DR Congo cuts its cobalt export quota below 87,000 t a year
The test Between 1 Nov 2026 and 1 Nov 2027, DR Congo sets its base cobalt export quota below 87,000 t of contained cobalt a year, or brings back a full export ban.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
Follow this riskSign in to follow; one weekly email if you ask for it.
Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
Why it matters
DR Congo mined about 73% of the world's cobalt in 2025 and now exports it under quotas that replaced a February-October 2025 ban. On 11 Aug 2026 its strategic minerals regulator, ARECOMS, said a quota cut may be considered if the imbalance persists, but not at this stage. A cut would tighten battery supply from a single dominant source.
Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: hydroxide prices falling since April 2026; ARECOMS says a cut may be considered; forfeiture of unused first-half quotas; the quarterly adjustment right. Brakes: no change at this stage; the 2027 base already set at 87,000 t.
Why Impact 6 Threshold case a base cap just under 87,000 t.
The other facts on file (4)
- ARECOMS: a reduction in export quotas may be considered; no change at this stage; 2026 cap 87,000 t (7,250 t a month) plus a discretionary 9,600 t; hydroxide US$26.00-26.25/lb in April, US$22-23/lb on 11 Aug; Q2 allocations not shipped by 5 Jul scrapped, 15,000-20,000 t of annual allowance removed (market participants); hydroxide four times its 20 Feb 2025 level [1] (12 Aug 2026)
- DRC about 73% of world mined cobalt in 2025 (230,000 t of 310,000 t); quotas from October 2025 up to 96,600 t a year in 2026-27 incl. 9,600 t strategic; China leading refiner and consumer; Canada mined about 3,500 t; US metal imports 2021-24 from Norway 26%, Finland 16%, Canada 14%, Japan 14% [2] (Feb 2026)
- ARECOMS: first-half 2026 quotas unused by 30 Jun forfeited to the strategic quota; only shipments declared in customs by 5 Jul qualify; measures from 1 Jul [3] (29 Jun 2026)
- ARECOMS board, 21 Sep 2025: base quota 87,000 t a year for 2026 and 2027 (7,250 t a month), strategic quota up to 9,600 t; right to adjust volumes quarterly in a significant imbalance [4] (22 Sep 2025)
Where it sits
Where this risk sits
Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.
- Low 1–3
- Elevated 4–6
- High 7–8
- Severe 9–10
- Bigger circle: higher Impact
- Solid ring: under way
- Red ring: highest Impact on this map
- Where it starts
- Who it reaches
The risk on this map
- DR Congo cuts its cobalt export quota below 87,000 t a yearImpact 6 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated. · Democratic Republic of the Congo
How it spreads
Between 1 Nov 2026 and 1 Nov 2027, DR Congo sets its base cobalt export quota below 87,000 t of contained cobalt a year, or brings back a full export ban.
Not under wayChannels 3 on the card
Who is exposed
- Countries
- Democratic Republic of the Congo, China, Norway, Finland, Japan, Canada, South Korea, European Union
- Sectors
- Mining and metals, Autos
- Goods
- Cobalt
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Quotas hold
Prices steady and the 87,000 t cap stays.
- S2
Quiet squeeze
More forfeitures cut shipments without a lower cap, as in June 2026.
- S3
Formal cut
Weak prices bring a lower cap for 2027.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | ARECOMS confirms 2027 allocations unchanged |
| S2 | A new forfeiture deadline |
| S3 | Hydroxide below the August 2026 range of US$22-23/lb |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- Jan 2027 Start of the 2027 quota year [4] Declared · Outside event
- 1 Nov 2027 End of the scored window [2] Declared · Strature date
- 31 Dec 2027 Quota system runs to end-2027 [1] Declared · Outside event
Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.
Connected in Strature
- Electric cars and batteries
- China
- Norway
- Finland
- Japan
- Canada
- M23 seizes a town of 100,000+ people it did not hold on 1 Nov 2026 Shares a channel: The same state's mineral exports.
Sources
4 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- DRC may reduce cobalt quota if market needs rebalancing, ARECOMS says: exclusive. Fastmarkets · 12 Aug 2026 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Cobalt. US Geological Survey · 2026-02 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Congo withdraws unused cobalt export quotas (Reuters). Kitco (Reuters wire) · 29 Jun 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Cobalt export quotas: DRC sets limits to rebalance global supply. Fastmarkets · 22 Sep 2025 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks