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World risk · Regulation and compliance · US trade & foreign policy

US federal agencies shut for a week or more when the stopgap runs out on 11 December

The test Between 12 Dec 2026 and 31 Jan 2027, a lapse in appropriations for agencies funded by the FY2027 stopgap (P.L. 119-103) or by a stopgap that extends it begins and lasts at least seven full days.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
4Elevated steady this month
Impact
4Elevated steady this month
Breadth4
Depth3
Duration3
Hard to substitute5
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Likelihood 5 to 4.
  2. The stopgap covers all 12 regular bills; none of the FY2027 bills enacted; Senate 90-6 on 8 Aug, House 370-48 on 1 Sep. [2]
  3. Government-wide lapse 1 Oct-12 Nov 2025, 42 full days; Dec 2018-Jan 2019 lapse 34 full days. [3]
  4. H.R. 6500 signed 2 Sep 2026 funds federal agencies through 11 Dec 2026. [1]

Why it matters

All US federal agencies run on one stopgap law that ends on 11 Dec 2026. Congress has let funding lapse three times since Oct 2025, and the last government-wide lapse lasted 42 full days. A lapse of a week or more would halt federal statistics, delay federal pay and contract spending, and cost output that is not all recovered.

Why Likelihood 4 Default event with a second stopgap the base case in reporting [8], so 4-5; the seven-day threshold leaves out short lapses, so 4.

Why Impact 4 Threshold case, a seven-day lapse: one national economy; under US$10bn of delayed outlays (estimate from CBO's US$33bn for four weeks); days to weeks; federal data and permits have no substitute.

The other facts on file (3)
  • Partial lapse 31 Jan-2 Feb 2026; DHS lapse from 14 Feb 2026, 76 days for most of DHS, 116 for Border Patrol and ICE. [4] (7 Aug 2026)
  • CBO: a lapse cuts annualized Q4 2025 growth by 1.0-2.0 points; US$7-14bn not recovered; outlays US$33bn lower at four weeks. [6] (29 Oct 2025)
  • BLS did not publish an October 2025 jobs report; October household data not collected. [5] (16 Dec 2025)

Where it sits

11. US federal agencies shut for a week or more when the stopgap runs out on 11 December: Elevated impact · possible1 · Elevated impact · possibleOttawaMexico CityCANADAMEXICOUNITED STATESPACIFIC OCEANATLANTIC OCEANGULF OF MEXICO01000 kmat 40°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
11. US federal agencies shut for a week or more when the stopgap runs out on 11 December: Elevated impact · possibleWashingtonCANADAMEXICOUNITED STATESGULF OF MEXICO0500 kmat 40°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

If

Between 12 Dec 2026 and 31 Jan 2027, a lapse in appropriations for agencies funded by the FY2027 stopgap (P.L. 119-103) or by a stopgap that extends it begins and lasts at least seven full days.

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. Borders and CanadaBorder and approval delays; no sourced Canadian figure.
  2. US data and marketsStatistics releases stop or slip; a month of household survey data was lost in 2025 [5].
  3. Rules and permitsContract spending and pay delayed; permits and grants slow (Strature view).
  4. GrowthDelayed pay and purchases cut output; most made up later.

Sectors 1

  • Banks and insurers

Countries 3

Who is exposed

Countries
United States, Canada, Mexico
Sectors
Banks and insurers

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    A second stopgap

    Congress passes another short law before 11 Dec and moves the fight into 2027.

  2. S2

    Packages and a deal

    Some full-year bills pass in packages, the rest on a stopgap.

  3. S3

    A lame-duck lapse

    No law by 11 Dec; agencies shut from 12 Dec into the holidays, as in Dec 2018.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1A stopgap bill on the House floor in the first week of December
S2An agreed FY2027 total announced by the appropriations chairs before 1 Dec
S3No bill passed by either chamber by 9 Dec

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. Nov 2026 Lame-duck session: compressed schedule for FY2027 bills [7] Tentative · Outside event
  2. 11 Dec 2026 Stopgap funding ends [1] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  3. 12 Dec 2026 Funding gap begins without new law [2] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  4. 31 Jan 2027 End of this card's window Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · UNITED STATES · strature.net

The other side

A full-year deal, even a late one, would end the run of stopgaps and lapses since Oct 2025 [3][4] and let agencies plan contracts and permits for a whole year.

Connected in Strature

Sources

8 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Congressional Bill H.R. 6500 Signed into Law. The White House · 2 Sep 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  2. Overview of Continuing Appropriations for FY2027 (R49353). Congressional Research Service · 17 Sep 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  3. Past Government Shutdowns: Key Resources (R41759). Congressional Research Service · 16 Sep 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  4. Lapses in DHS Appropriations: History and Plans (R49105). Congressional Research Service · 7 Aug 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  5. The Employment Situation, November 2025. US Bureau of Labor Statistics · 16 Dec 2025 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  6. A Quantitative Analysis of the Effects of the Government Shutdown on the Economy Under Three Scenarios. Congressional Budget Office · 29 Oct 2025 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  7. Summary of FY27 Continuing Resolution. Association of State and Territorial Health Officials · 2 Sep 2026 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  8. GOP Cardinal Predicts Stopgap to Fund Government Past December. Bloomberg Government · 4 Sep 2026 · News · confidence low · retrieved 25 Oct 2026

Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: reviewed · All risks