
- United States primary
- Canada
Who is exposed
- Countries
- United States, Russia, France, United Kingdom, Netherlands, Canada
- Sectors
- Energy and pipelines, Mining and metals
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Licences keep flowing
TENEX ships under per-cargo licences until the US waivers end.
- S2
Russia stops first
Moscow ends licences early in a sanctions dispute.
- S3
The US stops first
DOE refuses the 2026-2027 waiver.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | Centrus's next 10-Q reports no new delays |
| S2 | A government decree removing the licence exemption |
| S3 | A DOE decision on Centrus's third waiver request (none reported as of the 6 Aug 2026 10-Q) |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- 31 Dec 2027 Russian decree restricting exports to the US expires unless extended [4] Declared · Outside event
- 1 Jan 2028 US waivers for Russian LEU end, at the latest [2] Declared · Outside event
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The other side
Canada's uranium mines, already the largest foreign supplier to US reactors [8], and Western enrichers in Europe and the US [7] gain if Russian supply ends early. On 1 Jul 2026 a Centrus unit signed a contract with DOE governing a US$900m task order to expand Piketon, Ohio, to commercial-scale HALEU output [4]; HALEU is not a direct substitute for the LEU at stake (Strature's view).
Connected in Strature
- Russia
- United States
- Canada
- The US eases sanctions on Russia's oil majors while the EU keeps its Russia sanctions Shares a channel: Tit-for-tat export controls between Russia and the West.
Sources
8 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Uranium Marketing Annual Report, 2025 data. US Energy Information Administration · 13 Aug 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Prohibiting Russian Uranium Imports Act, Public Law 118-62. US Government Publishing Office · 13 May 2024 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Russia places 'tit-for-tat' ban on US uranium exports. World Nuclear News · 18 Nov 2024 · Industry · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Centrus Energy Corp., Form 10-Q, quarter ended 30 Jun 2026. US SEC EDGAR · 6 Aug 2026 · Company · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Centrus Energy Corp., Form 10-Q, quarter ended 31 Mar 2026. US SEC EDGAR · 6 May 2026 · Company · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Enriched uranium fuels Russia's war machine, but the US still imports it. The Moscow Times · 13 Mar 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Uranium enrichment. World Nuclear Association · 29 Sep 2026 · Industry · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Uranium and nuclear power facts. Natural Resources Canada · 27 Feb 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
Reviewed 26 Oct 2026 · version 2 · last change: reviewed · All risks