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Your exposure · Country · Sub-Saharan Africa

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Creditors in China held 44.4% of DR Congo's public external debt in 2024, US$3.52bn of US$7.92bn. IMF credit is 3.57% of GDP under a 38-month programme. Approved reading

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  • Region Sub-Saharan Africa · West and Central Africa
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Your exposure

The Democratic Republic of the Congo in our readings

The Democratic Republic of the Congo is in 2 of our country readings; High in 2.

  • Sovereign debt High
  • Critical minerals High

Each band as published in its reading, against that reading’s stated lines; the readings are never combined into one band.

Outlook to November 2027

  • Geopolitics and conflict High
  • Trade, tariffs and sanctions High
  • Supply chains and chokepoints Not yet set
  • Energy and resources Not yet set
  • Technology and cyber Not yet set
  • Regulation and compliance Not yet set
  • Finance and markets Elevated
The seven outlooks in full: why, and the index

Seven categories, 12 months ahead. The outlook is our judgement, approved by the Principal. The index measures open data on 0–10; higher means more risk. How they are set

Compare the Democratic Republic of the Congo on the outlook map

Dates for Democratic Republic of the Congo on the risk calendar

Risks that reach the Democratic Republic of the Congo

  • Sovereign debt High

    No forecast in our register is attached to this reading.

Show all 2 risks that reach the Democratic Republic of the Congo
  • Critical minerals High

    No forecast in our register is attached to this reading.

Each forecast is our estimate, scored when it resolves, in the register’s own words.

World risks for the Democratic Republic of the Congo

See the Democratic Republic of the Congo's 5 risks on a chart

Two of the Democratic Republic of the Congo's 5 risks share one score pair: Impact 5, Likelihood 4.

2DR Congo cuts its cobaltexport quota below 87,000 t ayearDR Congo's Bundibugyo Ebolaoutbreak is still not over on30 Jun 20271234567891012345678910LowLowElevatedElevatedHighHighSevereSevereImpactLikelihood

Area is the count.

Solid arc: share under way. Dashed arc: share low confidence.

Tint and lines are the card counts smoothed, each line double the last. They follow the cards; they are not a score.

Every card is in the list below, with its scores.

SourceStrature world-risk cards, approved, as of 11 Nov 2026. Scores are judgements, not probabilities. The two scores are never multiplied.
Exhibit R-5 · DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO · strature.net
Show all 5 world risks for the Democratic Republic of the Congo

All world risks that touch the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Goods and chokepoints

Exhibit S-1 · Supply balance

How much the DR Congo makes, buys and sells, good by good

Consumption = production + imports − exports (± stock change).
Reading the supply balance

Supply balance first, suppliers second.

One card per good, each in its own unit. Goods are never added together.

Each card shows the latest complete period: the newest with consumption and at least one of production, imports and exports on file.

Figures of 1,000 kb/d or more show in million barrels a day (mb/d).

Periods are marketing years, as published.

What to watch

  • Around Dec 2026 (not announced) The fourth ECF review, on the six-month pattern of the first three. Sovereign debt
  • Mar 2028 The 38-month ECF of US$1,729m ends. Sovereign debt
  • Annual Bank of Canada and Bank of England default database update; it last counted US$907m. Sovereign debt
  • Quarterly ARECOMS reviews cobalt quota volumes. Critical minerals
  • Jan 2027 The 2027 quota year starts: 96,600 t in all, subject to quarterly adjustment. Critical minerals
  • Quarterly Cobalt and copper shipping data, as reported by Reuters. Critical minerals

Questions firms in this position often review

  • Which of the risks above reach our own suppliers, customers or assets in the Democratic Republic of the Congo?
  • Which dated items under What to watch fall inside our next planning cycle?

General research, not advice. Request a free pilot

Full analyst view

Open the Democratic Republic of the Congo on the map of brief questions

Country analysis

Questions our briefs address

The questions our published briefs address that touch the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Critical minerals · Strature analysis, not from the brief

Critical minerals: what is at stake for Democratic Republic of the Congo

DR Congo mined 74.2% of the world's cobalt in 2025 (USGS). Since 16 Oct 2025 it has limited exports by quota, set at 96,600 t for 2026.

Theme band High

74.2%

of world cobalt output (2025)

96,600

t cobalt export quota for 2026

50%

of world cobalt reserves (2025)

48,800est.

t cobalt shipped in Q1 2026 (shipping data, reported)

Read the full panel

Risks

  • Cobalt exports were suspended from Feb 2025 to 15 Oct 2025, and quotas have limited them since 16 Oct 2025. About 48,800 t left in Q1 2026, against roughly 123,000 t a year earlier (shipping data, reported). Estimate from press or commentary
  • Cobalt hydroxide prices eased between April and Aug 2026, Fastmarkets reported. ARECOMS, the regulator, told Fastmarkets that a cut in quotas may be considered if the market imbalance persists. Estimate from press or commentary
  • The rules have changed within the quota year: first-half 2026 quotas left unused were forfeited to the state's strategic quota from 1 Jul 2026, and 2027 volumes are subject to quarterly adjustment. Estimate from press or commentary
  • A government order of 29 Jun 2026 bans exports of copper and cobalt concentrates; the mines minister may grant one-year waivers (Reuters, reported). Estimate from press or commentary

Opportunities

  • With 74.2% of world cobalt output and 50.0% of reserves (USGS), DR Congo is the world's largest cobalt producer.
  • The concentrate ban is reported to aim at more processing at home, so more of the value chain would sit in the country. Estimate from press or commentary
  • A US-DR Congo Strategic Partnership Agreement was signed on 4 Dec 2025, and the US DFC said it may seek up to US$1bn for the Dilolo-Sakania rail route. That is a proposal, not committed money.

Uncertainties

  • Reported 2025 shipments (245,700 t, shipping data) exceed the USGS estimate of 2025 output (230,000 t). The two series measure different things and are not reconciled here. Estimate from press or commentary
  • The regulator keeps the right to adjust volumes each quarter and said in Aug 2026 that a cut may be considered; the 2027 base quota of 87,000 t may not hold. Estimate from press or commentary
  • China's October 2025 rare-earth, magnet-technology, battery and graphite-anode export controls are suspended to 10 Nov 2026. Whether they return shapes demand for cobalt processed outside China.

What to watch

  • 10 Nov 2026China's suspension of its October 2025 rare-earth, magnet-technology, battery and graphite-anode export controls ends unless extended.
  • QuarterlyARECOMS reviews cobalt quota volumes.
  • Jan 2027The 2027 quota year starts: 96,600 t in all, subject to quarterly adjustment.
  • QuarterlyCobalt and copper shipping data, as reported by Reuters.

Exposure by channel

Exposure band per channel, with the figure and the published line
ChannelFigureBandPublished line
Gulf producer (battery)Procurement74.2% 2025Share of world production of cobaltHighHigh ≥25% · Medium 10–25% · Low 5–10%, or reserves ≥10%
Partnership financeCapital and financeUS$1bn 2025-12DFC financing proposed for the Dilolo-Sakania railway (copper-cobalt export route), up to US$1bnBelow lineHigh ≥US$5bn, or ≥1% of GDP · Medium US$1–5bn · Low US$0.5–1bn
Industry at stakeSupply chain7.9% of GDP 2025Manufacturing value added, % of GDPBelow lineMedium ≥12% of GDP · Low 8–12% of GDP

Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.

Cobalt: mined and shipped in 2025, export quota for 2026 (tonnes)
Cobalt exports (shipping data): 245,700 metric tons (2025)Cobalt exports (shi…245,700Production of cobalt: 230,000 metric tons (2025e)Production of cobalt230,000Cobalt export quota for 2026 (base quota plus strategic quota): 96,600 metric tons (2026)Cobalt export quota…96,600

Drawn to scale from zero. Source: U.S. Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 Data Release, Cobalt; Reuters via Kitco, 'Congo quarterly copper exports down almost 15% as cobalt rebounds' (14 Apr 2026); IEA Policies database, DRC ARECOMS Decision No. 004/2025: Cobalt Quota System.

Sources cited

Estimates from press or commentary

Our calculations

  • Share of world production of cobalt: 74.2% (= COD production / world production × 100)
  • Share of world reserves of cobalt: 50% (= COD reserves / world reserves × 100)

Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 3 Nov 2026. General research, not advice.

Sovereign debt · Strature analysis, not from the brief

Sovereign debt: what is at stake for Democratic Republic of the Congo

Creditors in China held 44.4% of DR Congo's public external debt in 2024, US$3.52bn of US$7.92bn. IMF credit is 3.57% of GDP under a 38-month programme.

