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Strature Notes · N-2026-0002

Trade, tariffs and sanctionsCHNUSASignificance 2 of 3, Notable

China's export-control pause has 25 days to run, with no notice yet

What happened

China's suspension of its October 2025 export controls on rare earths and related goods ends on 10 Nov 20261. No notice extending it had been reported by 14 Oct 2026, a market analysis published that day said3. None was found on the Ministry of Commerce's export-control site to 17 Oct 20268. On 28 Sep 2026 China's Ministry of Commerce said the wider trade arrangement with the United States now runs to 10 Jan 20274. That statement, as reported, does not mention export controls34. China's licensing of seven medium and heavy rare earths, in force since April 2025, was not suspended13.

Why it matters

If the pause lapses, exporters of the covered goods need broader licences again3. Makers of motors, batteries, chips and defence goods outside China buy these inputs. Licences add time and doubt to every order. A short roll would keep the clock running into 2027. A longer settlement would ease planning for buyers.

Background

China suspended the October 2025 controls in November 2025, after the leaders met in Busan on 30 Oct 202516. It separately suspended its ban on exporting gallium, germanium and antimony to the United States, to 27 Nov 202627. The US paused its rule extending export licensing to affiliates of listed firms to 9 Nov 2026 (brief C-005, Exhibit 4). The two leaders are due to meet at APEC in Shenzhen on 18-19 Nov 2026 (C-005).

What it means for our forecasts

Brief C-005 asks whether both November clocks roll forward by 10 Jan 2027. We put "rolled on a short clock" at 63% (F-0191), "settled for longer" at 22% (F-0192), "both lapse" at 8% (F-0193) and all other outcomes at 7% (F-0194), each our estimate, scored when it resolves. A general halt to magnet licences for US or EU buyers is at 4% (F-0210), and a general US tariff rise above the truce level at 10% (F-0209). A missing notice is not yet a signal: the 2025 suspension came on 7 Nov 2025, a week after the Busan meeting16.

No estimate changes with this note. Estimates are our own, sealed when issued, and scored when they resolve.

Coming up

Countries China, United States

Questions KQ-21, KQ-25, KQ-26

Sources

  1. Announcement No. 70 of 2025: decision to suspend MOFCOM and GAC Announcements No. 55, 56, 57 and 58 of 2025 and MOFCOM Announcements No. 61 and 62 of 2025Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs of China · 7 Nov 2025 · read 17 Oct 2026
  2. Announcement No. 72 of 2025: decision to adjust the implementation of MOFCOM Announcement No. 46 of 2024Ministry of Commerce of China · 9 Nov 2025 · read 17 Oct 2026
  3. China's rare earth leverage has an expiration date: November 10FXStreet (analysis, G. Guezout) · 14 Oct 2026 · read 17 Oct 2026
  4. China announces 10 outcomes from latest trade talks with USGlobal Times · 28 Sep 2026 · read 17 Oct 2026
  5. Strature brief C-005, “China: The Surplus on the Clock”, Exhibit 4 and Section 05.3Strature
  6. President Xi Jinping Meets with U.S. President Donald J. Trump in BusanMinistry of Foreign Affairs of China · 30 Oct 2025 · read 17 Oct 2026
  7. Announcement No. 46 of 2024 on strengthening export controls on related dual-use items to the United States (clause 2: gallium, germanium, antimony and superhard materials)Ministry of Commerce of China · 3 Dec 2024 · read 17 Oct 2026
  8. China Export Control Information Network, news and announcements (latest items dated 18 Sep 2026)Ministry of Commerce of China · read 17 Oct 2026

General information, not advice. Strature notes report public events and what they bear on in our published forecasts.

Corrections: send them to corrections@strature.net; we correct and date every change.