Sign in Get in touch
World risk · Finance and markets · Global debt & markets

The US 10-year Treasury yield closes above 5.5%

The test The US Treasury's daily par yield for the 10-year note closes above 5.50% on any trading day between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, as published by the US Department of the Treasury.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 29 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

Follow this riskSign in to follow; one weekly email if you ask for it.

Likelihood
4Elevated steady this month
Impact
5Elevated steady this month
Breadth6
Depth4
Duration5
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. 30-year fixed mortgage 7.24% on 29 Oct 2026, 6.17% a year earlier [9]
  2. 10-year 5.31% on 5 Oct, 5.13% on 21 Oct, 4.96% on 22 Oct, 5.00% on 23 Oct, 5.05% on 28 Oct; 30-year high 5.67% on 7 Oct, 5.33% on 23 Oct, 5.37% on 28 Oct; 2-year 4.69% on 23 Oct, 4.67% on 28 Oct [1]
  3. 28 Oct 2026: FOMC kept the range at 3.75-4%, 10-2 [19]
  4. Canada 10-year 3.90% on 21 Oct and 3.78% on 22 Oct 2026 [10]
  5. Debt held by the public US$32.60tn on 22 Oct 2026 [12]
  6. CPI 3.7% in the year to September; energy 20.4%; gasoline 34.2%; core 2.6% [8]
Show 3 earlier changes
  1. 10-year 4.79% on 1 Sep and 5.29% on 30 Sep 2026 [2]
  2. FOMC raised the range to 3.75-4% on 16 Sep 2026, 12-0 [5]
  3. Median funds rate projection 4.1% at end-2026 and end-2027 [6]

Why it matters

The 10-year yield rose from 4.48% on 1 Jul to 5.31% on 5 Oct 2026, above its June 2007 high, then eased to 5.00% on 23 Oct. It closed at 5.05% on 28 Oct, the day the Fed held its range at 3.75-4%. A close above 5.5% needs another 46 bp (Strature calculation) from more Fed hikes or a new energy shock; it would lift US mortgage rates, already 7.24%, and Canadian yields with them.

Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: up 83 bp from 1 Jul to 5 Oct; the Fed hiked in September and most participants saw another increase by year end [5][7]; the EIA raised its Q4 Brent view by US$14.

Why Impact 5 Key price: the 10-year yield; threshold case one close above 5.50%.

The other facts on file (2)
  • 10-year par yield 4.48% on 1 Jul 2026 and 4.75% on 31 Jul [3] (31 Jul 2026)
  • June 2007 high of the 10-year: 5.26% on 12 Jun 2007 [4] (30 Jun 2007)

Where it sits

Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. The US 10-year Treasury yield closes above 5.5%: Elevated impact · possible1 · Elevated impact · possibleBab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan StraitUNITED STATESUNITED KINGDOMJAPANNORWAYFRANCEITALYPACIFIC OCEANINDIAN OCEANMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. The US 10-year Treasury yield closes above 5.5%: Elevated impact · possibleBab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalUNITED STATESJAPANFRANCEITALYINDIAN OCEANMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

If

The US Treasury's daily par yield for the 10-year note closes above 5.50% on any trading day between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, as published by the US Department of the Treasury.

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaCanadian yields co-move with Treasuries; federal, provincial and mortgage rates rise; the Bank of Canada raised its policy rate to 2.5% on 28 Oct 2026 [18].
  2. US borrowing costsMortgage rates already 7.24% [9]; refinancing of US$32.60tn public debt [12] costs more.
  3. Energy and inflationOil feeds CPI and CPI drives the Fed path that sets yields.
  4. Other marketsStocks, credit and the dollar price off the 10-year (not sized).

Sectors 1

  • Banks and insurers

Countries 2

Who is exposed

Countries
United States, Canada
Sectors
Banks and insurers

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Plateau

    The Fed hikes once more and stops; oil eases as the EIA expects; the 10-year stays between 4.5% and 5.3%.

  2. S2

    Break above 5.5%

    A second energy shock or sticky inflation pushes more hikes; the 10-year passes its 5 Oct high.

  3. S3

    Rally

    Talks on Iran lower oil, inflation falls and the 10-year drops below 4.5%.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1No hike, or a last hike, at the 8-9 Dec FOMC with a flat median path
S2October CPI on 10 Nov above 3.7%
S3A Brent forecast cut in the EIA's 10 Nov outlook

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 3 Nov 2026 US midterm elections [17] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  2. 10 Nov 2026 US CPI for October [8] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  3. 10 Nov 2026 EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook [14] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  4. 9 Dec 2026 FOMC decision with projections (8-9 Dec) [13] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  5. 9 Dec 2026 Bank of Canada rate decision [11] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · UNITED STATES · strature.net

The other side

Higher yields pay savers, pension funds and insurers more on new money. For Canada, the US-Canada 10-year gap was wide on 22 Oct (4.96% against 3.78%) [1][10]; that makes Canadian borrowing relatively cheap for governments and builders (Strature's view).

Connected in Strature

Sources

18 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, October 2026. US Department of the Treasury · 28 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  2. Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, September 2026. US Department of the Treasury · 30 Sep 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  3. Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, July 2026. US Department of the Treasury · 31 Jul 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  4. Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, June 2007. US Department of the Treasury · 2007-06 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  5. Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 16 Sep 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  6. Summary of Economic Projections, September 2026. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 16 Sep 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  7. Minutes of the FOMC, 15-16 September 2026. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 7 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  8. Consumer Price Index, September 2026. US Bureau of Labor Statistics · 14 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  9. Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Freddie Mac · 29 Oct 2026 · Industry · confidence high · retrieved 29 Oct 2026
  10. Canadian bond yields. Bank of Canada · 22 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  11. Key interest rate. Bank of Canada · 2026-10 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  12. Debt to the Penny. US Treasury, Fiscal Data · 22 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  13. Meeting calendars and information. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  14. Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026. US Energy Information Administration · 6 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  15. Oil Market Report, October 2026. International Energy Agency · 14 Oct 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  16. Trump rules out new Iran attack before US midterm elections. France 24 (AFP) · 9 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  17. Bank of Canada raises the policy rate by 25 basis points to 2½%. Bank of Canada · 28 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  18. Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 28 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026

Reviewed 29 Oct 2026 · version 2 · last change: reviewed · All risks