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A major hurricane (Category 3 or above) passes within 50 nautical miles of Jamaica before 1 Nov 2027

The test Between 1 Nov 2026 and 1 Nov 2027, the centre of a hurricane of Category 3 or above (96 kt or more) passes within 50 nautical miles of Jamaica's coast, as recorded in the US National Hurricane Center's best track.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
3Low steady this month
Impact
4Elevated steady this month
Breadth4
Depth1
Duration7
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Damage estimates of US$8.8bn (five lenders, 1 Dec 2025) and US$12.2bn (Wikipedia only) [4]
  2. 2026 season: one hurricane (Isaias, Category 3); no storm reached Jamaica to 30 Oct; El Niño shear cited; season ends 30 Nov [5]
  3. El Niño Advisory; Niño-3.4 +2.1°C; strong to very strong El Niño expected through January-March 2027 [6]

Why it matters

Hurricane Melissa struck Jamaica as a Category 5 in October 2025, the IMF lent about US$415m in January 2026, and public debt rose to a projected 68.6% of GDP with the fiscal rule suspended. A second major hurricane before the debt falls back would strike an economy still rebuilding. The 2026 season, damped by a strong El Niño, brought no storm to Jamaica.

Why Likelihood 3 Pushes: an annual season on a known track; El Niño expected to fade after early 2027. Brakes: El Niño strong in the first months of the window; ENSO for the 2027 peak not sourced.

Why Impact 4 Threshold case: a Category 3 centre up to 50 n mi off the coast.

The other facts on file (5)
  • IMF RFI of about US$415m; real GDP -4.3% in 2025/26; public debt 68.6% of GDP in 2025/26 from 62.4%; temporary suspension of the fiscal rule appropriate (Bo Li) [1] (16 Jan 2026)
  • NHC final report: Melissa a major hurricane, 165 kt peak, 93 direct deaths; updated 19 May 2026 [2] (19 May 2026)
  • Beryl's centre passed 15-20 n mi south of Jamaica on 3 Jul 2024; best track 120 kt (18 UTC 3 Jul) and 115 kt (00 UTC 4 Jul), Category 4, though the text says 90-95 kt; four deaths; US$995m damage and loss [3] (1 May 2025)
  • NHC: Category 5 Melissa made landfall in southwestern Jamaica near New Hope with 185 mph winds [7] (28 Oct 2025)
  • World Bank: Melissa triggered a full US$150m payout of Jamaica's catastrophe bond [8] (7 Nov 2025)

Where it sits

Exhibit R-1 · Map

Where this risk sits

Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.

A major hurricane (Category 3 or above) passes within 50 nautical miles of Jamaica before 1 Nov 2027. Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 3 of 10, Low.
  • Low 1–3
  • Elevated 4–6
  • High 7–8
  • Severe 9–10
  • Bigger circle: higher Impact
  • Solid ring: under way
  • Red ring: highest Impact on this map
  • Where it starts
  • Who it reaches

The risk on this map

  1. A major hurricane (Category 3 or above) passes within 50 nautical miles of Jamaica before 1 Nov 2027Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 3 of 10, Low. · Jamaica
SourceStrature world-risk cards. Cards reviewed 1 Nov 2026. Map: Natural Earth 1:110m, Equal Earth projection. Country names imply no position on sovereignty.
Exhibit R-1 · JAMAICA · strature.net

How it spreads

If

Between 1 Nov 2026 and 1 Nov 2027, the centre of a hurricane of Category 3 or above (96 kt or more) passes within 50 nautical miles of Jamaica's coast, as recorded in the US National Hurricane Center's best track.

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. Public financesA second strike adds to post-Melissa debt while the fiscal rule is suspended [1].
  3. Tourism and miningTourism, bauxite and alumina lose output (values not sourced).
  4. InsuranceCatastrophe bonds and reinsurance for the Caribbean are tested again [8].

Goods 1

Sectors 2

  • Banks and insurers
  • Mining and metals

Countries 3

  • Jamaica primary
  • Haiti
  • Cuba

Who is exposed

Countries
Jamaica, Haiti, Cuba
Sectors
Banks and insurers, Mining and metals
Goods
Aluminium

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Quiet season

    No major hurricane near Jamaica in 2027.

  2. S2

    Near miss

    A storm passes close but below Category 3 at its closest point.

  3. S3

    Second strike

    A major hurricane passes within 50 n mi.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1NOAA's May 2027 Atlantic seasonal outlook
S2An NHC hurricane watch for Jamaica
S3An NHC hurricane warning for Jamaica

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 30 Nov 2026 End of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season (last month inside the window) [5] Declared · Window

    Remind me

  2. 1 Jun 2027 Atlantic hurricane season opens [5] Declared · Window

    Remind me

  3. 1 Nov 2027 End of the scored window [5] Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · JAMAICA · strature.net

The other side

Jamaica's layered disaster finance (a catastrophe bond that paid out, IMF emergency lending) worked after Melissa, and rebuilding to higher standards may reduce losses next time (Strature's view).

Connected in Strature

Sources

8 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. IMF Executive Board Approves a US$415 Million Disbursement to Jamaica to Address the Impact of Hurricane Melissa (PR 26/008). International Monetary Fund · 16 Jan 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  2. Tropical Cyclone Reports, 2025 Atlantic (Melissa, AL132025). NOAA National Hurricane Center · 19 May 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  3. Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Beryl (AL022024). NOAA National Hurricane Center · 1 May 2025 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  4. Hurricane Melissa. Wikipedia · Commentary · confidence low · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  5. 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. Wikipedia · Commentary · confidence low · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  6. ENSO diagnostic discussion. NOAA Climate Prediction Center · 8 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  7. Hurricane Melissa Tropical Cyclone Update: Category 5 Melissa makes landfall in Jamaica. NOAA National Hurricane Center · 28 Oct 2025 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  8. Hurricane Melissa triggers 100% payout of $150 million World Bank catastrophe bond for Jamaica. World Bank · 7 Nov 2025 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026

Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks