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World risk · Finance and markets · Russia, Ukraine & NATO

Russia raises taxes again, beyond its 2027 budget package, to cover a record deficit

The test Between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, Russia signs into law a federal tax rise (a higher rate or a new tax) that was not in the 2027-2029 budget package sent to the State Duma by 1 Oct 2026, as published on the official legal portal.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
4Elevated rising this month

Likelihood ↑ 1 Oct 2026: the government almost doubled its 2026 deficit forecast, to RUB 7.345tn.

Impact
4Elevated steady this month
Breadth2
Depth3
Duration7
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Bank of Russia held 14.00% on 23 Oct 2026; inflation 6.8% on 19 Oct; fiscal changes may require a policy adjustment [2]
  2. Urals averaged USD 90.7 a barrel in September 2026, up 32% m/m; seaborne crude export earnings fell 15% in September [10]
  3. January-September 2026 oil and gas revenue RUB 5.47tn, down 17.2% y/y; September RUB 452.4bn, down 22% [12]
  4. 2026 deficit forecast RUB 7.345tn (3.2% of GDP) against a planned RUB 3.785tn [1]
  5. 2027 draft: defence RUB 17.1tn; deficit 2.2% of GDP; oil at USD 50 [1]
  6. 34.9% of 2027 spending classified, according to Vyorstka [1]
  7. 2027 package: passive income 13-22%, 35% on C-account dividends, 22% VAT on cross-border online sales, 30% windfall tax on some miners [3]

Why it matters

Russia now expects a record 2026 deficit of RUB 7.345tn, 3.2% of GDP. The 2027-2029 budget in the Duma already carries new taxes. A further round on top of that package within a year is possible, as in July 2024, but not the base case: the budget assumes USD 50 oil (grade not stated) while Urals averaged USD 90.7 in September (CREA).

Why Likelihood 4 Brakes: the new package, the USD 50 oil assumption well below Urals, an easing revenue fall, more borrowing, a growing National Wealth Fund.

Why Impact 4 One country; a round smaller than 2024's RUB 1.6tn, put at USD 3-10bn (estimate); tax laws last years; firms adjust at a cost.

The other facts on file (2)
  • January-April 2026 oil and gas revenue RUB 2.298tn, down 38.3%; deficit RUB 5.877tn, mainly advance financing [5] (8 May 2026)
  • Profit tax raised from 20% to 25%, signed 12 Jul 2024, about RUB 1.6tn in 2025 [9] (12 Jul 2024)

Where it sits

11. Russia raises taxes again, beyond its 2027 budget package, to cover a record deficit: Elevated impact · possible1 · Elevated impact · possibleMoscowKyivWarsawAUSTRIABULGARIABELARUSCZECH REPUBLICGERMANYESTONIAFINLANDHUNGARYITALYKAZAKHSTANLITHUANIALATVIANORWAYPOLANDROMANIARUSSIASERBIASWEDENUKRAINEUZBEKISTANBLACK SEA0500 kmat 52°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
11. Russia raises taxes again, beyond its 2027 budget package, to cover a record deficit: Elevated impact · possibleMoscowKyivAUSTRIABULGARIABELARUSCZECH REPUBLICESTONIAFINLANDHUNGARYLITHUANIALATVIAPOLANDROMANIARUSSIASERBIASWEDENUKRAINE0300 kmat 52°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

If

Between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, Russia signs into law a federal tax rise (a higher rate or a new tax) that was not in the 2027-2029 budget package sent to the State Duma by 1 Oct 2026, as published on the official legal portal.

Not under way

Channels 5 on the card

  1. CanadaNo direct channel.
  2. Russian firms and saversA new rise lands on profits, dividends or consumption after two rounds since 2024 [8][9].
  3. Inflation and ratesA VAT-type rise lifts prices; the Bank of Russia has said fiscal changes may move its rate path [2].
  4. The war budgetMore tax revenue lets defence spending of RUB 17.1tn hold [1].
  5. Commodity exportersThe 2027 package already taxes mining and metals windfalls [3]; a further rise could reach oil, metals or fertiliser exporters (Strature's view).

Goods 1

Sectors 3

  • Banks and insurers
  • Mining and metals
  • Energy and pipelines

Countries 1

Who is exposed

Countries
Russia
Sectors
Banks and insurers, Mining and metals, Energy and pipelines
Goods
Crude oil

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    The package is enough

    The Duma passes the package; oil above the budget's USD 50 [1] fills the gap.

  2. S2

    A mid-year tax round

    Oil revenue falls short and the government adds a tax rise in spring or summer 2027.

  3. S3

    Cuts outside defence

    The government freezes civilian spending instead of raising taxes.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1Finance Ministry January-March 2027 data show a deficit below the year's plan
S2a Finance Ministry tax bill outside the budget cycle by 30 Jun 2027
S3a budget amendment cutting non-defence lines by 30 Jun 2027

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 18 Dec 2026 Bank of Russia key rate meeting [2] Declared · Outside event

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SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · RUSSIA · strature.net

The other side

Higher taxes at home reduce Russia's need to sell oil at any price, and a tighter budget raises the cost of the war, which may strengthen the case for talks (Strature's view).

Connected in Strature

Sources

8 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Government submits 3-year budget to State Duma as 2026 deficit set to reach USD 88bln. The Moscow Times · 1 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  2. Key rate decision, 23 October 2026. Bank of Russia · 23 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  3. Finance Ministry unveils 2027 budget draft with fresh tax hikes to fund war deficit. The Moscow Times · 24 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  4. Russian federal budget deficit 5.877 trillion rubles or 2.5% of GDP in Jan-April (MinFin). Interfax · 8 May 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  5. State Duma passes 2026-28 budget and tax increase bills. The Moscow Times · 20 Nov 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  6. Russian corporate tax to be increased to 25% from 2025. TASS · 12 Jul 2024 · News · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  7. September 2026: monthly analysis of Russian fossil fuel exports and sanctions. Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air · 16 Oct 2026 · Think tank · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  8. Russia's oil and gas revenues dropped by 22% in September despite rising oil prices. Ukrainska Pravda · 5 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026

Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: reviewed · All risks