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World risk · Finance and markets · Global debt & markets

US growth stalls below 1% for two quarters in a row

The test BEA's advance estimates show US real GDP growth below 1.0% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate in two consecutive quarters, the second advance estimate published between 26 Oct 2026 and 31 Oct 2027.

Not under way · Confidence: low · Reviewed 29 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
3Low steady this month
Impact
6Elevated steady this month
Breadth7
Depth7
Duration6
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Real GDP grew at an annual rate of 3.4% in Q3 2026 (advance estimate). [20]
  2. The Fed kept its range at 3.75-4% on 28 Oct 2026 (10-2) and said economic activity is expanding at a strong pace. [19]
  3. US-reported imports from Canada were US$381.92bn in 2025. [13]
  4. US-reported imports from Japan were US$145.84bn in 2025. [16]
  5. US-reported imports from Germany were US$155.83bn in 2025. [17]
  6. US-reported imports from Mexico were US$534.31bn in 2025. [18]
Show 7 earlier changes
  1. CPI up 3.7% and energy up 20.4% in the year to September 2026. [10]
  2. Payrolls rose 29,000 in September 2026; July revised to -10,000; unemployment 4.2%. [9]
  3. IMF: US growth 2.3% in 2026 and 2027; Canada 1.1% in 2026. [4]
  4. Real GDP grew 2.5% (Q1 2026) and 2.2% (Q2 2026) at annual rates. [1]
  5. Current vintage: 0.1% in Q1 2025, 0.2% in Q4 2025; last two quarters in a row below 1% were Q1-Q2 2022 (-1.0%, 0.6%). [2]
  6. Fed median: real GDP 2.3% in 2026, 2.4% in 2027; funds rate 4.1% at end-2026. [7]
  7. The Fed raised its target range to 3.75-4%, 12-0. [6]

Why it matters

US growth is still solid on official numbers: 2.5% in Q1 2026 and 2.2% in Q2. The IMF and the Fed both see more than 2% in 2026 and 2027. But energy is up 20.4% in a year, the Fed raised rates in September and hiring has slowed sharply. A two-quarter stall would cut demand for Canada, which sells most of its goods to the US.

Why Likelihood 3 Pushes: a rate rise on 16 Sep 2026; payrolls up 29,000 in September. Brakes: IMF; the Fed calls growth solid. No two-quarter stall since 2022.

Why Impact 6 Threshold case about 1.3 points under a 2.3% path for half a year: near US$210bn of output on a US$32.64tn economy; sourced exposure in North America.

The other facts on file (2)
  • The US took 72.5% of Canada's merchandise exports in 2025 (customs basis). [12] (8 Jun 2026)
  • Canada exported 8.6 Bcf/d of gas (C$12.5bn) and 3.9 Mb/d of crude oil (C$126.1bn) to the US in 2025. [14] (27 May 2026)

Where it sits

Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. US growth stalls below 1% for two quarters in a row: Elevated impact · unlikely1 · Elevated impact · unlikelyBab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan StraitUNITED STATESUNITED KINGDOMJAPANNORWAYFRANCEITALYPACIFIC OCEANINDIAN OCEANMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. US growth stalls below 1% for two quarters in a row: Elevated impact · unlikelyBab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalUNITED STATESJAPANFRANCEITALYINDIAN OCEANMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

If

BEA's advance estimates show US real GDP growth below 1.0% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate in two consecutive quarters, the second advance estimate published between 26 Oct 2026 and 31 Oct 2027.

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaThe US took 72.5% of Canada's merchandise exports in 2025 [12]; US imports from Canada US$381.92bn [13]; gas exports to the US 8.6 Bcf/d worth C$12.5bn and crude 3.9 Mb/d worth C$126.1bn [14].
  2. US demandOutput well below the forecast path over half a year (Strature's view).
  3. Markets and the FedA stall with inflation at 3.7% [10] would split the Fed between rates and jobs (Strature's view).
  4. Trade partnersWeaker US demand cuts imports from Canada, Mexico and Asia (Strature's view).

Goods 1

Sectors 2

  • Autos
  • Energy and pipelines

Countries 3

Who is exposed

Countries
Canada, Mexico, China, Japan, Germany
Sectors
Autos, Energy and pipelines, Mining and metals
Goods
Crude oil

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Steady as forecast

    Growth stays near 2%, as the IMF and the Fed project.

  2. S2

    One soft patch

    One quarter below 1%, like Q1 or Q4 2025, then a rebound.

  3. S3

    A stall

    Energy costs and higher rates bite at once; two quarters below 1%.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1Met on 29 Oct: the Q3 advance estimate showed 3.4%; next, the Q4 advance estimate in late January 2027 at 1.5% or more
S2A sub-1% advance estimate followed by monthly payroll gains above 100,000
S3Two weak advance estimates in a row with unemployment rising from 4.2%

No probability is given for the three paths.

Forecasts

Strature forecast linked to this risk

25%F-0174 · Canada falls into recession
Strature forecast F-0174: 25% (1 Oct 2026) · resolves by 31 Dec 2027
050100%

A forecast is a probability on a dated question. The Likelihood score above is a separate judgement and is never turned into a percentage.

The forecast register lists every forecast and how it is scored.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 25 Nov 2026 GDP second estimate, Q3 2026 [3] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  2. 8 Dec 2026 FOMC meeting with projections (8-9 Dec) [8] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  3. 23 Dec 2026 GDP third estimate, Q3 2026 [3] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  4. Jan 2027 GDP advance estimate, Q4 2026 (date to be announced) [3] Tentative · Outside event

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SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · UNITED STATES · strature.net

The other side

A stall would cool energy demand and inflation, which could let rates fall (Strature's view). It would also push Canadian exporters to sell more outside the US.

Connected in Strature

Sources

17 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Gross Domestic Product (Q2 2026, third estimate). US Bureau of Economic Analysis · 30 Sep 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  2. Real GDP, percent change, SAAR (A191RL1Q225SBEA). Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), BEA data · 30 Sep 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  3. Release schedule. US Bureau of Economic Analysis · 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  4. World Economic Outlook, October 2026: real GDP growth (NGDP_RPCH). International Monetary Fund · 2026-10 · International body · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  5. Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 16 Sep 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  6. Summary of Economic Projections, Table 1. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 16 Sep 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  7. Meeting calendars and information. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  8. The Employment Situation, September 2026. US Bureau of Labor Statistics · 2 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  9. Consumer Price Index, September 2026. US Bureau of Labor Statistics · 14 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  10. Highlights of Canada's merchandise trade performance, 2025 Update. Global Affairs Canada, Office of the Chief Economist · 8 Jun 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  11. Trade in Goods with Canada, 2025. US Census Bureau · 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  12. Market Snapshot: Overview of 2025 Canada-U.S. Energy Trade. Canada Energy Regulator · 27 May 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  13. Trade in Goods with Japan, 2025. US Census Bureau · 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  14. Trade in Goods with Germany, 2025. US Census Bureau · 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  15. Trade in Goods with Mexico, 2025. US Census Bureau · 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  16. Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 28 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  17. GDP (Advance Estimate), 3rd Quarter 2026. US Bureau of Economic Analysis · 29 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 29 Oct 2026

Reviewed 29 Oct 2026 · version 2 · last change: reviewed · All risks