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World risk · Geopolitics and conflict · US trade & foreign policy

Congress blocks or conditions the F-35 sale to Saudi Arabia

The test Between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, Congress enacts a law (a joint resolution, or a provision in a defence or spending act) that blocks the Saudi F-35 sale or attaches conditions that delay its letter of offer, contract or deliveries.

Not under way · Confidence: low · Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
3Low steady this month
Impact
4Elevated steady this month
Breadth4
Depth4
Duration5
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Congress may block a sale to a non-NATO, non-listed country by enacting a joint resolution within 30 calendar days of certification [1]
  2. Certifications for Middle East buyers other than Israel must find the sale will not adversely affect Israel's qualitative military edge [1]
  3. S.J.Res.216, introduced by Sen. Markey on 16 Sep 2026, seeks to block a separate Saudi sale of JDAMs and 2,000-pound bombs; no F-35 resolution named [10]
  4. The State Department approved a possible sale of 48 F-35A jets and 49 F135 engines to Saudi Arabia, estimated at US$24.3bn, on 17 Sep 2026 [2]
  5. The State Department notified Congress; Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi opposed the sale [8]
  6. No Saudi delivery date is given; Israel's 25 extra F-35Is start delivery in 2028 [2]
Show 2 earlier changes
  1. A US intelligence brief circulated in Congress warns the sale could expose F-35 technology to China; sites should be open only to US and Saudi officers and contractors [7]
  2. Israel flies 48 F-35s with 52 on order (one report; another gives a planned fleet of 75) [7]

Why it matters

The US cleared a possible sale of 48 F-35A fighters to Saudi Arabia, worth an estimated US$24.3bn, on 17 Sep 2026. Congress had 30 days to pass a joint resolution against it; none against this sale was found. Stopping or conditioning the sale now would take a new law, which needs the President's signature or a two-thirds override, so the risk is low (Strature's view); a new Congress from January 2027 could try.

Why Likelihood 3 Pushes: Israel's edge must be certified by law; an intelligence brief on China access circulates in Congress; a House Intelligence member opposes the sale; a possible change in House control; the 2019 Senate votes; S.J.Res.216 against a separate bomb sale.

Why Impact 4 Threshold case: conditions that delay the contract.

The other facts on file (3)
  • On 18 Nov 2025 the US approved a defence package including future F-35 deliveries and signed a Strategic Defense Agreement with Saudi Arabia [5] (18 Nov 2025)
  • In June 2019 the Senate agreed to consider S.J.Res. 27-48 against arms sales to Saudi Arabia and the UAE [6] (19 Jun 2019)
  • US midterm elections on 3 Nov 2026; Democrats threaten investigations of Gulf technology deals [4] (24 Jul 2026)

Where it sits

11. Congress blocks or conditions the F-35 sale to Saudi Arabia: Elevated impact · unlikely1 · Elevated impact · unlikelyOttawaMexico CityCANADAMEXICOUNITED STATESPACIFIC OCEANATLANTIC OCEANGULF OF MEXICO01000 kmat 40°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
11. Congress blocks or conditions the F-35 sale to Saudi Arabia: Elevated impact · unlikelyWashingtonCANADAMEXICOUNITED STATESGULF OF MEXICO0500 kmat 40°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

If

Between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, Congress enacts a law (a joint resolution, or a provision in a defence or spending act) that blocks the Saudi F-35 sale or attaches conditions that delay its letter of offer, contract or deliveries.

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaCanada is an F-35 partner nation and its firms supply parts (Strature's view); no sourced figure for this sale.
  2. US-Saudi defence tiesA block would test the Strategic Defense Agreement and push Riyadh to other fighters (Strature's view).
  3. US industryAbout US$24.3bn of sales delayed or lost [2][8].
  4. IsraelConditions would likely write Israel's edge into law beyond the current finding (Strature's view).

Sectors 1

  • Defence and aerospace

Countries 4

Who is exposed

Countries
Saudi Arabia, United States, Israel
Sectors
Defence and aerospace

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Sale proceeds

    No law passes; a letter of offer is signed and the contract follows.

  2. S2

    Strings attached

    A defence act requires new reports or certifications on China access or Israel's edge, slowing the contract.

  3. S3

    A hard block

    A new Congress passes a joint resolution and overrides a veto.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1A Defense Department contract notice for Saudi F-35s
S2A Saudi F-35 provision in the FY2027 defence act text
S3A resolution reported out by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in 2027

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 3 Nov 2026 US midterm elections [4] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  2. 3 Jan 2027 New Congress assembles (20th Amendment, unless a law sets another day) [9] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · WORLD · strature.net

The other side

If the sale proceeds, the US locks in a decades-long support relationship with the Saudi air force, and partner-nation suppliers, Canada's among them, gain work on more jets (Strature's view).

Connected in Strature

Sources

9 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. 22 U.S. Code § 2776, Reports and certifications to Congress on military exports. Legal Information Institute, Cornell Law School · current text · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  2. Saudi Arabia's $24.3 billion F-35 deal: what it means for the Middle East. Outlook India · 18 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  3. How US midterm politics could threaten Gulf AI ambitions. Enterprise AM · 24 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  4. Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump solidifies economic and defense partnership with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The White House · 18 Nov 2025 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  5. Congressional Record, Senate, p. S3831. US Government Publishing Office · 19 Jun 2019 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  6. US intelligence repeats warning F-35 sale to Saudis could expose tech to China (report). The Times of Israel · 17 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  7. Trump administration okays sale of F-35s to Saudi Arabia as part of $24.3B military package. The Times of Israel · 18 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  8. Constitution of the United States, Amendment XX, section 2. US National Archives · current text · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  9. Washington Policy Weekly: Department of State approves proposed F-35 sale to Saudi Arabia. Arab Center Washington DC · 21 Sep 2026 · Commentary · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026

Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: reviewed · All risks