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Russia and China sign a binding Power of Siberia 2 (Power of Baikal) supply contract with a price

The test Russia and China, through their governments or their state gas companies, announce a signed, binding Power of Siberia 2 gas supply contract that includes price terms, between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027. A contract under the new name, Power of Baikal, counts. The score is for an act of the two states; Strature gives no view on any company.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 26 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
4Elevated steady this month
Impact
5Elevated steady this month
Breadth5
Depth3
Duration9
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Impact 6 to 5.
  2. No contract followed the 31 Aug 2026 Bishkek meeting: on 21 Oct 2026 Novak still spoke of agreements by year end as a hope. [10]
  3. Novak said the pipeline is renamed Power of Baikal, will run along the southern shore of Lake Baikal, and that he hopes the companies reach agreements by the end of the year. [10]
  4. LNG Canada Phase 2 FID raises capacity from 14 to 28 mtpa; partners Shell, PETRONAS, PetroChina, Mitsubishi, KOGAS. [7]

Why it matters

Russia's and China's state gas companies signed a legally binding memorandum on Power of Siberia 2 on 2 Sep 2025: 50 bcm a year for 30 years, with price and start date left open. In July 2026 Asia Times put China's offer at about US$50 per thousand cubic metres against a Russian ask of about US$250. On 21 Oct 2026 Novak said the pipeline, renamed Power of Baikal, could see commercial agreements by the end of the year. A signed contract would tie China to Russian pipeline gas for decades and reduce China's need for new LNG from all sellers, Canada's included.

Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: higher volumes on existing routes, the 31 Aug 2026 Putin-Xi talk on finalising agreements, Novak's end-2026 hope, the Gulf LNG loss.

Why Impact 5 Key price: the contract price per thousand cubic metres. Threshold case a signed contract. One region and one good; about US$2.5-12.5bn a year at US$50-250, midpoint about US$7.5bn; a 30-year contract; LNG sellers reroute at a cost.

The other facts on file (9)
  • Gazprom and CNPC signed a legally binding memorandum for Power of Siberia 2, 50 bcm a year from Yamal; Russian state media reported a 30-year term. [2] (2 Sep 2025)
  • Miller said the launch date and price terms still had to be negotiated. [1] (2 Sep 2025)
  • Power of Siberia 1 to rise from 38 to 44 bcm a year and the Far Eastern route from 10 to 12 bcm. [2] (2 Sep 2025)
  • Beijing reportedly wanted about US$120-130 per thousand cubic metres; Moscow wanted Power of Siberia 1 terms, estimated at US$265-285; cost estimates US$13.6-34bn. [3] (4 Sep 2025)
  • Citing the WSJ, Chinese officials said a deal needed much better terms; the Kremlin says talks continue at the corporate level. [4] (15 Jul 2026)
  • China's reported offer about US$50 against a Russian ask of about US$250 (Asia Times); no timeline for a deal or construction. [5] (17 Jul 2026)
  • Ushakov said on 28 Aug 2026 that Putin and Xi were to discuss Power of Siberia 2, and whether agreements could be finalised, in Bishkek on 31 Aug 2026. [9] (28 Aug 2026)
  • Qatar and UAE LNG supply forecast to fall about 45% (54 bcm) in 2026; JKM averaged US$17.5/MBtu in Q2 2026, up 45%; China's gas demand fell an estimated 4% and LNG imports 12% in March-June 2026. [6] (Jul 2026)
  • LNG Canada shipped more than 100 cargoes in its first year. [8] (30 Jun 2026)

