Two or more undersea cables or pipes cut in one Baltic or North Sea incident
The test Between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, one incident (one ship, or damage within 48 hours in one sea area) damages two or more undersea cables or pipelines in the Baltic Sea or the North Sea, as stated by a national authority or the operator.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
Follow this riskSign in to follow; one weekly email if you ask for it.
Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Likelihood 5 to 6.
Why it matters
Ships dragging anchors have damaged Baltic cables in each of the last three winters; three incidents in 36 months damaged two or more cables or pipes at once. The worst, on 25 Dec 2024, damaged a power link and four telecoms lines, and Finnish prosecutors blamed the Eagle S; the latest, on 31 Dec 2025, damaged two Finland-Estonia cables under NATO's Baltic Sentry. Traffic reroutes fast, so the cost stays modest unless a power link is hit.
Why Likelihood 6 One came in each of the last three winters, the latest on 31 Dec 2025 under Baltic Sentry. Not 7: no threat on record, intent unproven, patrols and prosecutions may deter.
Why Impact 3 Threshold case two telecoms cables: one region, under US$1bn (repairs in the tens of millions of euros; Estlink 2 claim about EUR 105m), weeks, automatic rerouting.
The other facts on file (8)
- Balticconnector pipeline and at least two telecoms cables damaged, 7-8 Oct 2023 [2] (8 Oct 2023)
- Two fibre cables cut 17-18 Nov 2024; Swedish inquiry found no conclusive evidence of deliberate damage [2] (Apr 2025)
- Estlink 2 and four telecoms lines damaged on 25 Dec 2024; prosecutors blame the Eagle S anchor (charges not tried); Estlink 2 out about six months; claims about EUR 105m [3] (27 Aug 2026)
- Helsinki Court of Appeal: Finland has jurisdiction over Eagle S officers; not final; the deadline to seek leave to appeal to the Supreme Court passed on 26 Oct 2026; whether leave was sought is not yet reported [3] (27 Aug 2026)
- 31 Dec 2025: Elisa's Helsinki-Tallinn cable and a second Finland-Estonia cable operated by Arelion damaged, Estonia's justice ministry said; Fitburg seized [9] (31 Dec 2025)
- Fitburg released 12 Jan 2026; one crew member remanded [5] (12 Jan 2026)
- Fitburg captain and bosun charged June 2026; charges not tried; no hearing date [3] (27 Aug 2026)
- Only one malign damage incident detected in 2025 under Baltic Sentry [6] (14 Apr 2026)
Where it sits
How it spreads
Between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, one incident (one ship, or damage within 48 hours in one sea area) damages two or more undersea cables or pipelines in the Baltic Sea or the North Sea, as stated by a national authority or the operator.
Not under wayChannels 5 on the card
- CanadaCanadian ships patrol the Baltic under NATO; no economic loss channel.
- Telecoms and dataTraffic reroutes; several cuts at once reduce spare routes.
- PowerA power link cut removes import capacity for months.
- Security and lawTests whether coastal states can prosecute in international waters.
- ShippingMore boardings and inspections of Russia-linked ships.
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Single cuts, fast repairs
One or two single-cable incidents in winter; traffic reroutes.
- S2
A multi-cable winter
One ship damages a power link and telecoms lines, as in 2024.
- S3
Deterrence holds
Prosecutions and patrols keep incidents rare.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | any new seizure between 1 Nov 2026 and 28 Feb 2027 |
| S2 | an anchor drag reported near Estlink, Balticconnector or C-Lion1 routes by 28 Feb 2027 |
| S3 | the Eagle S trial on its merits in Helsinki, with no multi-cable incident by 31 Mar 2027 |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- Nov 2026 Winter window Nov 2026 - Feb 2027 for anchor-drag incidents [2] Tentative · Window
- 2027 Fitburg trial (no date set) [3] Tentative · Outside event
Connected in Strature
- Finland
- Sweden
- Lithuania
- Germany
- Russia
- Canada
- Russian forces confront a NATO boarding of a shadow-fleet tanker in the Baltic Shares a channel: Eagle S was a Russia-linked tanker; Fitburg, which sailed from St Petersburg, was reported to carry sanctioned Russian steel (Euronews, 1 Jan 2026).
- Norway blames a state for damage to a subsea cable or pipeline Shares a channel: The same seabed threat on Norway's shelf, defined as an attribution event.
- Russia's war reaches NATO's eastern flank Driven by: The seabed is one front of Russia's pressure on the flank.
Sources
5 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Timeline of suspected underwater sabotage in Baltic Sea. gCaptain (Reuters) · 4 Jan 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Finland appeals court revives case against Eagle S. The Record · 27 Aug 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Finland releases ship suspected of last month's cable damage. gCaptain (Bloomberg) · 12 Jan 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Idling shadow fleet tankers threaten Baltic security and environment, experts warn. The Moscow Times · 14 Apr 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Authorities investigating damage to undersea telecom cables between Finland and Estonia. Euronews · 31 Dec 2025 · News · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: reviewed · All risks