Theme band High

44.4%

of public external debt owed to creditors in China (2024)

3.57%

of GDP: IMF credit outstanding (Nov 2026)

US$348.5m

US$m disbursed after the IMF reviews of 30 Jun 2026

36.6%

of reserves: external public principal due 2026-2028

Read the full panel

Risks

  • Creditors in China held US$3.52bn of US$7.92bn of public external debt in 2024, as the borrower reports it to the World Bank.
  • Financing rests in part on the IMF: credit of SDR 2,400.3m on 2 Nov 2026, with each disbursement tied to a review.
  • External public principal of US$1.87bn falls due in 2026-2028 on the end-2024 schedule, against reserves of US$5.1bn in 2023.

Opportunities

  • The IMF completed its third review on 30 Jun 2026, releasing US$348.5m, and says the public debt outlook remains stable.
  • Debt counted in default fell to US$907m in 2025 from US$2,718m in 2024.
  • Interest took 0.5% of revenue in 2022, and public external debt service was 1.1% of export earnings in 2024.

Uncertainties

  • Reserves are a 2023 figure; a newer one would change the 36.6% ratio.
  • Debt in default is 0.9964% of GDP, just under the 1% line, on a preliminary 2025 figure; on 2024 values it was 3.59%.
  • Borrower-reported figures may miss some Chinese lending; AidData was not read.

What to watch

  • Around Dec 2026 (not announced)The fourth ECF review, on the six-month pattern of the first three.
  • Mar 2028The 38-month ECF of US$1,729m ends.
  • AnnualBank of Canada and Bank of England default database update; it last counted US$907m.

Exposure by channel

Exposure band per channel, with the figure and the published line
ChannelFigureBandPublished line
China creditorDependence44.4% of PPG external debt 2024Share of public external debt owed to ChinaHighHigh ≥33% · Medium 20–33% · Low 10–20%
Imf exposureCapital and finance3.57% of GDP Nov 2026 credit vs GDP 2025IMF credit outstanding, % of GDPMediumHigh ≥5% of GDP · Medium 2–5% of GDP · Low 1–2% of GDP, or <1% of GDP but ≥US$1bn
Refinancing wallCapital and finance36.6% of reserves 2026-2028 vs reserves 2023External public principal due 2026-2028, % of reservesLowHigh ≥100% · Medium 50–100% · Low 25–50%
Default arrearsCapital and finance0.996% of GDP 2025 vs GDP 2025Sovereign debt in default, % of GDP (unrounded)Below lineHigh ≥5% of GDP · Medium 1–5% of GDP · Low <1% of GDP but ≥US$1bn
External debt serviceCapital and finance1.1% of exports 2024Public and publicly guaranteed external debt service, % of exports of goods, services and primary incomeBelow lineHigh ≥21% · Medium 15–21% · Low 10–15%
Interest burdenRevenue0.5% of revenue 2022Interest payments, % of revenue (central government)Below lineHigh ≥30% · Medium 20–30% · Low 10–20%

Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.

Public external debt, all creditors and creditors in China, 2024 (US$bn)
Public and publicly guaranteed external debt outstanding, all creditors: US$7.92bn (2024)2024, outstanding all7.92Public and publicly guaranteed external debt owed to creditors in China: US$3.52bn (2024)2024, owed to in China3.52

Drawn to scale from zero. Source: World Bank, International Debt Statistics (DT.DOD.DPPG.CD, counterpart World); World Bank, International Debt Statistics (DT.DOD.DPPG.CD, counterpart China).

Sources cited

Our calculations

  • Share of public external debt owed to China: 44.4% of PPG external debt (= debt owed to China / PPG external debt × 100)
  • IMF credit outstanding, % of GDP: 3.57% of GDP (= IMF credit (SDR) × US$ per SDR / GDP × 100)
  • External public principal due 2026-2028, % of reserves: 36.6% of reserves (= projected PPG principal 2026-2028 / total reserves × 100)
  • Sovereign debt in default, % of GDP (unrounded): 0.996% of GDP (= debt in default 2025 (US$ m) / GDP 2025 (US$ m, WDI NY.GDP.MKTP.CD unrounded 91,030,531,317))

Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 3 Nov 2026. General research, not advice.

ISO 3166-1 name: Congo, Democratic Republic of the (COD). Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty.

Sources and licences

No figure on this page yet.

Cite this page Strature, “Democratic Republic of the Congo”, Strature GPS, https://strature.net/gps/cod/, 11 Nov 2026.

  • General research, not advice.
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