Sign in Get in touch
World risk · Finance and markets · Global debt & markets

EU leaders miss the deadline for the 2028-2034 budget

The test By 31 Mar 2027 the European Council has not reached a unanimous agreement on the 2028-2034 Multiannual Financial Framework, meaning conclusions that fix its overall expenditure ceilings.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

Follow this riskSign in to follow; one weekly email if you ask for it.

Likelihood
5Elevated steady this month
Impact
5Elevated steady this month
Breadth5
Depth4
Duration4
Hard to substitute6
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Likelihood 7 to 6; Impact 4 to 5.
  2. Likelihood 6 to 5.
  3. MFF regulation adopted by the Council unanimously after Parliament's consent; last year's ceilings extended if none adopted in time [3]
  4. Costa aims for a political agreement by year-end; talks with all delegations on own resources; new compromise with the missing figures for the late-November summit [11]
  5. Kristersson: too large and too expensive, in no hurry; Jetten: not good enough; Merz: very far apart, solutions possible Nov or Dec; Frieden confident of a deal before Christmas [6]
  6. Costa plans an extraordinary leaders' meeting on 26-27 Nov (draft agenda not confirmed) [5]
Show 4 earlier changes
  1. Friends of Cohesion: cuts bring the MFF to just 1.02% of GNI; Cyprus box remains the basis [7]
  2. Revised negotiating box: EUR 1,622,011m commitments, EUR 1,654,712m payments (2025 prices); EUR 149,296m NGEU repayment [1]
  3. Council annex: Commission proposal EUR 1,763,056m in 2025 prices (EUR 1,984,894m current); box EUR 141bn (8%) lower (Strature's subtraction) [1]
  4. Box heading for cohesion, agriculture and rural prosperity: EUR 914,179m in 2025 prices; Ukraine Reserve up to EUR 88,869m [1]

Why it matters

EU leaders aim to agree the 2028-2034 budget by end-2026 so laws pass in 2027 and money flows from Jan 2028. The Irish box of 10 Oct 2026 sets about EUR 1.62tn in 2025 prices, 8% below the Commission's proposal; Sweden and the Netherlands call it too large and 17 Friends of Cohesion and France call the cuts too deep. Costa plans a new compromise for an extra summit in late November.

Why Likelihood 5 Brakes: Costa's late-November summit and new compromise aimed at a year-end deal, leaders who expect a deal this year, the January 2028 start, one frequent veto gone, and three months of slack past the year-end aim.

Why Impact 5 The EU bloc and Ukraine; no money lost by March 2027, the risk is late 2028 programmes: three months of the EUR 914bn cohesion and agriculture heading is about EUR 33bn (US$37bn); months; unanimity has no other forum, but Article 312 extends last year's ceilings.

The other facts on file (3)
  • Commission proposed almost EUR 2tn, 1.26% of GNI, EUR 409bn Competitiveness Fund, EUR 131bn defence and space [2] (16 Jul 2025)
  • European Council: agreement before end-2026 would allow legislative acts in 2027 and funding without interruption in Jan 2028 [4] (18 Jun 2026)
  • 2021-2027 MFF: proposal 2 May 2018, European Council ceiling 21 Jul 2020, regulation 17 Dec 2020 [8] (Nov 2025)

Where it sits

Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. EU leaders miss the deadline for the 2028-2034 budget: Elevated impact · possible1 · Elevated impact · possibleBab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan StraitUNITED STATESUNITED KINGDOMJAPANNORWAYFRANCEITALYPACIFIC OCEANINDIAN OCEANMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. EU leaders miss the deadline for the 2028-2034 budget: Elevated impact · possibleBab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalTaiwan StraitUNITED STATESJAPANFRANCEITALYINDIAN OCEANMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

If

By 31 Mar 2027 the European Council has not reached a unanimous agreement on the 2028-2034 Multiannual Financial Framework, meaning conclusions that fix its overall expenditure ceilings.

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaNo direct Canadian channel found.
  2. EU programmesLess of 2027 for the sector laws [4]; cohesion and farm programmes, a EUR 914bn heading in 2025 prices [1], may start late in 2028 (Strature's view).
  3. Public financesContributions, rebates and the EUR 149bn NGEU repayment stay open [1][7].
  4. Defence and UkraineThe defence window [2] and a Ukraine Reserve of up to EUR 88.9bn [1] wait with everything else.

Sectors 1

  • Agriculture and food

Who is exposed

Countries
Poland, Spain, Romania, Portugal, Sweden, Netherlands, Ukraine
Sectors
Agriculture and food

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Deal by Christmas

    Leaders settle in November or December, as Merz and Frieden expect and Costa aims.

  2. S2

    Spring deal

    Talks pass into 2027 and close before 31 March.

  3. S3

    Long stall

    No deal by spring; laws run late and the 2027 ceilings are extended into 2028 under Article 312(4).

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1conclusions with figures after the 26-27 Nov 2026 meeting
S2a new box with figures from the next presidency by Feb 2027
S3the June 2027 European Council ends without figures

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 26 Nov 2026 Extraordinary European Council on the MFF, 26-27 Nov (draft agenda not confirmed) [11] Tentative · Outside event

    Remind me

  2. 31 Dec 2026 European Council's aim for MFF agreement [4] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  3. 31 Mar 2027 This card's deadline for a European Council MFF agreement (Strature's, not an official date) [4] Tentative · Strature date

    Remind me

  4. 1 Jan 2028 New MFF due to start [1] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · EUROPEAN UNION · strature.net

The other side

A slower deal gives net payers room to cut waste and the next presidency time to settle new own resources [1]; Article 312(4) keeps money flowing at last year's ceilings if laws run late [3].

Connected in Strature

Sources

9 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) 2028-2034 - Negotiating Box (ST 13922/26). Council of the EU · 10 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  2. Commission proposal for the 2028-2034 Multiannual Financial Framework. European Commission · 16 Jul 2025 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  3. Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, Article 312. legislation.gov.uk · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  4. European Council conclusions on the next multiannual financial framework and other items (June 2026). Press Club Brussels · 2026-06 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  5. 2028-2034 Budget: plans for an extraordinary summit of leaders on 26 and 27 November. Eunews · 13 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  6. 2028-2034 budget: EU leaders divided as some suggest a deal may not come until 2027. Eunews · 15 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  7. Spain hosts a meeting of the Friends of Cohesion on the next EU budget. Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Spain · 12 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  8. Multiannual financial framework (fact sheet). European Parliament · 2025-11 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  9. Costa is stepping up work on the multi-year budget: meetings are planned with all the delegations. Eunews · 21 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026

Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: reviewed · All risks