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World risk · Geopolitics and conflict

DR Congo holds a constitutional referendum

The test Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, DR Congo holds polling day of a national referendum to amend or replace the constitution.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
4Elevated steady this month
Impact
5Elevated steady this month
Breadth4
Depth2
Duration7
Hard to substitute5
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Senator Salomon Kalonda urged senators to reject the text in its second reading (statement published 25 Oct 2026); no Senate date given [3]
  2. The National Assembly re-adopted the revised law on 23 Oct 2026, with the opposition boycotting; it returns to the Senate and then goes for promulgation; no referendum date set [1]

Why it matters

DR Congo's National Assembly re-adopted a law on 23 Oct 2026 that sets the rules for a referendum to amend or replace the constitution; it now returns to the Senate and then to the president for promulgation. The opposition says it could open the way to a third term for President Tshisekedi, whose second term ends in 2028; the government presents the reform as a wider institutional question. No referendum date is set.

Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: the law close to promulgation; the president's stated openness to a third term. Brakes: no date or electoral calendar; the Senate's second reading and calls to reject it; the war in the east; a national dialogue promised with no date or format. Two drivers with blockers holding.

The other facts on file (3)
  • The bill lets the president call a referendum, gives the vote to CENI and allows an enlarged constituent assembly for a new constitution; the Senate sent it to committee with a 72-hour deadline in June 2026 [4] (10 Jun 2026)
  • Parliament passed the law in June 2026; the Constitutional Court found it compatible with reservations in July; on 10 Aug Tshisekedi asked both chambers to reconsider it; protests in Kinshasa (12 Jun) and Goma and Bukavu (28 Jul) [2] (25 Aug 2026)
  • In May 2026 Tshisekedi said he had not sought a third term but would accept one if Congolese wanted it; his second term ends in 2028 [2] (25 Aug 2026)

Where it sits

ANGOLAZAMBIACAMEROONGABONBURUNDI11. DR Congo holds a constitutional referendum: Elevated impact · possible (placed at the country)1 DR Congo holdsa constitutional referendumElevated impact · possibleDR CONGO VOTES ON CONSTITUTION0500 kmat 4°SMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
ANGOLAZAMBIA11. DR Congo holds a constitutional referendum: Elevated impact · possible (placed at the country)1 DR Congo voteson constitutionDR CONGO VOTES ON CONSTITUTION0500 kmat 4°SMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.

If

Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, DR Congo holds polling day of a national referendum to amend or replace the constitution.

Not under way

Channels 3 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. PoliticsA referendum could reopen the term limit before the 2028 election [1][2].
  3. The eastAn activist in AFC/M23-held Goma said a term-extending amendment would not be recognised there [2].

Who is exposed

No figure on file: Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Law promulgated, no vote

    The law enters force but no vote is called within the window.

  2. S2

    Vote called

    The president calls a referendum and CENI sets a date.

  3. S3

    Shelved

    The Senate stalls the text or a national dialogue defers it.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1A promulgation decree with no referendum date
S2A CENI calendar
S3The Senate's second-reading vote

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 3 Nov 2027 End of the scored window [1] Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO · strature.net

The other side

Majority deputies present the re-adoption as normal democratic practice and majority rule (23 Oct 2026) [1], and the government says the reform is a wider institutional question, not a bid to extend the president's term [2].

Connected in Strature

Sources

4 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Congo-Kinshasa: L'Assemblée nationale adopte la loi sur le référendum, l'opposition dénonce un passage en force. allAfrica · 23 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  2. DRC's constitutional battle: The fight over the 2028 vote. Al Jazeera · 25 Aug 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  3. Loi sur le référendum : Salomon Kalonda appelle le Sénat à ne pas ouvrir la boîte de Pandore. Actualite.cd · 26 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  4. Sénat : la proposition de loi sur le référendum en RDC envoyée en commission. Agence Congolaise de Presse · 10 Jun 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026

Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks