A major hurricane (Category 3 or above) passes within 50 nautical miles of the Bahamas before 1 Nov 2027
The test Between 1 Nov 2026 and 1 Nov 2027, the centre of a hurricane of Category 3 or above (96 kt or more) passes within 50 nautical miles of any island of the Bahamas, as recorded in the US National Hurricane Center's best track.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
Why it matters
The Bahamas sit on the main track of Atlantic hurricanes; Hurricane Melissa crossed the southeastern and central islands with 100 mph winds (Category 2 strength) in October 2025. The 2026 season, damped by a strong El Niño, brought no storm to the islands so far. A major hurricane in 2027 would hit tourism and the islands' public finances.
Why Likelihood 3 Pushes: a recurring seasonal hazard on a main track; El Niño expected to fade after early 2027. Brakes: El Niño strong in the first months of the window; ENSO for the 2027 peak not sourced.
Why Impact 4 Threshold case: a Category 3 centre up to 50 n mi from an island.
The other facts on file (4)
- PM Philip Davis called the 12 May 2026 election early, ahead of the hurricane season; the PLP won [1] (13 May 2026)
- NHC 29 Oct 2025, 11:00 EDT: hurricane warning for the southeastern and central Bahamas; Melissa's centre 150 mi south of the central Bahamas, 100 mph winds [2] (29 Oct 2025)
- NHC 29 Oct 2025, 23:00 EDT: Melissa's centre 105 mi east-northeast of the central Bahamas, 100 mph winds [6] (29 Oct 2025)
- NHC lists Melissa (AL132025) as a major hurricane; report updated 19 May 2026 [5] (19 May 2026)
Where it sits
Where this risk sits
Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.
- Low 1–3
- Elevated 4–6
- High 7–8
- Severe 9–10
- Bigger circle: higher Impact
- Solid ring: under way
- Red ring: highest Impact on this map
- Where it starts
- Who it reaches
The risk on this map
- A major hurricane (Category 3 or above) passes within 50 nautical miles of the Bahamas before 1 Nov 2027Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 3 of 10, Low. · Bahamas
How it spreads
Between 1 Nov 2026 and 1 Nov 2027, the centre of a hurricane of Category 3 or above (96 kt or more) passes within 50 nautical miles of any island of the Bahamas, as recorded in the US National Hurricane Center's best track.
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- TourismResorts and cruise calls close for weeks (values not sourced).
- Public financesRebuilding adds to public debt (figures not sourced).
- ShippingPorts and the ship registry's home services could be disrupted (Strature's view).
Sectors 2
- Banks and insurers
- Ports and logistics
Countries 2
- Bahamas primary
- United States
Who is exposed
- Countries
- Bahamas, United States
- Sectors
- Banks and insurers, Ports and logistics
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Quiet season
No major hurricane near the islands.
- S2
Near miss
A weaker storm crosses, as Melissa did.
- S3
Major strike
A Category 3 or stronger centre passes within 50 n mi.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | NOAA's May 2027 Atlantic seasonal outlook |
| S2 | An NHC hurricane watch for the Bahamas |
| S3 | An NHC hurricane warning for the Bahamas |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- 30 Nov 2026 End of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season (last month inside the window) [3] Declared · Window
- 1 Jun 2027 Atlantic hurricane season opens [3] Declared · Window
- 1 Nov 2027 End of the scored window [3] Declared · Strature date
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The other side
A quiet season would let the new government's term start without disaster spending, and tourism would gain from other islands' rebuilding (Strature's view).
Connected in Strature
- United States
- A strong El Niño through winter 2026-27 cuts harvests and water supply Driven by: El Niño damps Atlantic hurricanes; NOAA expects a strong event through early 2027, and its decay before the 2027 peak would remove that brake.
- A major hurricane (Category 3 or above) passes within 50 nautical miles of Jamaica before 1 Nov 2027 Shares a channel: The same hazard and season, a separate place and event.
- China takes a formal measure against Panama over its canal ports Shares a channel: That card notes ships moving to the Bahamas flag; a major storm would test the registry's home services.
Sources
6 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Philip Davis and Progressive Liberal Party win general election in Bahamas. Al Jazeera · 13 May 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Hurricane Melissa Advisory 33 (corrected). NOAA National Hurricane Center · 29 Oct 2025 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. Wikipedia · Commentary · confidence low · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- ENSO diagnostic discussion. NOAA Climate Prediction Center · 8 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Tropical Cyclone Reports, 2025 Atlantic (Melissa, AL132025). NOAA National Hurricane Center · 19 May 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Hurricane Melissa Advisory 35. NOAA National Hurricane Center · 29 Oct 2025 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks