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World risk · Finance and markets · Global debt & markets

The yuan falls back past 6.85 per US dollar

The test The US Federal Reserve's H.10 noon buying rate prints above 6.85 yuan per US dollar on at least one business day between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
3Low steady this month
Impact
4Elevated steady this month
Breadth6
Depth2
Duration4
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. US 10-year yield 5.31% on 5 Oct 2026, 4.96% on 22 Oct. [7]
  2. H.10: 6.6937 yuan per dollar on 13 Oct 2026, 6.6861 on 16 Oct. [1]
  3. Weakest 2025 rate 7.3499 on 9 Apr; weakest 2026 rate 6.9965 on 7 Jan; 6.8409 on 26 Feb 2026 then 6.8579 on 27 Feb; last above 6.85 on 7 Apr 2026 (6.8567); 6.7942 on 1 Jul; 6.7202 on 1 Sep; below 6.80 every day since 9 Jul. [2]
  4. Strature forecast F-0205: 50% (2 Oct 2026), Strature forecast F-0206: 33% (2 Oct 2026), Strature forecast F-0207: 6% (2 Oct 2026), Strature forecast F-0208: 11% (2 Oct 2026). [8]
  5. US-China Board of Trade recommended about US$30bn of non-sensitive trade on each side. [6]
  6. Bessent: truce terms in force to 10 Jan 2027, not 10 Nov 2026. [4]

Why it matters

The yuan has gained for 18 months, from 7.3499 per dollar on 9 Apr 2025 to 6.6861 on 16 Oct 2026. China's central bank now leans against further gains, and the US Treasury watches for that. A fall back past 6.85, about 2.5% weaker, would reopen the currency quarrel as the US-China truce clock runs out on 10 Jan 2027.

Why Likelihood 3 Pushes: truce ends 10 Jan 2027 unless extended; PBOC fix weaker than expected since Dec 2025. Brakes: 18-month rise, H.10 rate below 6.80 every day since 9 Jul and fix 6.7989 on 10 Jul; Treasury watch and designation warning; truce extension and US$30bn Board of Trade list.

Why Impact 4 Threshold case: one print just above 6.85; key price USD/CNY.

The other facts on file (2)
  • PBOC midpoint 6.7989 on 10 Jul 2026, strongest since 10 Feb 2023, 58 pips weaker than the Reuters estimate. [5] (10 Jul 2026)
  • Treasury: PBOC fix weaker than expectations since Dec 2025; net FX purchases US$323bn in 2025 (US$173bn in Q4); China on the Monitoring List with nine other economies; no manipulator; IMF undervaluation 12.1-20.7% in 2025. [3] (Jul 2026)

Where it sits

Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. The yuan falls back past 6.85 per US dollar: Elevated impact · unlikely1 · Elevated impact · unlikelyBab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalTaiwan StraitUNITED STATESUNITED KINGDOMJAPANNORWAYFRANCEITALYPACIFIC OCEANINDIAN OCEANMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. The yuan falls back past 6.85 per US dollar: Elevated impact · unlikelyBab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalUNITED STATESJAPANFRANCEITALYINDIAN OCEANMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

If

The US Federal Reserve's H.10 noon buying rate prints above 6.85 yuan per US dollar on at least one business day between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027.

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaCheaper Chinese goods add price pressure on Canadian makers (Strature's view); no sourced Canadian figure.
  2. US-China trade talksA weaker yuan cuts the dollar price of Chinese goods while the truce is renegotiated; Treasury says it may designate China if it finds intervention.
  3. Asian currenciesMonitoring List economies that compete with China in third markets would be tested (Strature's view).
  4. Capital marketsA turn from an 18-month rise [2] would mark a change in PBOC tolerance, watched through the daily fix.

Sectors 1

  • Banks and insurers

Countries 2

Who is exposed

Countries
China, United States, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, Germany
Sectors
Banks and insurers, Technology, Autos

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Managed strength

    The PBOC keeps a slow rise, the truce rolls over and the rate stays between 6.55 and 6.80.

  2. S2

    A sharp turn

    The truce lapses, tariffs return and the PBOC lets the yuan weaken past 6.85 to cushion exporters.

  3. S3

    A dollar squeeze

    US yields climb back above 5.3% and the dollar rises, dragging the yuan past 6.85 without a policy choice in Beijing.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1A truce extension before 10 Jan 2027
S1Fixes at or below 6.70
S2No extension by 10 Jan 2027
S2Fixes stronger than the market estimate again, as in early 2025
S3The 10-year yield above its 5 Oct 2026 high of 5.31%

No probability is given for the three paths.

Forecasts

Strature forecast linked to this risk

50%F-0205 · Yuan at end-2026: stronger than 6.65
Strature forecast F-0205: 50% (2 Oct 2026) · resolves by 31 Dec 2026
050100%

Where the card uses it Strature key question KQ-24 “Where does the yuan stand against the US dollar at the end of 2026, on the US Federal Reserve's H.10 rate?” resolves on the end-2026 H.10 rate (F-0205 to F-0208). Strature forecast F-0205: 50% (2 Oct 2026);

Other forecasts the card links Open one for what it forecasts and where the card uses it

  • F-020633%Forecasts: Yuan at end-2026: held at 6.65-6.75

    Strature forecast F-0206: 33% (2 Oct 2026); Strature forecast F-0205: 50% (2 Oct 2026), Strature forecast F-0206: 33% (2 Oct 2026), Strature forecast F-0207: 6% (2 Oct 2026), Strature forecast F-0208: 11% (2 Oct 2026).

    Strature forecast F-0206: 33% (2 Oct 2026) · resolves by 31 Dec 2026 · brief C-005

  • F-02076%Forecasts: Yuan at end-2026: weaker than 6.85

    Strature forecast F-0207: 6% (2 Oct 2026); Strature forecast F-0205: 50% (2 Oct 2026), Strature forecast F-0206: 33% (2 Oct 2026), Strature forecast F-0207: 6% (2 Oct 2026), Strature forecast F-0208: 11% (2 Oct 2026).

    Strature forecast F-0207: 6% (2 Oct 2026) · resolves by 31 Dec 2026 · brief C-005

  • F-020811%Forecasts: Yuan at end-2026: all other outcomes

    Strature key question KQ-24 “Where does the yuan stand against the US dollar at the end of 2026, on the US Federal Reserve's H.10 rate?” resolves on the end-2026 H.10 rate (F-0205 to F-0208). Strature forecast F-0208: 11% (2 Oct 2026)

    Strature forecast F-0208: 11% (2 Oct 2026) · resolves by 31 Dec 2026 · brief C-005

A forecast is a probability on a dated question. The Likelihood score above is a separate judgement and is never turned into a percentage.

The forecast register lists every forecast and how it is scored.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 31 Dec 2026 Strature key question KQ-24 “Where does the yuan stand against the US dollar at the end of 2026, on the US Federal Reserve's H.10 rate?” resolves on the end-2026 H.10 rate (F-0205 to F-0208). Strature forecast F-0205: 50% (2 Oct 2026); Strature forecast F-0206: 33% (2 Oct 2026); Strature forecast F-0207: 6% (2 Oct 2026); Strature forecast F-0208: 11% (2 Oct 2026) [8] Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

  2. Jan 2027 Treasury's next foreign-exchange report (January/July pattern of 2026) [3] Tentative · Outside event
  3. 10 Jan 2027 US-China truce terms end unless extended [4] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  4. 25 Oct 2027 Scored window ends Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · WORLD · strature.net

The other side

A steady or stronger yuan raises Chinese buying power for imports, including the US farm goods named in the talks and Canadian canola, pulses and seafood (Strature's view).

Connected in Strature

Sources

8 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. H.10 Foreign Exchange Rates (weekly), release of 19 Oct 2026. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 19 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  2. China / U.S. Foreign Exchange Rate (DEXCHUS), daily, from H.10. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) · 16 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  3. Macroeconomic and Foreign Exchange Policies of Major Trading Partners of the United States, July 2026. US Department of the Treasury · 2026-07 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  4. US, China to extend trade war truce by 2 months. Supply Chain Dive · 24 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  5. Yuan climbs to one-week high as PBOC sets stronger fixing, dollar eases. Reuters (via New Straits Times) · 10 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  6. Ambassador Greer Issues Statement on Announcement of Recommendations from the U.S.-China Board of Trade. Office of the US Trade Representative · 27 Sep 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  7. Market Yield on US Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity (DGS10), from H.15. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) · 22 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  8. China: The Surplus on the Clock (C-005), key question KQ-24 and register rows F-0205 to F-0208. Strature · 2 Oct 2026 · Think tank · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026

Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: reviewed · All risks