Where it sits

11. Russia and China sign a binding Power of Siberia 2 (Power of Baikal) supply contract with a price: Elevated impact · possible1 · Elevated impact · possibleMoscowKyivWarsawAUSTRIABULGARIABELARUSCZECH REPUBLICGERMANYESTONIAFINLANDHUNGARYITALYKAZAKHSTANLITHUANIALATVIANORWAYPOLANDROMANIARUSSIASERBIASWEDENUKRAINEUZBEKISTANBLACK SEA0500 kmat 52°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
11. Russia and China sign a binding Power of Siberia 2 (Power of Baikal) supply contract with a price: Elevated impact · possibleMoscowKyivAUSTRIABULGARIABELARUSCZECH REPUBLICESTONIAFINLANDHUNGARYLITHUANIALATVIAPOLANDROMANIARUSSIASERBIASWEDENUKRAINE0300 kmat 52°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

If

Russia and China, through their governments or their state gas companies, announce a signed, binding Power of Siberia 2 gas supply contract that includes price terms, between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027. A contract under the new name, Power of Baikal, counts. The score is for an act of the two states; Strature gives no view on any company.

Not under way

Channels 5 on the card

  1. CanadaCapacity at Kitimat is set to double to 28 mtpa [7]; a signed contract would reduce China's need for new LNG from all sellers, Canada's included (Strature's view; no loss figure).
  2. China's gas mix50 bcm a year [2], close to the 54 bcm of Gulf LNG the IEA expects to be lost in 2026 [6], would lock part of China's import growth into pipeline gas (Strature's view).
  3. LNG exportersLess long-run Chinese demand for new LNG contracts from Canada, the US, Qatar and Australia, once the line starts (Strature's view; no start date is set [1]).
  4. Russia's budget and sanctionsA second outlet for Yamal gas lowers the cost of losing EU buyers (Strature's view).
  5. MongoliaTransit route and fees (no figure).

Goods 1

Sectors 1

  • Energy and pipelines

Countries 4

Who is exposed

Countries
Russia, China, Mongolia, Qatar, Australia, United States, Canada
Sectors
Energy and pipelines, Ports and logistics
Goods
LNG

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Stalemate holds

    Talks stay at the corporate level with no price.

  2. S2

    China signs on its terms

    A contract near Russia's domestic price, perhaps for part of the volume.

  3. S3

    Route changes

    Russia explores a Central Asian route that bypasses Mongolia.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1No contract by the end of 2026, the date the Russian side hopes for
S2A Gazprom or CNPC statement naming price terms
S3A Kazakh transit agreement

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 31 Dec 2026 Russian side's hoped date for commercial agreements on Power of Baikal (Novak, 21 Oct 2026) [10] Tentative · Outside event

    Remind me

  2. 25 Oct 2027 Scored window ends Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · WORLD · strature.net

The other side

If China stays out, Canadian, US and Australian LNG sellers keep a larger share of China's long-term demand (Strature's view). If a deal comes, Mongolia gains transit income.

Connected in Strature

Sources

10 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Russia and China sign deal to advance Power of Siberia 2 pipeline. The Moscow Times · 2 Sep 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  2. Russia and China sign 'legally binding' agreement to build major new gas pipeline. Meduza · 2 Sep 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  3. What the Power of Siberia 2 deal really means for Russia and China. The Moscow Times · 4 Sep 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  4. China rejects Russia's price demands for gas deliveries: Power of Siberia 2 stuck in deadlock. IWR Online · 15 Jul 2026 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  5. Power of Siberia 2 deadlock belies Russia-China 'no-limits' pact. Asia Times · 17 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  6. Gas Market Report, Q3-2026: Executive summary. International Energy Agency · 2026-07 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  7. LNG Canada announces Phase 2 final investment decision. LNG Canada · 28 Sep 2026 · Company · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  8. LNG Canada celebrates one year of operations. LNG Canada · 30 Jun 2026 · Company · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  9. Ushakov on the 31 Aug Putin-Xi meeting in Bishkek and Power of Siberia 2 (descriptive title). Interfax · 28 Aug 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  10. Russia, China to reach commercial agreements on Power of Baikal by end-2026 — Novak. TASS · 21 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026

Reviewed 26 Oct 2026 · version 2 · last change: reviewed · All risks