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World risk · Geopolitics and conflict

Bosnia still has no new state government on 30 Jun 2027

The test By 30 Jun 2027, the state House of Representatives has not confirmed a new Council of Ministers after the 4 Oct 2026 election (judged on that date).

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
4Elevated steady this month
Impact
3Low steady this month
Breadth4
Depth1
Duration4
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Preliminary House seats SDA 9, SNSD 6, SDP 5, HDZ BiH 4; turnout about 42% vs just above 50% in 2022; cantonal assemblies have 30 days after certification to elect the Federation House of Peoples; several months expected (Huskić) [1]
  2. House of Representatives has 42 members, two-thirds from the Federation and one-third from Republika Srpska; official results due no later than 20 Nov 2026 [4]

Why it matters

Bosnia and Herzegovina voted on 4 Oct 2026; preliminary results leave no party above 9 of the 42 seats in the state House of Representatives. Government formation runs through indirect, staged elections, and a think-tank author expects months before the decisive bargaining starts. After the 2022 election the state government was confirmed in early 2023.

Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: a split House, no party above 9 of 42; a staged, indirect formation expected to take months. Brake: the 2022 round took about three to four months. Two drivers with a brake = 4.

The other facts on file (2)
  • Council of Ministers chaired by Borjana Krišto confirmed by the House of Representatives in early 2023 [2] (24 Jan 2023)
  • Plenković and Krišto signed the Southern Interconnection pipeline agreement in Dubrovnik on 28 Apr 2026; Bosnia imports nearly all its gas from Russia [3] (28 Apr 2026)

Where it sits

Exhibit R-1 · Map

Where this risk sits

Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.

Bosnia still has no new state government on 30 Jun 2027. Impact 3 of 10, Low. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated.
  • Low 1–3
  • Elevated 4–6
  • High 7–8
  • Severe 9–10
  • Bigger circle: higher Impact
  • Solid ring: under way
  • Red ring: highest Impact on this map
  • Where it starts
  • Who it reaches

The risk on this map

  1. Bosnia still has no new state government on 30 Jun 2027Impact 3 of 10, Low. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated. · Bosnia and Herzegovina
SourceStrature world-risk cards. Cards reviewed 1 Nov 2026. Map: Natural Earth 1:110m, Equal Earth projection. Country names imply no position on sovereignty.
Exhibit R-1 · BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA · strature.net

How it spreads

If

By 30 Jun 2027, the state House of Representatives has not confirmed a new Council of Ministers after the 4 Oct 2026 election (judged on that date).

Not under way

Channels 3 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. Law-makingA caretaker Council of Ministers keeps business running but new state laws wait (Strature's view).
  3. EU track and gas linkState steps tied to EU funds and the Southern Interconnection would be delayed (Strature's view) [3].

Sectors 1

  • Energy and pipelines

Countries 2

  • Bosnia and Herzegovina primary
  • Croatia

Who is exposed

Countries
Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia
Sectors
Energy and pipelines

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    As in 2022

    A coalition forms within four or five months.

  2. S2

    Long stall

    Bargaining over Federation and state posts drags past mid-2027.

  3. S3

    Partial deal

    Entity governments form but the state level waits.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1The Federation House of Peoples constituted
S2No nominee for chair of the Council of Ministers by March 2027
S3A Federation government appointed with no state nominee

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 20 Nov 2026 Latest date for official election results [4] Tentative · Outside event

    Remind me

  2. 30 Jun 2027 Judging date of this risk [1] Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA · strature.net

The other side

A quick formation would let the state move on the gas link with Croatia, which aims to cut dependence on Russian gas, and on EU-tied laws (Strature's view) [3].

Sources

4 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. General Elections 2026: New Technology, Familiar Outcomes. Friedrich Naumann Foundation · 6 Oct 2026 · Think tank · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  2. House of Representatives confirms new Council of Ministers of BiH. Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina · 24 Jan 2023 · Official · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  3. Croatia, Bosnia sign pipeline deal to reduce dependency on Russia. Associated Press (via WTOP) · 28 Apr 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  4. Bosnia general election 2026 explained in maps and charts. Al Jazeera · 4 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026

Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks